It was a good spot for Bo Nix. Good enough, in fact, that he was considered a consensus QB1 for probably the first time all season. The results? A QB4 overall finish and his second best fantasy outing of the year. The best was fueled by a weak Panthers matchup and rushing touchdown. Sunday was something different. Nix did something we weren’t positive he could actually do: Pass the lights out.
Everything was a new career high, from the 307 yards and four touchdowns to the 84.9 completion percentage and 9.3 yards per attempt. It was a “good matchup,” but how good are any matchups, really, when your top weapons are Courtland Sutton and, uhh, we’ll get back to you on that.
Either way, Nix did what he was expected to do in a plus home environment. How excited can we really get? Plenty, because that is always the unacknowledged step one for young players, or really, any good player: You have to take advantage when you’re given a good setup. Frequently in these situations, the young quarterback becomes the safe harbor for the struggling defense instead of vice versa. Nix didn’t let the Falcons off the hook, and now he has fantasy managers dreaming of a fast finish.
Expect more stops and starts. A domed Raiders showdown for Week 12? Smash spot. A Week 13 home date with the Browns? To be determined. The Colts and Jaguars are more uncertain affairs the two weeks after. That, combined with Nix’s ever-shaky supporting cast means there will be more peaks and valleys. But as we’ve said so many times before, you don’t take the peaks for granted. The players have to prove they can provide them. Nix has done so.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Five Week 11 Storylines
Anthony Richardson returns from bench to post best career start. Richardson has one weird problem: The shorter the pass, the less accurate it becomes. So bountiful are his physical gifts that trying to harness them makes them malfunction. Alas, Sunday he solved the problem by leaning into what he does best: Longer throws, and dangerous runs. Nowhere was Richardson’s promise more apparent than at the goal line, where he appeared almost literally unstoppable. Defenders bounced around like beach balls. There was encouragement through the air, as well. This is a collapsing Jets defense, but Richardson did not provide respite the way a struggling quarterback might. Instead, he took advantage of them for a new career outing as a passer. It was a test he desperately needed to pass. Encouraging, though Week 12 failure against the ravenous Lions should remain the expectation.
Jaguars get Doug Pederson fired* in spectacularly ignominious fashion. *How ignominious? The Jags still haven’t confirmed the move as of Monday morning. Better to let the ol’ ball coach twist in the wind just a bit longer. There wasn’t much twisting going on in Detroit. This was as comprehensive of a failure as you will ever see in professional sports. The Jags quit. More charitably, they probably just knew there was no point in trying with Mac Jones under center. “Under center” becomes the sole focus moving forward. If Trevor Lawrence opts for shoulder surgery during the Week 12 bye, Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram will be barely playable moving forward. The run game? Forget it. We have scarcely seen scripts this negative.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba out-targets, out-produces DK Metcalf in his return. As Jacob Gibbs points out, this maybe wasn’t the plan coming into the contest. For the first half, the Seahawks continued to treat Metcalf like the alpha. With the game — and season — on the line in the second, however, it was JSN commanding the “first read” looks after he so dominated in Metcalf’s Week 9 absence. He got the statline, and the Seahawks got the win. I’m a Metcalf booster, but this feels like a better way forward for Geno Smith and company. Let JSN’s modern, inside-out game be the primary read as Metcalf goes to work terrorizing corners on the boundary. JSN is a better place to force-feed targets. As defenses respond, then hit Metcalf on the sideline. The practical implications are that Metcalf solidifies as a WR2 rather than WR1, and JSN crashes the top 24.
Deebo Samuel falls further behind Jauan Jennings in targets arms race. We didn’t really need any more confirmation, but we got it anyways: Jennings is a target commander. Really, a target dominator. Even with the Niners’ injuries mounting and the season increasingly on the line, Samuel has never looked like more of a role player. It’s time for fantasy managers to take notice. Jennings can never be outside the top 20, while Samuel is probably best treated as a WR2/3 borderline option. He isn’t seeing enough targets, and he’s no longer flipping matchups with his rushing usage. It would be silly to say Samuel’s ceiling has disappeared, but he is no longer pairing it with a consistent enough floor.
Kirk Cousins slides into first real slump as Falcon. The one constant of Cousins’ career? Rug pulls. That made his relative Weeks 2-9 consistency a modest surprise. There were a few hiccups, but they weren’t strung together. No more. Cousins saved his worst two starts for the past two weeks, and the problem could compound following the Falcons’ Week 12 bye. They come out of the open week with dates against the Chargers and Vikings’ strong defenses. The Raiders, Giants and Commanders then await for the fantasy playoffs. That means Cousins will be relevant when it matters most even if you don’t have the stomach to roster him the next three weeks. That’s highly inconvenient. It’s also Cousins to a T.
Don’t forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, or follow @Rotoworld_FB or @RotoPat on Twitter.
Five More Week 11 Storylines
Giants finally admit the inevitable, bench Daniel Jones. Of course, the inevitable was followed by the ineffable: Instead of Drew Lock, the G-Men have opted to ride the Tommy DeVito magic carpet one final time. Maybe they’ll discover lightning in a bottle. Better yet? They’ll come nowhere close to winning a single game, improving their draft position and setting the pins up for the post Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen regime to knock down. That seems to be where this is going. Which means things are going nowhere for fantasy managers who have been relying on Malik Nabers. Already struggling in the wake of his concussion issues, Nabers’ quarterback play is headed for a severe downgrade that would not have seemed possible if you got used to watching Jones. Nabers is now a prayer-based WR2. Tyrone Tracy? Game scripts are likely to be haywire, but the schedule is at least soft. 15 weekly touches is probably still a given, keeping Tracy FLEX relevant with ample opportunity to crash the top 24.
