2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 20.5 (20th)
Total yards per game: 313 (23rd)
Plays per game: 61.6 (24th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.8 (18th)
Drop back EPA per play: 0.11 (8th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.8 (23rd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.17 (27th)
Coaching Staff
There were some who felt like Todd Bowles may have been on the hot seat after the Bucs backed into a divisional title at 8-9 after the 2022 season. With Tom Brady leading the way, the Bucs were embarrassed at home by the Cowboys and plenty of question marks arose as he retired. One of those questions was answered when the Bucs brought in Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Trask for the starting QB gig. In 2023, the defensive-minded Bowles perhaps bought himself time (in the eyes of the media) after winning the NFC South at 9-8 and then destroying the defending conference champion Eagles in the Wildcard round. Bowles and the Bucs will once again be in the mix for the NFC South, but will face new challenges as the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and subsequently drafted Michael Penix Jr. The Panthers also reloaded by stealing away Bucs former offensive coordinator David Canales to be their head coach. Still, with offensive continuity, the Bucs should be fine on that side of the ball as all key pieces are returning.
Replacing Canales will be Liam Coen who comes over after a year as offensive coordinator/QB coach at Kentucky. A year prior to that he acted as the Rams’ OC. His job will basically be to keep the wheels rolling on what was Mayfield’s best professional season. Coen and Mayfield do have a history as they worked together briefly with the Rams in 2022, which will be a big help as both guys navigate something new. Mayfield stated at the 2024 Pro Bowl that Coen runs a similar system to what the Bucs ran last season so the transition should be solid in that regard.
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Passing Game
QB: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask
WR: Mike Evans, Rakim Jarrett
WR: Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan
WR: Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard
TE: Cade Otton, Ko Kieft, Payne Durham
In 2023, Mayfield put together his best season as a pro, throwing for a career-high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns (with 10 interceptions). Along the way he finished as QB10 in total fantasy points on a healthy 33.2 passing attempts per game. While he didn’t give managers a consistent 20-point floor in fantasy, he was good enough to keep the players around him fantasy relevant and keep the chains moving. Expect much of the same this season as Mayfield, now armed with $50 million in guaranteed money, will have all of his weapons back to run the offense. Last season, Mayfield supplied the Bucs’ running backs with 94 targets which resulted in 82 receptions for 641 yards (most of which went to Rachaad White). Mayfield should be a solid streaming option in a perceived weak NFC South division in 2024.
The man who will continue to make Mayfield look good is Evans. His stock was down coming into last season due to the switch from Tom Brady to Mayfield. All he did was put up his highest receiving yardage total since 2018 going 79-1,255-13. Evans finished as the WR7 in total fantasy points last season and should once again be considered as a top-12 option at the position. Godwin quietly had a respectable season finishing as WR28 with over 1,000 yards. The lack of touchdowns (two) kept his fantasy upside at bay, but that number is bound to go up this season. The wildcard here is figuring out which Bucs’ receiver can play most of the snaps as the team’s WR3. Palmer comes in sitting in the driver’s seat, but will be challenged heavily by rookie Jalen McMillan. Jarrett will have an outside chance while the veteran Sheppard will look to simply make the team. It’ll be tough to see three Bucs’ receivers carrying fantasy relevance this season.
Otton is your standard long shot streaming option at tight end. After a TE20 (47-455-4) finish in 2023, there wasn’t much evidence that showed he could elevate much this season. The biggest positive for him is that he has a stranglehold on the starting position with Ko Kieft and Payne Durham backing him up. Otton will give you solid weeks here and there, but his spot in the pecking order isn’t something you love in fantasy.
Running Game
RB: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Chase Edmonds, Sean Tucker
OL (L-R): Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke
Volume and opportunity is the name of the game in fantasy football and it means the most at the running back position. Despite only averaging 3.6 YPC with his longest run being 38 yards last season, White finished as the RB4 in total fantasy points. He totaled 336 touches (for 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns) which was second in the NFL narrowly trailing Christian McCaffrey (339). His 64 receptions ranked fourth in the NFL by running backs in 2023. White figures to see a similar type of workload unless newly-drafted rookie Irving can cut into some passing down work. Irving certainly has that skill set in his bag as he caught 56 receptions in his final collegiate season at Oregon. Neither White nor Irving back has the breakaway speed that you’d love, but the elusive edge would slightly tilt in the latter’s favor. With Irving’s selection in the draft, Edmonds and Tucker should probably be ruled out as factors unless injuries occur. When it comes to drafting White you have to ask yourself if you can see the Bucs handing him nearly 340 touches again. I would be surprised if the answer is yes.
A mixture of White and the offensive line was the reason that the Bucs finished dead last in rushing yards per game last season (88.8). The Bucs wasted no time in adding to their line by drafting the versatile Barton with the 26th overall pick. He should start out of the gate to help out the young offensive line. The Bucs also brought in Bredeson who was in the same draft as Wirfs. Overall it’s a young unit that’ll need to come together or else we could see the Bucs lean on the passing game once again this season.
Win Total
The Bucs will be a tricky one as their win total sits at 7.5 coming off a season in which they went 9-8 and got a wildcard playoff win over the Eagles. So, why so low? If you dig a little deeper it’ll make more sense. In 2023, the Bucs were a couple of Desmond Ridder turnovers away from getting swept by the Falcons and neither of the Bucs’ late-season wins over the Panthers last season was overly impressive. They kind of won the division by default and speaking of the Panthers, I think they’ll be better than most people think in 2024. When you add in the fact that the Falcons now have Kirk Cousins, it makes everything just a bit more difficult for the overachieving Buccaneers. The NFC South may very well end up being the closest division race in football, but this time I don’t think the Bucs come out on top. Give me the Under on 7.5 wins at +125 (via DraftKings).
