Tank Bigsby’s ascension has not come out of nowhere. The Jags themselves have been saying they wanted it since the winter. Bigsby was going to get every opportunity to earn work this season. He has, and he keeps cashing in the carries for more work.
Sunday, Travis Etienne may have cashed out of the lead role. With Bigsby once again running circles around his backfield mate with thundering touchdown runs of 19 and 65 yards, he also outright out-carried Etienne for the first time. Bigsby out-snapped Etienne for the game and was featured exclusively over him in the fourth quarter.
Now leading the NFL in average rush yards over expected, Bigsby has done quite literally everything possible to seize the Jags’ 1A role. I’m expecting him to have it for Week 6 against a tough Bears defense that is nevertheless more forgiving on the ground than it is through the air.
Five Week 5 Storylines
Ravens’ passing explosion equals just 4/55 for Mark Andrews. Lamar Jackson threw for the third most yards of his career and attempted the fifth most passes. If there were ever a game where his tight ends were going to go off, this was it. And they did, scoring three touchdowns. Two for Isaiah Likely and one for … Charlie Kolar. It was Kolar who had the biggest gain of the game, an uncovered 55-yard seam buster. That leaves Andrews on the outside looking in of what will probably be the Ravens’ most pass-friendly game script all year. What in the world are we supposed to do with that? Amidst the industry-wide crash at tight end, I continue to believe in “pedigree.” Andrews has always been good. I guess I’m not dropping him. Starting him? Well you already know the answer there.
Joe Flacco checks in and immediately does his Joe Flacco thing. Every once in a while there’s some analysis that feels a little too easy. Like predicting Flacco would come in off the bench and immediately shred the Jags’ sorry pass defense. Alas, we were right. Flacco posted his third most yards since the beginning of his miraculous 2023 comeback and there was nothing cheap about it. Trading blows in a track meet, he hit his check-down goals with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs and nearly saved the day with his fourth quarter down-field strikes to Alec Pierce. Like a remnant of the Brees/Brady/Manning golden age, Flacco got in rhythm and never lost it. He is clearly the Colts’ best bet if they want to maximize their 2024 winning potential, but considering the overall sorry state of the roster, developing Anthony Richardson is going to justifiably take the day. That means Pittman and Downs will probably go back into WR2/3 hibernation just as quickly as they appeared.
Bills’ offense further implodes in Texans loss. It was back to the bad old days of Josh Allen’s rookie year in Houston, though this time the quarterback wasn’t entirely at fault. Missing Khalil Shakir, the Bills’ stitched-together receiver corps came apart at the seams, with each of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Dalton Kincaid committing costly drops. That, of course, is not the only reason Allen completed just 30 percent of his throws, but it killed any shot he had at finding rhythm. His undiagnosed second half concussion didn’t help, either. Without a rushing score since Week 1 and with only two multi passing touchdown performances all year, Allen has lost his grip on QB1 overall status. But — you knew there would be a but — we know dropping him and his rushing threat out of the top five would be foolhardy. As is the case so many other places this season, you just have to ride the wave of inconsistency.
Trevor Lawrence finally gets on track with career-best passing effort. Listen, Lawrence was hitting wide-open dudes against the Colts. Brian Thomas Jr. just ran by the defense on his 85-yard touchdown. Christian Kirk was unguarded on his 61-yard, non-scoring grab. And yet, hitting wide open, streaking pass catchers was not something we were taking for granted with Lawrence in Weeks 1-4. Maybe the windows were a little bigger against the Colts, but Lawrence finally took what the defense gave him, and the result was a hope-creating effort going forward, especially with Evan Engram about to re-join the mix. All that being said, the Bears are a foreboding Week 6 matchup, one where we will still be keeping Lawrence well outside the top 12.
Nico Collins suffers hamstring injury vs. Bills. That was the worst-case scenario. The best-case scenario? Collins reportedly escaped with a day-to-day issue. That can be a bit difficult to believe with a hamstring ailment, but Collins successfully managed a calf problem the same way last season. Not as reliant on speed or explosiveness as some of his elite WR1 compatriots, maybe Collins is better at navigating the NFL grind at less than full health. With the non-competitive Pats on tap for Week 6, fantasy managers should probably still count on at least one missed contest, but injured reserve seems out of the question. My best guess is Collins will be back for Week 7 against the Packers.
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Five More Week 5 Storylines
Tyrone Tracy shows out in Devin Singletary’s absence. Tracy’s 100-yard day on the ground was the first by any Giants running back this season. His 7.2 yards per carry were obviously the most. His numbers were not inflated by a 50- or 60-yard run. He was just constantly ripping off 7-8 yard gains, helping the Giants spring the road upset over the Seahawks. (Per Jaocb Gibbs: “Tracy is the only RB in the NFL to gain positive yardage on every single run in a game with 15-plus rush attempts during the 2024 season.”) We know Singletary won’t simply be banished to the bench upon his return, but unlike the situations with Chase Brown or Tank Bigsby — second-year pros in backfields that clearly want to be committees — Tracy is an impressive rookie in what had previously been a one-back attack. The 1A guard could change rather quickly here.
