I called the fight early on Jordan Love. Way too early. This is the kind of thing that can happen when you are required to share your every sports thought. No matter how patient you might be, some impatient takes are going to slip out. I saw the early-season inaccuracy and lack of efficiency as the hallmarks of a shaky prospect who understandably didn’t learn much in the three years he spent holding Aaron Rodgers’ clipboard.
What I didn’t see is that Love is playing a different kind of quarterback. Love operates like the position stopped evolving in 1999. This can be a very good thing. Whereas many modern prospects are hard-wired to check down and take layups and avoid mistakes at all costs, Love actually wants to push the ball down the field. He wants to create offense. He doesn’t want to keep funneling empty targets to his running back and slot options. He wants to be a quarterback.
This will surely create some issues. Love’s 2.5 interception percentage has him in the bottom third of the league, for instance. But it is so refreshing in the age of efficiency at all costs, and a reminder that short passing combined with the occasional highly-choreographed deep shot isn’t the only way to be efficient. You can jack up your yards per attempt and team’s yards per play by, yes, throwing the ball down the field.
One thing that makes that easier is having Christian Watson, who is now again sidelined with his never-ending hamstring issues. It’s highly doubtful that Love’s growing pains have suddenly ceased. But the growth is real. A 25-year-old whom the Packers declined to extend heading into the season has already guaranteed he will be back starting in 2024. It could be a lot longer than that if he continues to harness his unique style of play in this modern passing age.
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Five Week 13 Storylines
Tank Dell’s wonderful rookie campaign ends in brutal fashion. Dell caught zero passes before fracturing his fibula against the Broncos and still remains 28th in receiving at 709. Only Puka Nacua has more yards amongst rookie pass catchers. Dell was having a special year alongside another special young player in C.J. Stroud. If there were concerns about his 5-foot-10, 165-pound frame, they had yet to manifest. Then he was asked to block on a goal-line touchdown run and reminded he shouldn’t be tasked with doing such things. It could also create doubt in the Texans’ minds that he can be a true top-end wideout at his size. Beyond that, Dell’s injury is no walk in the park to come back from. A player who was looking like a top-12 dynasty wideout now has a little more uncertainty.
Big Dog Derrick Henry concussed vs. Colts. Dell wasn’t the only fantasy stud going down on the most injury-marred Sunday in recent weeks. Henry departed after dropping 21/102/2 on the Colts. The good news is, he has an extra day to get healthy for Week 14 with the Titans visiting the Dolphins for Monday Night Football. The bad news is, Henry has become entirely game-script reliant, and there is almost zero chance it will be positive for Tennessee in South Beach. Perhaps the 4-8 Titans won’t even bother to rush back their aging bell-cow. If they do, Henry will be a mid-range RB2. If they don’t, backup Tyjae Spears will have RB2 juice as someone who will monopolize early-down work while likely doing more damage through the air than the Big Dog. Spears is a must-add.
Rhamondre Stevenson jacks up ankle vs. Chargers. Stevenson was looking like a “rare bright spot” for the Pats against the Bolts, taking nine first quarter carries for 39 yards. Then came the hip-drop tackle, taking him out of commission for Thursday’s short-week date with the Steelers and quite likely beyond. It is the last thing this finished offense needed, but there will be plug-and-play RB2 value for Week 14. Ezekiel Elliott cleared 20 touches for the first time all season against the Chargers, and will undoubtedly reach that total against a soft Steelers run defense that will be dealing with Mitch Trubisky on the other side of the ball. As much as you might not like it, Elliott is this week’s clearest add at running back since we don’t even know if Spears will get the start for Tennessee.
Kenny Pickett requires ankle surgery. Which brings us to Pickett. The post-Matt Canada euphoria had worn off against the Cardinals, but there was still time to make a game of it in the second half. Then Pickett wrecked his ankle late in the second quarter and has since undergone surgery. Trubisky’s insertion killed what remained of the good post-Canada vibes, and creates real questions about whether this team can even handle the Pats. The game will at least take place in Pittsburgh, but with the Patriots’ defense still coming to play, Trubisky’s insertion spells “WR4” for both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens in a week where 30-of-32 teams will be active.
De’Von Achane picks up where he left off in return. I didn’t know what to expect in Achane’s return. In hindsight, I don’t know why. The Dolphins have made the rookie back a featured player whenever healthy. Sunday, he was healthy and right back to 20 touches. At long last, the regression did hit. Achane’s long gain went for “just” 21 yards through the air and 15 on the ground. No one is going to pop a 50-yarder every game, while Achane now has a pair knee tweaks to his name. But this is an offense that saw its rushing attack go sideways during Achane’s absence. They have Super Bowl aspirations. They want to get things sorted this final month of the regular season. That means RB1 workloads for Achane and RB1 returns for fantasy managers.
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Five More Week 13 Storylines
Derek Carr gets injured again as Saints’ season reaches the precipice. Carr injured his head, shoulder and back on a brutal fourth quarter hit from Lions LB Bruce Irvin. The Saints were trailing just 33-28 at the time, but that was after a Carr punt-and-turnover palooza helped put them in a 21-0 first quarter hole. Giveaways and big early deficits have become a recent Carr trend, while touchdowns have not. He has one score over his past three appearances. Although Jameis Winston was terrible against the Lions, he was a sparkplug vs. the Vikings in Week 10. With the season on the brink, the Saints have probably reached the point where they won’t be rushing Carr back to face the Panthers, even if their Winston doubts remain grave. Fantasy managers for Saints skill players should absolutely prefer Winston and his shot-play potential.