Patrick Mahomes looks further away from figuring it out instead of closer. The loss, of course, was not surprising. Even as two-time defending champions, there had rarely been less impressive 9-0 teams. It is surprising that the post-DeAndre Hopkins bump was as short lived as it was. Then again, one player alone was never going to fix what ailed this offense. That’s if the Chiefs even believe anything is ailing. Although running this approach back was not their first choice, it’s one they knew remained in the quiver. With Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice’s injuries putting too much on overmatched rookie Xavier Worthy’s plate, the Chiefs are comfortable with this slop-it-up approach. That’s why, even with the Panthers on deck for Week 12, Mahomes has probably now proven for good he won’t be returning to the top 12 this season. A tragedy for fans of high-scoring football, but a proven way to hang banners in Kansas City.
Jerry Jeudy has his best game in years ahead of brutal schedule stretch. Jeudy’s 142 yards were the second most of his five seasons in the NFL. It was also the first time in 22 months be crossed the 100-yard threshold. That’s what Jameis Winston can do for you, but the Lake Erie Miracle could already be in its final days. That’s because after yesterday’s domed track meet with a struggling Saints defense, the Browns must now face, in order: vs. PIT, @DEN, @PIT, vs. KC. The schedule then lightens significantly for Weeks 16-18, but you might not even be playing then if you were relying on Browns for Weeks 12-15. As depressing as it is, fantasy managers need to consider any near-future Cleveland contributions a bonus. That means WR3 hedges for Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, and strict QB2/superflex status for Winston.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR1 season rolls on. All MVS needed was … the most mediocre quarterback of all time? Well, that and zero target competition. After struggling with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, Derek Carr has unlocked MVS’ best two-game yardage total since 2020. This being MVS, it’s come on five total catches, all but begging fantasy managers to remember he has a zero-point floor. But now they also remember the ceiling. Perhaps they shouldn’t. Relying on MVS as a boom/bust WR4 feels all but guaranteed to cost you a matchup. But maybe, just maybe, it will win you one. That’s always been the MVS trade-off. You can make it when the Saints come off bye in Week 13 against the Rams if you are desperate for some upside.
The Rams subtly back off Kyren Williams’ hero usage. It’s not just that Williams’ 15 touches in New England were a new season low. It’s that he’s handled “only” 15 totes in back-to-back weeks, tied for his second lowest mark of the season. Sunday, he wasn’t targeted for just the second time all year. This, as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp dominated and rookie Blake Corum handled actual breather work. It could be just a blip, but it is a convenient time to reassess Williams’ rankings standing with Nacua and Kupp continuing to cook. Dialed back in raw overall touches and by definition losing touchdown opportunities to better players in his wideout teammates, Williams is looking like more of a back-end RB1 than the top-five option he was the first 2/3 of the season.
Questions
1. How do the Bengals score touchdowns every single drive yet never win?
2. What does Justin Tucker being washed portend for the future of America?
3. Is there really any point in making Patrick Mahomes play regular season games anymore?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Bo Nix (@LV), Russell Wilson (@CLE), Drake Maye (@MIA), Jameis Winston (vs. PIT), Anthony Richardson (vs. DET), Daniel Jones (vs. TB)
RB: Roschon Johnson, Cam Akers, Jaylen Wright, Gus Edwards, Tank Bigsby, Blake Corum, Braelon Allen, Ameer Abdullah, Dylan Laube
WR: Christian Watson, Quentin Johnston, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Ray-Ray McCloud, Alec Pierce, Elijah Moore, Devaughn Vele, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kayshon Boutte
TE: Hunter Henry, Will Dissly, Zach Ertz, Isaiah Likely
DEF: Commanders (vs. DAL), Bucs (@NYG) … and that’s about it
Stats of the Week
The Ravens are 1-8 in their past nine matchups with the Steelers. The John Harbaugh/Lamar Jackson regime has to find a way to break through in these big games.
Via the inimitable Rich Hribar: “Since firing Robert Saleh, the Jets have allowed 2.66 points per opponent drive (1.39 points per drive prior). That is ahead of only the Jaguars (2.70), Cowboys (2.82), and Raiders (2.83).”
Steve Palazzolo on the Jets’ infinite sadness: “Winning percentage as Jets starting QB: Zach Wilson .364. Sam Darnold .342. Aaron Rodgers .273.”
Via Hayden Winks: Taysom Hill’s Browns pantsing resulted in the fifth most “tight end” fantasy points of all time. Imagine if he were actually a tight end. Then again, imagine if he weren’t such a unique player with a claim to four different positions.
27 minutes. That’s how long the Jets went without a first down against the Colts. There’s over, and then there’s over.
Awards Section
Week 11 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Jared Goff, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Breece Hall, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Tee Higgins, WR Cooper Kupp, “TE” Taysom Hill
Week 11 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Aaron Jones, RB Tony Pollard, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Deebo Samuel, TE Travis Kelce
Tweet of the Week, from Jake K: Be sure to remind your family at Thanksgiving that for their sins we have to watch Tommy DeVito vs. Cooper Rush.
Hero of the Week: J.K. Dobbins, for understanding you never, ever slide when the end zone is in sight.