Chase Brown progresses as Zack Moss injures ankle. Early in the season, I understood the case for the Bengals’ split backfield. Let Moss handle some of the cannon fodder between-the-tackles carries and allow Brown to receive the more big-play friendly touches. But we are now in Week 5 and Moss isn’t rising above his journeyman status while Brown continues to lap him in the efficiency metrics and out-gain him on the ground. Especially with Moss now having an ankle injury, the time has come to make Brown the leader of this committee. And that’s what this will remain: A committee. Fantasy managers can’t count on Brown becoming a weekly top-24 option. Unless … Moss misses Week 6 and Brown cashes in a start against the Giants. Even if Moss is active against the G-Men, Brown has progressed to higher-end FLEX status.
Dontayvion Wicks turns in one of 2024’s biggest fantasy stink bomb performances. We knew the Packers’ comeback-aided Week 4 box score must be approached with caution, that Jordan Love would not be dropping back 60 times in Los Angeles. The Wicks case still seemed clear-cut with Christian Watson injured and Romeo Doubs suspended. Even if Wicks left meat on the bone like he did against the Vikings, he was still guaranteed to have a usable fantasy effort. Well, this time he wasted the entire chicken wing. Love attempted just 26 passes and Wicks blew damn near all his opportunities. Now a certified Dropper™, Wicks is playing head games with himself, the Packers’ coaching staff, and fantasy managers. With Doubs likely back for Week 6 against the Cardinals’ shaky defense, Wicks can be dropped back into the boom/bust WR3 range.
Deshaun Watson’s play somehow sinks even lower. The Commanders entered Week 5 allowing a league-worst 123.3 QB rating against. An imperfect metric, to be sure, but a clear indication that … this team isn’t effectively policing the skies. They were also surrendering the third most QB fantasy points. It was a matchup where Watson had to turn the tide. Instead, he remains out to sea. Both his 15 completions and 125 yards passing were new season lows, while his 4.5 yards per attempt were his second lowest mark. He has yet to exceed a 5.5 YPA in any of his five starts. It’s now brutally clear that, even considering his offensive line woes, Watson is not the best player to be leading this offense. It’s equally clear the Browns will never financially recover if they bench him. Watson is going to continue starting. That means we need to consider benching Amari Cooper, and tempering expectations for an injured-again David Njoku.
De’Von Achane’s season goes further off the rails with concussion. There’s not much analysis to mete out here. The one thing that Achane managers couldn’t have happen happened. He already wasn’t producing, but now he’s hurt and Jaylen Wright produced in his stead. The good news is he might not miss any game time with the Dolphins on bye for Week 6. The worry is the Dolphins go with a three-back attack for the final game of Tua Tagovailoa’s absence in Week 7 and Achane’s workload is no longer as assured upon Tua’s expected Week 8 return. We’ll never know what might have happened had Tua not gone down. But he did, and Achane is looking like one of the most painful busts of the 2024 season, including very much for my fantasy teams.
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Questions
1. Remember when Aaron Rodgers used to smile occasionally?
2. Have the 49ers considered no longer coming out of the tunnel to “The Sounds of Silence”? (link)
3. Has Sean McDermott ever watched the end of a football game before?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Joe Flacco (@TEN), Derek Carr (vs. TB), Daniel Jones (vs. CIN), Aaron Rodgers (vs. BUF), Andy Dalton (vs. ATL)
RB: Tank Bigsby, Tyrone Tracy, Ty Chandler (bye), Braelon Allen, Justice Hill, Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Wright (bye)
WR: Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Jordan Whittington, Michael Wilson, Jalen Tolbert, Ray-Ray McCloud, DeMario Douglas, Darius Slayton
TE: Cade Otton, Tyler Conklin, Colby Parkinson, Jonnu Smith (bye), Theo Johnson
DEF: Texans (@NE), Eagles (vs. CLE), Colts (@TEN), Falcons (@CAR), Chargers (@DEN)
Stats of the Week
Two. The approximate number of seconds Rhamondre Stevenson’s benching lasted before he went on to have his best fantasy performance since Week 1. Antonio Gibson simply does not have the juice between the tackles.
Via Ian Hartitz: “Jets points scored in Weeks 1-5, 2023: 93. Jets points scored in Weeks 1-5, 2024: 93.” (link)
Mr. Ian Hartitz again: “Only three RBs have failed to average more than 4 yards per touch this season (minimum 50 touches): Zamir White (3.1), Kyren Williams (3.95) and Breece Hall (4.0).”
59. That was George Pickens’ snap percentage against the Cowboys. Arthur 👏 Smith 👏 Has 👏 Logged 👏 On 👏
Benjamin Solak on the Jets’ lack of explosive plays: “Per ESPN, Garrett Wilson’s 101 receiving yards is the second-lowest for any pass-catcher with 20-plus targets in a game (since 2006) The lowest? 79 yards on 21 targets for Davante Adams in 2015 (his QB was also Aaron Rodgers).”
Awards Section
Week 5 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Tank Bigsby, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Drake London, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Tucker Kraft
Week 5 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Josh Allen, RB Breece Hall, RB Travis Etienne, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Deebo Samuel, WR Dontayvion Wicks, TE Dalton Kincaid
Tweet of the Week, from Kevin Durant: “Put Flacco anywhere and he’s gonna hoop.”
The That Didn’t Look Easy Award: Jalen Tolbert remaining in the game to score the winning touchdown after taking a football to a … sensitive region.
The, Uhh, That’s Not Really The Spirit of the Peanut Punch Award: T.J. Watt always viciously, wantonly punching people trying to create fumbles.