2024 was the most “not for long” offseason in NFL history. There were a record-tying eight vacancies — 25 percent of the league — and luminaries amidst the carnage. Mike Vrabel separately reached an AFC Championship Game and earned a No. 1 seed during his six years in Tennessee. He had two losing seasons. Sacked. Pete Carroll had one losing campaign in 12 tries since 2011. Gone. Bill Belichick? Not only fired, he could barely even get an interview after the fact.
Teams are refusing to be borne back ceaselessly into the past, instead ruthlessly staying the course of football’s future. Efficient offenses. Ever-more sophisticated defenses. “Player’s coaches.” The good ol’ boys network has been replaced by the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay assembly line. The league still loves a good legacy hire, but it better be from the right tree.
As I say every year, players, owners, assistants, injuries and acts of God can matter as much as coaching ability. That’s why, though this is a rankings article, I try not to think of it that way. I view it as more of an almanac, an assessment of where the league’s 32 coaches find themselves right now. How they got here and where they might be going. Last year’s list can be found here. 2022’s is here.
Who is the best coach in the NFL?
1. Andy Reid, Chiefs
Career Record: 258-145-1 (.641)
With The Chiefs Since: 2013
Last Year’s Ranking: 1
One reason Andy Reid is still winning Super Bowls and Bill Belichick is on forced sabbatical? Reid made the adjustment. Everyone — and we are assuming most of all, Reid — loves Patrick Mahomes’ down-field pyrotechnics. But the Chiefs just didn’t have the weapons in 2023. What did Reid do? He didn’t hire Bill O’Brien or Matt Patricia for the third time. He took his medicine and made Mahomes a game manager. The Chiefs scored 371 points, good for 15th in the league: And their third Lombardi in five seasons. It wasn’t only Reid’s play-calling, of course. It was also what he offered on the defensive side of the ball: Autonomy. Steve Spagnuolo runs his unit, and he does so without fear of interference or overbearance. Reid trusts his eyes and his people. One of the greatest coaches in NFL history is now in position to make an end-around on some of Belichick’s supposedly-unassailable records if he sticks around long enough.
2. Sean McVay, Rams
Career Record: 70-45 (.609)
With The Rams Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 3
Bill Belichick is gone, but his kind remains. Sean McVay does not present the same brusque demeanor, but he can be just as ruthless. No one cuts their losses on failed moves faster. A complete master of the most minute details, McVay also insists on a fundamental, basic approach. Field goals will be kicked. The punting will continue until morale improves. Yet there he always is, contending for the division and making playoff runs even if the analytics say he left points on the field. And then there’s the brain trust. Not even Belichick had to deal with as much turnover as McVay, whose staff is raided on a yearly basis to a comical degree. Unlike Belichick, McVay’s deputies go on to find success elsewhere. Also unlike Belichick, McVay replaces them with a wide swath of both internal and external candidates, hires whose only directive is to approach the game in a thoughtful way. Sometimes it’s innovative, sometimes it’s old school. It’s always effective. With Aaron Donald retired and the roster low on depth, 2024 could be a difficult campaign. There is no current coach better equipped for the challenge.
3. John Harbaugh, Ravens
Career Record: 160-99 (.618)
With The Ravens Since: 2008
Last Year’s Ranking: 4
John Harbaugh seamlessly slides between eras. He won a Super Bowl with one of the last pocket leviathans, Joe Flacco, and has a pair of MVP trophies with the ultimate dual-threat, Lamar Jackson. He embraces analytics like few in the game but still relies on old faithful: An elite defense and running game. That’s why it’s bizarre he’s won only three playoff games in 11 seasons since the Ravens’ Lombardi-lifting 2012-13. How does a coach who does everything right from both a traditional and modern perspective keep coming up short in the postseason? The most likely answer is also the most boring: Harbaugh has lived long enough to become unlucky. There is no fundamental reason his teams haven’t won a more recent Super Bowl. Sometimes the AFC just effortlessly segues from Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. Knowing he doesn’t have that era-defining player, Harbaugh will keep working to make sure he remains with the times everywhere else. Sooner or later, this team will be ready when Mahomes stumbles.
4. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
Career Record: 64-51 (.557)
With The 49ers Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 5
There is something a little uncanny about Kyle Shanahan’s system that breeds mistrust. You shouldn’t be able to just turn on the EPA computer and make Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy above-average starters. And yet, it’s not a computer, and they are. In an era that venerates the “system,” none is more imposing or more consistently successful than Shanahan’s. Andy Reid is as good of an offensive mind, but he now has Patrick Mahomes. Sean McVay is similarly capable of spinning straw into gold, but he hedged and traded for Matthew Stafford. Shanahan alone — with the major exception of a Trey Lance fever dream — has placed absolute trust in his scheme, and the results have been four NFC Championship Game appearances in five years. Yes, that includes a pair of Super Bowl losses where Shanny did not have his best day on the sideline. His decision to take the ball in this year’s overtime period — which led to giddy disbelief on the Chiefs’ sideline — will live in football infamy. But like Reid before him, Shanahan’s Sunday imperfections ultimately highlight his strengths as much as his weaknesses. You can only lose the biggest games if you are playing in them. The reason Shanny needs to work on the little things is because he has already mastered the big ones. It’s a matter of when, not if, he joins the Super Bowl-winning ages.
5. Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Career Record: 173-100-2 (.633)
With The Steelers Since: 2007
Last Year’s Ranking: 6
2023 settled the matter for good: Mike Tomlin is a lot more than just his quarterbacks. What already seemed obvious during the Ben Roethlisberger era became indisputable with Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky stinking up the joint last season before Mason Rudolph somehow served as the stretch-run savior. Rudolph’s three games under center produced a 3-0 record and yet another Tomlin back-door playoff qualification, this one his most absurd yet. 10-7 with a -20 point differential. What might seem like luck with any other coach was simply more of the same with Tomlin. No one is better at whipping together a roster, or “making do” with more imperfect setups. By now, Tomlin has weathered bad offensive lines, the occasional bad defense, and increasingly poor quarterback play. None of it has knocked him below .500 in 17 years on the job. It’s true that, at some point, the Steelers have to again start clearing more than the lowest bar of sneaking into the playoffs. But if this is Tomlin’s floor, the ceiling should come roaring back.
6. Matt LaFleur, Packers
Career Record: 56-27 (.675)
With The Packers Since: 2019
Last Year’s Ranking: 13
There’s a reason most great coaches are remembered alongside great quarterbacks. The mystery is always what’s going to happen after so-and-so rides off into the sunset. Matt LaFleur glimpsed this reality in 2022 when Aaron Rodgers looked tired and uninspired with the Packers’ rebuilding skill corps. When the quarterback shipped out the following spring, the LaFleur question was laid bare: Can he do it without Rodgers? Perhaps unsurprisingly, everyone ahead of LaFleur on this list has survived a quarterback transition. LaFleur is well on his way after enduring some Jordan Love growing pains that eventually blossomed into a stunning Wild Card upset of the Cowboys. So LaFleur can now credibly claim his early success wasn’t only about Rodgers. That doesn’t mean he has settled every doubt. LaFleur has had a shockingly difficult time finding the right defensive coordinator, and he hasn’t always done his best work in the biggest games. Packers fans still aren’t over his field goal decision in the 2021 NFC Championship Game. But those question marks belie an increasingly lengthy track record of success, one matched by only the game’s very best. Even if you have Hall-of-Fame help along the way, it is exceedingly difficult to win at least one playoff game three of your first five seasons. A well-balanced leader who handles his business on his offensive side of the ball, LaFluer appears to be a decade-plus keeper in Green Bay.
7. Dan Campbell, Lions
Career Record: 29-33-1 (.468)
With The Lions Since: 2021
Last Year’s Ranking: 14
Being an NFL head coach long ago ceased to be about merely leadership. The modern front man is supposed to be media savvy, a game management expert, and preferably have his own unique offensive scheme that generates “expected points added” regardless of who is actually in the huddle. Or at least that’s what we’ve told ourselves, because none of it is really possible if the players don’t believe. That’s why Josh McDaniels is waiting for another Bill Belichick bailout and Dan Campbell is getting ready to defend an NFC North crown. Leadership comes in many different forms. No one is going to mistake Kyle Shanahan’s style for Antonio Pierce’s or vice versa. Not everyone has it, but everyone who does has their own unique approach. No one is more emblematic of that fact than Campbell, who despite his jacked-up frame, gruff voice, and sludge-metal goatee is actually on the vanguard of modern NFL leadership practices. Campbell speaks more like a new-age sage than fire-and-brimstone Lombardian, and the returns have compounded instead of dissipated. Campbell has absolute buy-in from a roster led by a replacement-level quarterback, and the win total has gone from three to nine to 12. Campbell might eventually hit a wall without a better signal caller, but he has his players primed to run right through it.
