Let the zero-RB recriminations roar. As the “very online” amongst us look to the past to debate the best draft strategies from six weeks ago, new data points keep emerging to either retcon or perfect talking points. It’s been a rough year for … well, basically every approach, but zero-RB in particular is taking its lumps as teams continue to run the ball and receivers drop like flies.
The latest WR injury is a reminder that, more than anything else, chaos takes the day in these arguments. Rashee Rice was just minding his own business after his quarterback threw an interception when … that same quarterback accidentally detonated his knee with a no-look tackle attempt. Awful. Stupefying. Completely random.
The crushing blow for fantasy managers is just as bad for the Chiefs, though the fallout seems obvious. As Denny Carter said on our Sunday evening podcast, Travis Kelce gets his targets back. A battle royale takes place behind him. Will rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy start getting more layup looks? Or will he remain confined to down-field trick shots? The answer Sunday was a 54-yard touchdown and four overall targets.
Absent a trade, the offense has nowhere to go but further inside itself. There are never genuine winners when a star player gets hurt. This time, there won’t even really be any fake ones as none of Skyy Moore, Noah Gray, Justin Watson, etc. have the ability to carve out PPR scam value in Rice’s absence.
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Five Week 4 Storylines
Anthony Richardson (hip) adds new injury to collection. Richardson not only had a problem getting hurt in 2023, he had an issue picking up new injuries. I suppose we can debate whether it’s better to keep aggravating old ailments or suffering new ones, but each new issue is something you can aggravate later on. Richardson had previously never been listed with a hip problem. Now he will be. Supposedly, it’s minor. It wasn’t minor enough for Richardson to play the final three quarters against the Steelers, but he’s projecting optimism he will be ready for Week 5. Fantasy managers should be less optimistic about the fact that a player who already wasn’t running enough seems to get injured every time he takes off. There remain avenues to a monster Richardson 2024. They are just growing fewer by the day. As we saw Sunday, the Colts’ pass catchers might prefer more conventional QB Joe Flacco.
Derrick Henry goes bonkers again as Ravens rev up rushing machine. So much for the slow start that wasn’t even slow. After averaging 65 yards rushing and 4.2 yards per carry in Weeks 1-2, Henry has seen those numbers explode to 175/7.1 over the past two Sundays. He’s lapping the field in overall rush yards over expected and posting the second most RYOE per carry. In short, it’s looking like the best-case scenario for the Ravens and summer fantasy drafters. Henry and Lamar Jackson’s rushing threats are feeding off each other even as the Ravens barely pretend to want to pass. It helps that they’ve been playing with big leads the past two weeks, but it’s not like that will be uncommon. Despite his total lack of pass-game involvement and Lamar competing for goal-line carries, Henry is demanding to be taken seriously as the RB1 overall.
Packers’ target tree goes haywire in Jordan Love’s return, Christian Watson’s exit. With Love looking far from crisp early against the Vikings, the Packers seemed like they wanted to feature the run game for another week or two as Love regained his sea legs. Alas, there is no such luxury when you fall behind 28-0 in the second quarter. Enter career highs across the board for Love, including his three interceptions, one of which helped injure Watson. Although Watson appears to have avoided the worst news, he is still staring at a multi-week absence. That leaves behind a condensed Packers target tree clearly topped by Jayden Reed and … Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks lived many lifetimes in Week 4, including dropping a fourth down touchdown. He also scored twice and kept blowing holes in the defense. Wicks has forced down the door to WR4 status.
Kareem Hunt comes alive in Chiefs’ backfield. Well, that was a little too easy. Taking advantage of an early Carson Steele fumble, Hunt got a lead back look and did not look back. He handled 16-of-24 Chiefs RB touches and was more efficient and productive than both Steele and Samaje Perine. By now we know not to pre-emptively call “game” in this backfield. 29-year-old Hunt also wore down badly for the Browns the past two seasons. It still stands to reason he will, at the very least, get the first “hot hand” opportunity each week. With Rashee Rice done for the year, Hunt could also become an important pass catcher. His third-down chops are on par with Perine’s. Starting out as a touches-based FLEX option, Hunt has room to grow into RB2 status.
Chase Brown finally puts some raw production on the page. Brown had maintained his rookie efficiency through the first three weeks of 2024. Sunday, he finally got some volume and he ran circles around Zack Moss. This should be a two-back backfield. Neither Brown nor Moss profile as someone you want playing every down, at least right now. But Brown had been crying out for more work, and now there is reason to believe he can maintain efficiency and explosiveness on bigger touch counts. Moss isn’t about to go away. It does seem like Brown is arriving as a high-upside, if low-floor, FLEX option. The Bengals desperately need his juice for Week 5 against the Ravens.
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Five More Week 4 Storylines
Tyler Allgeier sounds the committee siren in Atlanta. Here we go again? At least for one week. After playing a minimum of 75 percent of the Falcons’ snaps each of the first three weeks, Bijan Robinson saw that number fall to 64 against the Saints. He got out-carried 8-7 by Allgeier. The game was weird but always close. It wasn’t a matter of closeout mode or anything like that. The Falcons’ coaches just wanted Allgeier more involved after he operated as one of the league’s best change-of-pace backs in Weeks 1-3. It could be a blip, though Robinson managers can’t be thrilled Allgeier turned eight carries into 60 yards with a long gain of only 15. Allgeier was ripping chunks. Bijan still saw the work that mattered most, but consider him a riskier RB1 for Week 5 against the Bucs as we wait for this to play out … again.
