Jordan Addison was never going to escape the horrors of the Regression Reaper.
Highlighted in this space a couple weeks ago, Addison took regression to an extreme in Week 4 against the Panthers: The rookie had zero catches on zero targets. His goose egg crushed fantasy rosters that had come to rely on his steady stream of big plays. I have two such rosters that could not overcome the Reaper, which, unlike the seasons, I fear very much.
Addison’s continued high-level production was always going to take a nosedive unless his role in the Minnesota offense changed. It hasn’t. He’s still running behind KJ Osborn. The bottom fell out of the Vikings’ pass volume against Carolina and Addison had (almost) no chance to keeping up the hefty stat lines.
This isn’t just to say I told you so on Addison. Although I did, in fact, tell you so. The rookie is a good early season case study in understanding what kind of fantasy profiles can consistently generate points, and which can’t. Addison might one day have the former. Right now he does not. Nevertheless, we persist.
Spotting guys who overperformed their opportunity and those who were on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
We’ll start with players who have run cold through four weeks, and who might be due for something of a bounceback in Week 5.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Stafford’s primary function in fantasy football this season has been facilitator for all-time great Puka Nacua and target gobbler Kyren Williams. And ole’ Matty is doing just fine in this role: He’s feeding our guys, fueling absurd fantasy outputs for both Nacua and Williams.
Don’t lose sight of Stafford’s striking touchdown underperformance through four weeks though. His humble 1.8 percent touchdown rate is well below his miserable 3.4 percent TD rate from last season and miles below the 6.8 percent rate he posted in Sean McVay’s offense in 2021. Only Joe Burrow and Derek Carr have lower TD rates. The Rams are unapologetically pass heavy — they sport the NFL’s third highest pass rate over expected — yet 67 percent of their scores have come via the rush. That’s the highest rate in the NFL, and one screaming for regression.
Stafford through Week 4 is second in passing yardage and second in completions. With Cooper Kupp’s return to the LA lineup in the next week or two, expect Stafford to see a nice little touchdown bump. With Kupp in the lineup, the Rams have been the league’s pass heaviest team inside the ten yard line over the past two seasons. That has not been the case so far this season; Stafford has just seven pass attempts in the green zone. A shift to more throwing near the goal line is coming for LA.
I could see Stafford — second among QBs with 18 completions of more than 20 yards — turning into an every-week starter in 12-team formats for the remainder of the season. As they say on the site formerly known as Twitter, like for later.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Prescott will remain in this part of the Regression Files until morale improves. Or at least until the Cowboys start scoring offensive touchdowns. It would be swell if Dallas had one (1) normal game with normal game script. A boy can wish.
Prescott now leads the league with 32 attempts in the red zone and 18 attempts in the green zone (inside the ten). He has a meager three touchdowns to show for it as the Cowboys continue being on the wrong side of touchdown regression. The Boys lead the NFL with 4.9 red zone possessions per game — they’re moving the ball at will, plagued with some bad luck when they smell the end zone paint.
Prescott’s 2.9 percent touchdown rate pales in comparison to his 6 percent rate over the past two seasons. One day those red zone throws are going to result in six points. That could start in Week 5 against a 49ers defense that ranks as the league’s most extreme pass funnel.
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Running Back
Rachaad White (TB)
It’s possible — likely even — that White is just not very good. His peripheral numbers were hideous in 2022 and they haven’t budged in 2023. White is 28th in PFF’s elusive rating and doesn’t have a single rush of more than 15 yards on 63 carries through Week 4.His rushing success rate is in line with Justice Hill and Joshua Kelley. It’s been bad.
Thankfully, for those who drafted White, none of this matters. He continues working as the Bucs’ lead back because, well, Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are two of the only NFL backs worse than White. If he keeps getting a solid workload — White has at least 15 rushes in each of Tampa’s four games — he should eventually deliver less-dismal production for fantasy managers. And his pass-catching role is intact: Only three backs have run more pass routes than White, who has the ninth most catches (13) among running backs.
White ranks eighth in the league with seven rushing attempts inside the ten yards line this season and sixth in red zone carries. That’s amounted to a single touchdown. A solidified role in a Bucs offense that will see more neutral and positive game script than anyone expected entering the season should make White a weekly RB2, even if he remains bad.
Brian Robinson (WAS)
Don’t get antsy and look for a B-Rob replacement after two down games. Wickedly sideways game script doomed Robinson in Week 3 against Buffalo and a nightmare matchup in a back-and-forth affair did him no favors in Week 4 against the Eagles. He still got you a touchdown — and almost a second score — against Philadelphia.
Robinson is the only Commanders back with an inside-the-five rush this season. He has four, in fact. And Robinson has 12 red zone rushing attempts to five for Antonio Gibson.
It’s a good setup for Robinson: Washington’s offensive line is graded by PFF as the NFL’s seventh best run-blocking unit and the Commanders have the league’s fourth lowest stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage) this season. With 79.4 percent of Washington’s rush attempts, Robinson will be just fine. Do what Toto once said and hold the line. I’ve once again alienated the zoomers.
Wide Receiver
Josh Palmer (LAC)
Am I squirming while including the historically-inefficient Palmer in the Regression Files. I am. I’m squirming so hard. I’m burning calories, which is nice.
Palmer, in his first game as LA’s No. 2 wideout following Mike Williams’ season-ending ACL injury, caught three of eight targets for 77 scoreless yards against the Raiders. Most of his production came on a fourth quarter 51-yard grab to ice the game. It was hardly what folks were looking for after going hog wild to acquire Palmer off the wire (in your league, Palmer was drafted before Calvin Ridley, I know).