8. Sean McDermott, Bills
Career Record: 73-41 (.640)
With The Bills Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 7
The Bills have won 10-plus games five straight seasons and at least one playoff contest four consecutive years. So why is Sean McDermott firing coordinators? Well, that’s not entirely accurate. He’s also hiring them. McDermott was his own defensive boss in 2023 but evidently didn’t like the experience, promoting LBs coach Bobby Babich in January. This was after he fired OC Ken Dorsey in November following a horrific Week 10 loss to the Broncos that hinged in part on a too-many-men-on-the-field penalty. That’s on the head coach, though Dorsey was hardly blameless in the twin fiascos of the Broncos stunner and 5-5 start to the season. His firing nevertheless highlighted one of the charges levied against McDermott in a breathtakingly petty but apparently accurate “Go Long” expose: The head coach likes to pass the buck. He also has a tendency to tilt out of his mind at the game’s biggest moments, undermining what remains strong defensive work. McDermott can scheme players up on his side of the ball. As for leading them? Let’s just say it is somehow not a joke that McDermott once tried to motivate the team by … positively citing the 9/11 hijackers. McDermott is lucky to still have a job after 2023 but not necessarily unworthy. His record says he’s 73-41. His reality says he better at least make the AFC Championship Game in 2024-25.
9. Zac Taylor, Bengals
Career Record: 37-44-1 (.457)
With The Bengals Since: 2019
Last Year’s Ranking: 12
Like early-career Kyle Shanahan, Zac Taylor has more losses than wins. Like early-career Matt LaFleur, we’ve never seen Taylor make the playoffs without his superstar quarterback. Like both those guys, Taylor seems pretty good at his job. That was never more evident than when Taylor did indeed lose Joe Burrow last Week 11 and still managed to go 3-1 over the next month with Jake Browning at the controls. We would be kidding ourselves if we read too deeply into that four-game sample size, but at the very least, Taylor has proven he’s not going to be the one to hold Burrow back. That seemingly low bar has proven shockingly difficult for many dictatorial NFL head coaches to clear. Taylor understands the fortunate hand he’s been dealt. He lets Burrow and DC Lou Anarumo do their thing. A surprisingly fiery sideline presence, Taylor is usually thoughtful in his post-game press conferences. We don’t know how much credit Taylor deserves. We give him credit for making it unclear.
10. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Career Record: 37-30 (.552)
With The Browns Since: 2020
Last Year’s Ranking: 16
Kevin Stefanski waited a long time to follow up his smash 2020 debut “first Browns playoff victory since 1995,” but 2023 was worth the wait. Soldiering through the kind of quarterback chaos that has become a simple fact of Browns life, Stefanski shook off Deshaun Watson’s nonstop injuries and seeming indifference to rally around Joe Flacco and play some of the best Browns football in recent memory. The stretch-run feelgoods somewhat predictably imploded in a hail of Flacco Wild Card interceptions, though it did not detract from a campaign where Stefanski proved he is no one-hit wonder. We hope he also proved something to himself: That if he can open up his offense to suit Flacco’s slinging style, the same can be done with Watson. Because for however much blame Watson deserves for his Browns struggles — a lot — it can also be said that Stefanski has never seemed entirely comfortable handing over the reins of the offense. He must do so in 2024, if for no other reason than to discern if Watson still has what it takes to play elite offensive football. It’s been more frustrating than expected, but Stefanski still looks like a keeper in Cleveland.
11. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
Career Record: 20-14 (.588)
With The Dolphins Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 17
Mike McDaniel can be the kind of coach where we debate the particulars — why does the offense cool off down the stretch, who is the defensive coordinator going to be? — at the expense of the broad. By any reasonable measure, he is one of the best first-time head coaches in some time. Now it’s just about taking the next step. Which does bring us back to those particulars. Has McDaniel already reached his GaroppoloMaximum™ with Tua Tagovailoa? Can the offense be a little more resilient? McDaniel’s attack is thwarted by seemingly simple adjustments by savvy defensive minds a little too often. Last year’s season-ending stretch of @BAL, vs. BUF, @KC was particularly grim. It’s cool to hack the NFL like it’s a videogame, but you have to be ready for when Steve Spagnuolo patches the code. McDaniel is so close to unleashing a Shanahan-ian death star. He’s already bounced back from a rough finish once. I expect him to do so again in 2024.