David Montgomery cools Jahmyr Gibbs’ hot streak. On the other side of the ball in New Orleans, order was being restored to the Lions’ backfield. Not that it’s what fantasy managers wanted. If the Saints’ season is on the brink, the Lions’ is in a lull. The defense can’t stop anybody, increasing the pressure on an offense with less margin for error than one might assume. That’s why it’s not terribly surprising coach Dan Campbell is circling the wagons and resorting to more traditional backfield deployment, in particular featuring David Montgomery near the goal line. We would hope that won’t remain the case for Week 14 against the Bears, though it was these same Bears who began to expose the Lions’ deficiencies in Week 11. With the Lions in danger of playing scared. Gibbs fantasy managers probably need to revert to considering the rookie back a boom/bust RB2.
49ers score touchdowns on six straight drives in Philadelphia. The 49ers posted negative yardage in the first quarter. They decided to go infinite for the final three. Although the Eagles have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, it hadn’t hindered them from going 10-1. On Sunday, the issues were laid bare, confirming the 49ers as the NFC favorite and leaving the Eagles with a lot of work to do as they scramble to consolidate the No. 1 seed. Having fully recovered from their mid-season injury issues, the 49ers don’t look like a team that can be stopped at full strength. The trick, as always, will be staying there. Christmas Day against the Ravens looms as the Niners’ last real test. Philly is on the spot this week against a Cowboys defense reeling from a surprisingly productive Seahawks outing.
Dameon Pierce re-seizes Texans’ backfield. This was one of Week 13’s least fun storylines. One week after Devin Singletary handled 82 percent of the snaps in Pierce’s return he saw that number plunge to 46 percent vs. Denver. Pierce out-touched Singletary 15-9 in a close game, but one the Texans led the entire way. This is apparently who they want to be at full strength in their backfield. Perhaps a “hot hand” situation will develop, but with full slates from here on out save for Washington and Arizona this week, Singletary can no longer be treated as more than a low-floor FLEX. Pierce is a touchdown-dependent option with zero ceiling.
Joe Flacco steadies Browns’ ship, but Amari Cooper suffers concussion. There is one certainty for late-career Joe Flacco: He’s going to attempt 40-plus passes. It doesn’t matter how much your team leans on its defense and run game. Flacco is going to sling it, dammit. That happened in Los Angeles, and will probably happen again in Week 14 against the Jaguars. The Jags are elite against the run and soft vs. the pass. Even if Cooper sits with his head injury, Flacco will lock onto Elijah Moore and David Njoku while perhaps even taking some deep shots to Cedric Tillman. There is a PPR scam in the making in Cleveland.
Questions
1. Did Nathaniel Hackett forget there was supposed to be a step two to beating Sean Payton once?
2. When does the University of Iowa announce Matt Canada’s hiring as OC?
3. Did the Titans ever consider not getting two punts blocked?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Gardner Minshew (@CIN), Jameis Winston (vs. CAR), Josh Dobbs (@LV), Will Levis (@MIA), Joe Flacco (vs. JAX), Aidan O’Connell (vs. MIN)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Tyjae Spears, Roschon Johnson, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle, Chase Brown, Michael Carter
WR: Odell Beckham, Demario Douglas, Elijah Moore, Noah Brown, Curtis Samuel, Jonathan Mingo, Jalin Hyatt, Greg Dortch, DeVante Parker
TE: Isaiah Likely, Gerald Everett, Cade Otton, Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Conklin, Tucker Kraft, Zach Ertz (FA)
DEF: Saints (vs. CAR), Patriots (@PIT), Colts (@CIN), Texans (@NYJ), Packers (@NYG), Broncos (@LAC)
Stats of the Week
Via ESPN Stats and Info: “The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to allow 10-or-fewer points in three straight games and lose all three.”
From Mr. Field Yates: “After 32.2 points yesterday, Tyreek Hill now has five games with 30-plus fantasy points this season. That’s the same number as Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson combined.”
Rich Hribar on the Jets’ staggering offensive ineptitude: “56.3 percent of the offensive scoring plays in the NFL this season have been touchdowns. 28.6 percent of the Jets’ scoring plays this season have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. The next closest team (the Steelers) is at 42.1 percent.”
Via Adam Harstad: “Reminder that Kyler Murray (5' 10 1/8") to Rondale Moore (5' 7") is the shortest combined passing touchdown since Pard Pearce (5' 5") threw one to Dutch Sternaman (5' 8") on the 1920 Decatur Staleys.”
Awards Section
Week 13 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Geno Smith, RB De’Von Achane, RB Alvin Kamara, WR DK Metcalf, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Nico Collins, TE Sam LaPorta
Tweet of the Week, from Nick Mensio: Trevor Siemian is somehow worse than Tim Boyle. Dude loads up like a batting cage pitching machine.
Sam Howell Play of the Week: Sam Howell throwing a pick-six on a receiver (or was it running back?) screen.
Best NFL Tradition of the Week: Refs forgetting that penalties are even a concept on Hail Marys.
Jon Snow Player of the Week: Puka Nacua for coming back from the “dead,” in the words of coach Sean McVay.