Kyler Murray’s slow start continues. Averaging 194 yards passing, Murray has yet to reach 50 on the ground. He’s posted multiple scores one time, and has yet to notch a rushing touchdown. The numbers would be even more bearish if you cut out the Cardinals’ scripted opening drives. Held to 6.5 yards or fewer per attempt in 3-of-4 starts, Murray couldn’t trade Sunday blows with a rookie quarterback being coached by his apparent arch nemesis Kliff Kingsbury. I’ve always wondered how much of the horizontal raid was Kliff vs. Kyler, and while the early 2024 returns don’t signal a clear victor, it’s looking more and more like Murray was at least an integral part of the problem. Supposedly an explosive dual-threat, it’s long past time for Murray to start putting pen to paper. Four Week 5 byes do keep him firmly in the mid-range QB1 mix.
Breece Hall/Braelon Allen split gets weirder. Now out-rushed by Braelon in back-to-back games — contests that featured both closeout and comeback game script — Breece is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and is in the bottom half of the table in rush yards over expected. Part of that is undoubtedly the symptom of a stagnant overall Jets offense. But Allen has been less so, to the degree that coach Robert Saleh has started openly musing about getting him more goal-line work. For now, it remains a mere threat. Hall is still Option A both at the 1-yard line and in the passing game. But rather than closing the door on his talented rookie teammate, Hall is propping it ever more ajar. Week 5 against Brian Flores’ defense in London profiles as a tough spot for this entire Jets attack.
Javonte Williams gets second chance as Broncos lead back. With Tyler Badie limited to five snaps and three touches before suffering an early (scary) back injury, Williams was thrust back into the lead role. He responded with his first good game of the season, as did Jaleel McLaughlin. It looked like the backfield the Broncos thought they were getting heading into the year. With Badie likely to spend some time on injured reserve, that 1-2 combination will get more opportunities against tough(ish) Raiders and Chargers defenses. Matchups haven’t really seemed to matter much so far for the Broncos’ beleaguered backfield — the passing game is not relieving pressure on the run — but Williams deserves another top-36 chance for Week 5.
Xavier Legette auditions for “Deebo lite” role. He got the part. Legette’s 10 targets against the Bengals doubled his previous season total, and he turned the looks into six grabs for 66 yards and a score. He also added two carries for 10 yards. He also also added two drops. There is clearly going to be some good with the bad, but before the season we wondered if there would even be any good. There wasn’t with Bryce Young. With Andy Dalton starting and Adam Thielen on injured reserve, Legette is finally going to get a chance to look like a first-round pick and potential WR4 in fantasy. The Panthers have a tough Week 5 road test in the Bears.
Questions
1. Can the Patriots clearly define a goal for their 2024 other than “end it now”?
2. Does Kyle Pitts … still even look athletic?
3. Why is Kyler Murray dedicating his entire season to slowly exonerating Kliff Kingsbury?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Justin Fields (vs. DAL), Geno Smith (vs. NYG), Derek Carr (@KC), Andy Dalton (@CHI), Daniel Jones (@SEA), Joe Flacco (@JAX)
RB: Kareem Hunt, Rico Dowdle, Trey Sermon, Justice Hill, Tyler Allgeier, Tank Bigsby, Emanuel Wilson, Jaleel McLaughlin
WR: Darnell Mooney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Dontayvion Wicks, Xavier Legette, Josh Downs, Mike Williams
TE: Tucker Kraft, Noah Fant, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, Colby Parkinson
DEF: Broncos (vs. LV), Seahawks (vs. NYG), Packers (@LAR), Raiders (@DEN), Colts (@JAX)
Stats of the Week
Emanuel Wilson has crept above 40 percent of the snaps over the past two weeks. It would appear Matt LaFleur simply can’t quit committees. We’ll see where things stand in what will hopefully be the first normal Jordan Love start of the season in Week 5 against the Rams.
D’Andre Swift became just the second running back all season to command a 30 percent target share Sunday. Oh, and he out-touched Roschon Johnson 23-7 and finally produced. The Panthers are a strong Week 5 matchup.
Sunday was actually the first time Bucky Irving didn’t out-carry Rachaad White. It was also the first time he reached 10 totes. He cleared 40 percent of the Bucs’ snaps for the first time. A committee — and maybe even a changing of the guard — has taken shape.
John Daigle on the Diontae Johnson turnaround: “Diontae Johnson with Bryce Young: 21.8 percent target share. Diontae with Andy Dalton: 35.1 percent.”
The Vikings’ dominance, via Mike Clay: Wild stat: “The Vikings have been ahead on the scoreboard on a league-high 85% of their offensive snaps.”
Two. The number of high-ankle sprains Jonathan Taylor has now suffered since Dec. 2022. Although it’s supposedly “mild,” Taylor is 50-50, at best, for Week 5.
Every Brian Thomas Jr. stat.
Awards Section
Week 4 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Justin Fields, RB Derrick Henry, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Nick Collins, WR Jayden Reed, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Pat Freiermuth
Week 4 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Anthony Richardson, RB Breece Hall, “RB” Carson Steele, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews
Tweet of the Week, from Rodger Sherman: Derrick Henry is going to be the last running back in the Hall of Fame, a god of a religion the world stopped worshiping.