12. Kevin O’Connell, Vikings
Career Record: 20-14 (.588)
With The Vikings Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 19
How charmed was Kevin O’Connell’s first season as head coach? He went 13-4 and made the playoffs with a negative point differential. How cursed was year two? Four different quarterbacks started at least two games. And yet, it was through that adversity where O’Connell’s promise became clear. Although functionally eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16, the Vikings still had a faint shot at qualification in Week 18. That would be the same Week 18 where they were forced to turn to Nick Mullens for the second time … after starting Jarren Hall for the second time in Week 17. The stuff of nightmares for NFL head coaches. But through it all, O’Connell kept his eye on the ball, specifically making sure it ended up in his playmakers’ hands. No matter who was under center, O’Connell ensured they peppered Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson with targets. He didn’t get too cute. He didn’t try to force “balance” with an ineffective rushing attack. He did what was required to maximize his chances of scoring points. Again, you would think this was simple, but for many coaches it’s not. That, coupled with O’Connell correcting his first-year mistake of hiring DC Ed Donatell by replacing him with Brian Flores has created an optimistic air even as the Vikes transition away from Kirk Cousins. O’Connell is a coach who figures things out. Hopefully his future problems aren’t as complex as they were in 2023.
13. Sean Payton, Broncos
Career Record: 160-98 (.620)
With The Broncos Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: — —
Sean Payton is one of the best coaches of the 21st century. Is he one of the best of the 2020s? It was unclear in 2023, where Payton rolled out of his $2500 analyst chair and was rudely reminded this isn’t easy. After an offseason prep that consisted of signing a few former Saints and making it plain he loathed his supposed franchise quarterback Russell Wilson, Payton began the year 0-2 with concerning setbacks to second-division sides Las Vegas and Washington. That was just the warmup for the most embarrassing NFL loss in years, Denver’s 70-20 throttling at the hands of the Dolphins in Week 3. That seemed to re-awaken Payton’s competitive juices after his one-season FOX sinecure, though success was relative. The Broncos finished on an 8-6 “run” only by tying Wilson’s hand behind his back. Payton’s offense was not dynamic, and he seemed preoccupied by what his players couldn’t do instead of what they could. NFL second acts have a long tradition of going poorly. Payton’s 2023 wasn’t even that bad by the dismal standards of the Mike Ditka past. But Payton’s takeaway needs to be a willingness to change rather than a vengeance to double down.
14. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
Career Record: 167-102-2 (.620)
With The Cowboys Since: 2020
Last Year’s Ranking: 21
What are the merits of Mike McCarthy in 2024? The entire football world sits around waiting for his firing while all the man does is win 12 games. How did we get here? For one, the time really had come in Green Bay. Yet the same was true for Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Reid is a far better coach, but why do we so easily dismiss McCarthy’s Cowboys renaissance? I would be lying if I said I had the answer. I would also be lying if I said I disagreed with the negative sentiment. I would not have batted an eye had McCarthy been dismissed following his latest postseason faceplant. Never mind the fact that the Cowboys’ offense improved after McCarthy replaced OC Kellen Moore with himself, and Dallas finished with a top-five scoring attack for the third time in three seasons. McCarthy is a dour man, never more so than during his annual January flops. But I guess sometimes we have to take a step back and realize he keeps making the playoffs in the first place. Even if you’re an elite head coach, it’s a fact of NFL life that you are going to have as many bitter postseason defeats as Super Bowl triumphs. Just ask John Harbaugh or Mike Tomlin. Everyone, myself included, should probably try to keep more proper McCarthy perspective.
15. Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Career Record: 34-17 (.667)
With The Eagles Since: 2021
Last Year’s Ranking: 8
Nick Sirianni’s 2023 was a needed reminder: Be careful how reverently you worship at the altar of “coach.” It’s easy to seem like a genius when Jalen Hurts and the defense are flattening everyone in sight. It’s harder when the quarterback is playing through a bone bruise and the general manager forgot to restock the secondary. Sirianni was exposed as a man without a backup plan, helplessly flailing as 10-1 turned into 11-6 and a noncompetitive Wild Card performance. It wasn’t all Sirianni’s fault. The Eagles’ 2023 failure had many fathers. Sirianni has since fired them all, leaving himself without anyone else to scapegoat for 2024. That, coupled with the retirement of team captain Jason Kelce means the magnifying glass is now burning a hole through Sirianni’s visor. He must adapt like he did mid-season in 2021, when he turned the Eagles from a balanced attack to run-heavy colossus overnight. Sirianni deserves some benefit of the doubt. But he has none left in reserve after a collapse that nearly cost him his job.
16. Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Career Record: 60-53-1 (.531)
With The Jaguars Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 10
It’s never entirely clear if I’m underrating or overrating Doug Pederson. On the one hand, only seven active coaches have won a Super Bowl. On the other, just one was fired three years after doing so. Maybe the Eagles were being impatient, but it sure didn’t take them long to recover from Pederson’s ouster. The Jaguars got an immediate taste of the Doug good life when they stunned the Chargers in the 2023 Wild Card Round. It didn’t take long for the “Sudfeld Moment” to arrive, with the Jags coughing up a certain 2023-24 playoff appearance by losing five of their last six games. It’s quite possible Pederson is an unlucky poster child for variance in a closed-loop league of 32 where only one team can win the Super Bowl any given season. Variance, after all, is something Pederson embraces with his devotion to EPA-based decision making. It’s a trick few coaches embrace. Perhaps the question should be, is it Pederson’s only one? What else makes him special? We’ll try to find out in 2024.
17. DeMeco Ryans, Texans
Career Record: 10-7 (.558)
With The Texans Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: — —
The most buzzed-about “rookie” in last year’s coaching class, DeMeco Ryans had the best season in a strong group that included Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. Although it was tempting to give all the acclaim to instant superstar C.J. Stroud, Ryans oversaw a defense that surrendered 67 fewer points than the year prior, going from 27th in points allowed to 11th. And whereas it was OC Bobby Slowik in charge of Stroud’s OROY development, it was Ryans himself who helped coax a DROY campaign out of fellow top-three pick Will Anderson. Not that Ryans deserves all the credit for Anderson’s special talent, but he sure knew what to do with it. Beyond player development, Ryans was steady on the sidelines, maintaining an even keel as he led a young group of young players. The only complaint might be that it was too even. The Texans’ offense remained a little too conservative. We’re assuming Ryans will be more willing to cut it loose in 2024. That includes on defense, where typically thrifty GM Nick Caserio snagged Ryans a haul in free agency. Ryans and company look ready for something special in Houston.
18. Todd Bowles, Bucs
Career Record: 43-58 (.426)
With The Bucs Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 23
How hard has Todd Bowles’ NFL luck been? The man got a losing season out of Tom Brady. Of course, when you are as conservative as Bowles, “bad luck” tends to follow. That’s why it was so surprising to see Bowles allow wiz kid OC Dave Canales to let it rip with Baker Mayfield in 2023. The result was Bowles’ first-ever division title with a winning record and one of the most genuinely surprising NFL campaigns in ages. Now comes the hard part. Canales is gone and running it back with outlier quarterback campaigns has a way of failing instantly. It’s going to take another strong effort on Bowles’ side of the ball after the Bucs permitted the seventh fewest points in 2023. A laconic leader, Bowles won’t need to say much if he takes care of defensive business and lets new Sean McVay-disciple, OC Liam Coen, operate with a similar degree of autonomy to Canales.
19. Shane Steichen, Colts
Career Record: 9-8 (.529)
With The Colts Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: — —
Being a rookie head coach is facing a steady diet of curveballs. Shane Steichen got a knee buckler in Week 5 when fellow rookie Anthony Richardson went down for the season. Here’s that Gardner Minshew you ordered, coach. No one would have faulted Steichen if he couldn’t make a few delicious Arnold Palmers out of Minshew’s lemons. He somehow did, getting Minshew into the Pro Bowl while keeping Indianapolis in playoff contention until Week 18. The offense improved from 30th to 10th in scoring. It amounted to little more than an interesting side quest as the Colts prepare for round two with Richardson’s unique skill-set, but it re-confirmed Steichen is ready for anything on the offensive side of the ball after an Eagles tenure that featured a variety of different styles. Steichen has a lot riding on journeyman DC Gus Bradley, but he appears ready to settle in for at least 3-4 seasons of his reported six-year deal.
20. Brian Daboll, Giants
Career Record: 15-18-1 (.456)
With The Giants Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 15
The 2022 Giants had no business going 9-7-1, let alone winning a playoff game. Brian Daboll was just that good as he managed and manipulated Daniel Jones en route to a $160 million contract. But no good deed goes unpunished. Realistic Giants fans probably knew not to expect an encore in 2023. They could be forgiven, however, if they didn’t see 6-11 coming, particularly the 2-8 start that featured four 20-plus point losses. The talent simply was not there. It wasn’t in 2022, either, which begs the question: Where do the roster limitations end and Daboll begins? With this team rebuilding, we probably won’t come any closer to the answer in 2024. That puts Daboll in Robert Saleh Mode, begging for patience in the least patient market on earth. Giants fans will just have to trust Daboll on this one. It will be unsurprising if they don’t.
21. Robert Saleh, Jets
Career Record: 18-33 (.353)
With The Jets Since: 2021
Last Year’s Ranking: 18
No one said it would be easy. For real, no one said that. This is the New York Jets. Many said it would be hard. But a popped Achilles’ tendon on the opening possession of the season hard? That was a bit much. It was all a bit much for Robert Saleh in year three, who lost control of the situation in the literal first quarter of the first game and never got it back. As was the case in 2022, Saleh did an admirable job on his side of the ball, surrendering the 12th fewest points in football despite the offense continually putting the defense in wretched game script. But he was again overcome by events elsewhere, frequently ending games with a 1,000-yard stare before sighing his way through post-game press conferences with the resignation of 1,000 fathers watching their sons “hit the griddy” in a seventh grade basketball game. It’s possible no one could have handled another year of Zach Wilson eye bleeders under center. Does that mean Saleh deserves a free pass? No. He did deserve another year. Saleh handles his business on his side of the ball. That’s the baseline for any non-CEO head coach. But year four will be the time for more in Florham Park even if Aaron Rodgers again fails to make it through a full season.
22. Matt Eberflus, Bears
Career Record: 10-24 (.294)
With The Bears Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 24
Matt Eberflus needed a win. Or five. He was 5-21 for his career and staring down the barrel of another No. 1 overall pick — and a pink slip. He needed a miracle. Or the Panthers. He got both. Chicago used a Week 10 date with pathetic Carolina as the springboard to a 5-3 finish. As a kicker, they threw in .. the No. 1 overall pick. Now instead of someone else starting the Bears’ latest rebuild with Eberflus’ No. 1, he has someone else’s as he attempts to finally escape the draft lottery. It wasn’t merely good fortune that got him here. Thanks in part to the trade deadline acquisition of Montez Sweat, Eberflus finally got in gear on his defensive side of the ball. In addition to the five wins, each of the Bears’ final three losses were one-score affairs against playoff-bound sides. For the season, Chicago surrendered 84 fewer points than the year prior. It was a genuine second half turnaround, one that will now almost certainly be buoyed by generational prospect Caleb Williams. There’s some good luck involved, for sure, but Eberflus can credibly say he made some of it. Now he gets to see what happens next.
23. Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals
Career Record: 4-13 (.235)
With The Cardinals Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: — —
Jonathan Gannon had only one task on his rookie year to-do list: Overachieve even somewhat. Check. When expectations are nonexistent, they’re easy to exceed. Gannon’s squad did that even before it even started winning games, at least staying watchable with charming backup QB Josh Dobbs. Yes, they went 1-8 in the process, but people were expecting 0-9. The returns were even “better” once Kyler Murray came off injured reserve, “sparking” a 3-5 finish. Along the way Gannon remained polite with the media and endearing with his players. We didn’t learn much except that the former Eagles defensive coordinator can navigate losing with dignity. The bar now rises immediately, but Gannon has pocketed some badly-needed benefit of the doubt.
24. Dennis Allen, Saints
Career Record: 24-46 (.343)
With The Saints Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 26
We lost a lot of bad coaches last winter. Arthur Smith, Brandon Staley, Josh McDaniels and Ron Rivera send their regards. That means we are left with the merely mediocre to round out our list. No one is more committed to the bit than Dennis Allen. A defensive coordinator trapped in a head coach’s body, Allen has treated Sean Payton’s leftover offense like a museum heirloom that disintegrates if you touch it. This is an attack that hasn’t innovated in three years, right down to banging Alvin Kamara between the tackles for no reason and rushing Taysom Hill onto the field any time there’s a critical down. Well, it’s not entirely true there’s been no innovation. Allen has decided to find out just how boring Drew Brees-style quarterbacking can become. Andy Dalton pushed the envelope in 2022. Derek Carr reached new heights in 2023. Allen, who admittedly takes care of business on defense, has finally moved on from Payton Ball on offense but replaced it with … Kubiak Ball. Not Gary, but Klint. It’s a fine system in a vacuum. It’s also become mummified under Klint, with no new wrinkles inserted since the Peyton Manning days in Denver. Maybe 2023 49ers passing-game coordinator Klint learned something under coach Kyle Shanahan. That’s what the Saints’ season and Allen’s future employment hinges on: This old Kubiak dog picking up some new Shanahan tricks. I suppose there are worse plans, but I’m not seeing many for 2024.
New Hires (In Alphabetical Order)
Brian Callahan, Titans
Career Record: — —
Brian Callahan is the son of a former NFL head coach who hasn’t called plays since he was the offensive coordinator and QBs coach at “Junípero Serra HS” in 2008-09. His Wikipedia lists each of his three most recent NFL stops with one sentence of explanation, including: “On February 7, 2019, Callahan was hired by the Cincinnati Bengals as their offensive coordinator.” The head-coaching résumé is thin, in other words. But this being the modern NFL, it’s not even Brian’s dad, Bill Callahan, who got him the gig: It’s his unofficial godfather, Sean McVay. Callahan has never worked for McVay, but his Cincinnati boss Zac Taylor did. That’s how it works these days. Can you be tangentially connected to either McVay or Kyle Shanahan? You’re hired. This is maybe the flimsiest one yet — and many will argue a reach by myself — but the McVay/Shanahan and now hopefully Taylor coaching tree continues to find startling instant success. Throw in the fact that Brian is bringing along his legendary OL coach father, and this could work even though it seems like it shouldn’t.
Dave Canales, Panthers
Career Record: — —
Head coaches, by definition, have a broad purview. Dave Canales was hired with one goal in mind: Save Bryce Young. The closest bystander to the revivals of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, Canales certainly has the outward appearance of a miracle worker. It’s just a lot to place on one man’s plate, especially since quarterback is far from the only problem with a roster that is fresh off clinching the No. 1 overall pick. The expectations are unfair. They are not entirely unfounded. Canales is the exact kind of flier teams like the Panthers should be taking. Do not recycle Dan Quinn. Don’t pin all your hopes and dreams on someone who just went 11-3 at Baylor. Examine real world, near-word results and hope they are transferable to yourself. If Canales joins Matt Rhule and Frank Reich in failure, it will at least have been noble.
Jim Harbaugh, Chargers
Career Record: 44-19-1 (.695)
Jim Harbaugh breaks all the rules. Sometimes a little too literally. The man was suspended not once, but twice during the 2023 season. As a hire, he is both a retread — fine, though not preferable — and a college coach. The latter has produced most of the greatest coaching flops of the 21st century. But when they’ve hit, they’ve hit big, which brings us back to Jim. John’s brother is no ordinary retread, but one of the best football coaches who has ever lived. He is not a typical university man. He is a former NFL coach with the fifth highest winning percentage in league history. He is a winner, from his time at San Diego and Stanford to San Francisco and Michigan. He, always and utterly, does things his own way. That includes an obsession with fundamental football that insists on balanced offense. That is out of step with the times, just as it was during Harbaugh’s 49ers tenure. That produced three NFC Championship Game appearances, with quarterbacks Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Harbaugh is a football genius who wears his quirks proudly. Maybe his style has finally grown too iconoclastic for the modern NFL. All eight teams with head-coaching vacancies should have been dying to find out.
Mike Macdonald, Seahawks
Career Record: — —
Occasionally, teams stumble upon a coaching tree beyond the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay root system. Mike Macdonald is a twofer, studying under the Brothers Harbaugh, first as a position coach for John’s Ravens before coordinating Jim’s Wolverines. He was a wunderkind in Ann Arbor before his 2023 Baltimore homecoming, where he oversaw the league’s best defense and held Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs to 17 points in the AFC Championship Game. So Macdonald has both the lineage and the résumé. That’s with even great youth, as Macdonald is now the league’s youngest head man. Macdonald is replacing a legend in Pete Carroll while the Seahawks are on a short-term quarterback plan in an annually-loaded division. These are not calm waters for a 36-year-old first-timer. But Macdonald checks every box, and profiles as a considered contrarian play to the increasing McVay/Shanahan conventional wisdom.
Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Career Record: — —
Bill Belichick refused to provide the Patriots with an updated version of his software. They’re hoping his top lieutenant is the next best thing. Long rumored as Belichick’s heir apparent — a “rumor” that was apparently a contractual fact — Jerod Mayo is definitely the best option if you want Belichick without the Belichick. A Patriot since BB made him the No. 10 overall pick of the 2008 draft, Mayo has been on the coaching staff since 2019. He is steeped in the “Patriots Way” with the advantage of having not only played the game, but the modern game. Lauded for his leadership ability, Mayo is a “player’s coach” in a way Belichick never could be. He has literally said he coaches “out of love.” In short, the Patriots are trying to have it both ways. It was time to move on, but not to something new. Just the next phase. Belichick without the Bill will be one of 2024’s most fascinating experiments.
Raheem Morris, Falcons
Career Record: 21-38 (.356)
Raheem Morris’ second successful climb of the coaching ladder took a lot longer than the first. One of the youngest head coaches in NFL history when the Bucs hired him at age 32 in 2009, Morris managed one 10-win season between sub-par quarterback play and a number of lengthy losing streaks. He then embarked on a marathon journey through Shanahan/McVay finishing school, first linking up with Mike Shanahan in Washington before becoming McVay’s defensive boss in L.A. nearly 10 years later. Why it took Morris so long to again become not just a head coach but a coordinator — Morris went nine years between his Bucs gig and Falcons DC job in 2020 — is unclear, but what’s not is his players’ love for him. Jalen Ramsey has called him the best coach in the league, and he sometimes felt that way when paired with Aaron Donald. Morris arrives back in Atlanta with a lifetime of lessons. One of the first? Go somewhere with a quarterback. Kirk Cousins gives Morris a baseline he never had in Tampa, and when you have a floor, ceiling is possible.
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Career Record: 5-4 (.556)
After years of failed big game hunting, the Raiders are finally just rollin’ with the flow on the sideline. Antonio Pierce is a vibes-based hire, nothing more, nothing less. Running it back with successful interim coaches has been an almost guaranteed recipe for failure, but anyone who watched this team last season knows owner Mark Davis had no choice. For one thing, he might literally have no choice. Davis is paying small fortunes to coaches no longer in his employ. He probably couldn’t have even afforded the next Jon Gruden or Josh McDaniels. But why would he want to after what Pierce did in 2023? He took a team that had straight up lost its love for football and made it an overnight winner, including on Christmas Day over eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City. He did so with a backup quarterback, and a thin overall roster. It’s for those reasons that Pierce is probably set up to fail. Good vibes go a long way when the last guy’s energy was the most toxic in the league. But once the initial high has worn off, they can only take you so far. Like even Dan Campbell before him, Pierce needs help. 2023 was a strong indication he deserves it.
Dan Quinn, Commanders
Career Record: 43-42 (.506)
The Commanders did not hire the polar opposite of Ron Rivera. This was more of a Rivera 2.0 process. Dan Quinn is a nice guy and laudatory defensive coordinator. He was a dud of a head coach, settling into seven-win mediocrity once Kyle Shanahan and Steve Sarkisian moved on from the Falcons’ 2016-17 peak. In fact, the main difference between Rivera and Quinn is that Rivera actually had a little more first-stop success. Rivera’s second chance in Washington did not go well. Quinn’s will be similarly doomed to fail if the Commanders don’t hit a quarterback home run at No. 2 overall. You could argue that’s the fate of all head coaches, but we know that’s not the case. Some rise above their QB situations. Others cycle through Alex Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Sam Howell etc. until the inevitable pink slip arrives. Quinn displayed all the signs of the latter in Atlanta. The Commanders are about to find out.