Here’s my attempt to make you feel a little less bad about Palmer: He led the Chargers with a 49.5 percent air yards share, the eighth most among all NFL wideouts in Week 4, and he was targeted on a studly 30 percent of his pass routes. There’s also this surprising little nugget: Palmer led the Chargers with a 35.6 percent first-read target share. That ranked top-12 on the week league wide. Palmer’s role and LA’s pass heaviness (fifth in pass rate over expected) should buoy his fantasy production, even if Palmer doesn’t magically become hyper efficient.
Zay Flowers (BAL)
Thanks to the evil twins of massively positive game script and wideout injuries, the Ravens returned to their traditional run-first ways in Week 4 against Cleveland. Lamar Jackson threw just 19 passes against the Browns, 31st among quarterbacks last week.
Flowers was the target on four of those throws; he caught three for 54 yards and had one rushing attempt (he now has five on the year). Flowers drafters, I think, can expect much more from the rookie in the next few weeks, barring more out-of-control positive script. Flowers has the tenth highest rate of first-read targets among all NFL receivers. His 91 percent route rate means he’s out there on nearly every drop back, and an average intended air yards per target of 5.1 tells us Flowers could be a PPR scam with more pass volume for Baltimore.
Things should get better for the speedy rookie.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (ARI)
Ertz, as you may have seen on Sunday, dropped an easy touchdown in garbage time against the 49ers. If you had the Josh Dobbs-Ertz-Brown-CMC stack on DraftKings, like me, you may have collapsed. Your wife may have called 911. Your dog may have tried his best to revive you. He’s a good boy.
Anyway, here’s the point: Ertz is running a route on 77 percent of the Cardinals’ drop backs and leads all tight ends in first-read target rate (25.5 percent). Nearly 60 percent of his routes originate from the slot. A mere three tight ends have more receptions than Ertz, who leads tight ends in targets, just as best ball bros predicted in April. More negative game scripts for Arizona and a solid route rate should make Ertz a boring-but-effective fantasy option. At the tight end position, you’ll take it and you’ll like it and that’s that.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
Kincaid regressing in the right direction requires a little imagination. After largely splitting tight end routes with Dawson Knox in a Buffalo offense using two-TE sets at the league’s highest rate, Kincaid created some separation in Week 4 against Miami. The rookie logged an eyebrow-arching 76 percent of the team’s routes on his way to a so-what stat line: Four catches for 27 yards.
Against the Dolphins, Kincaid trailed only Stefon Diggs in first-read target rate. His slot rate jumped from around 50 percent to 70 percent. It all points to a pass catcher the Bills want to get more involved in the passing attack. Now he takes on a Jacksonville defense giving up the fourth most receptions to tight ends. Exercise maximum patience with Kincaid.
Evan Engram (JAC)
I’ll make this quick since you’re starting Engram anyway. After appearing in this space last week, Engram had his second straight game with seven receptions on eight targets, this time for 59 yards.
Engram heads into Week 5 leading all tight ends in receptions but without a touchdown. He’s yet to see a red zone target, which is weird and a little off putting. But he had eight such targets in 2022, so maybe they’re on their way. Maybe.
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle through four games is well below his career receiving metrics, including air yards conversion rate, yards per route run, and average depth of target. Kittle is averaging 0.31 fantasy points per route in 2023. In 2022, that number was 0.52. It’s hardly a mystery as to why Kittle is underperforming: Frustratingly -- infuriatingly -- he has yet to see a green zone target. He had eight such looks in 2022, leading to four TDs.
He still has a good route rate (77 percent), and even if he continues pancaking opponents on run blocking plays, Kittle should eventually regress to his usual, excellent metrics.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Even after that hideous clunker of a game against the Panthers, Cousins leads all quarterbacks with a 7 percent touchdown rate. That happens to be well beyond his 4.5 percent rate from 2022 and his career 5.1 percent TD rate.
But volume, you cry out. Volume will lead Cousins drafters to the Promised Land. It’s not the worst argument, seeing that the Vikings trail only Kansas City in pass rate over expected and Cousins has the fourth most drop backs this season. There’s also that pesky little thing about the Vikings being utterly unable to run the ball. Every one of their touchdowns this season have come through the air. So maybe pure, uncut volume can give us a bunch of Cousins touchdowns even if his TD rate slips in the next few weeks.
I would be remiss — and I’m never remiss — to mention Cousins’ ordinary play through Week 4. He’s 14th in QB success rate and eighth in adjusted yards per attempt, which isn’t terrible, but is far from elite.
A little improved green zone rushing efficiency from some combination of Alexander Mattison or Cam Akers could strip Cousins of his beloved green zone attempts. He should remain a reliable floor play in 12-team leagues. The glut of early-season touchdowns makes me nervous though.
Russell Wilson (DEN)
I’ve put myself in the awkward spot of defending Wilson while Broncos fans blame Denver’s miserable early season on him. They say Wilson is struggling outside of scripted plays or something. They say he needs to be good enough to counteract the worst defense of the modern era. None of it makes sense, but Broncos fans will be collectively traumatized by the 2022 season until at least 2040, per the analytics. In that way it makes sense.
Wilson makes his first Regression Files appearance because his 6.9 percent touchdown rate is a close second behind the aforementioned Kirk Cousins. Wilson’s career TD rate (5.8 percent) could convince one to believe Russ can keep it going. One might not be wrong.
Like Cousins, Russ’ peripherals are on the iffy side through Week 4. He’s 18th in QB success rate (in the Sam Howell zone) and he leads the NFL with five completions of more than 40 yards. It’s a product of a guy who likes to rip the long ball, but it’s also (probably) not sustainable without more pass volume (Wilson is 14th in drop backs).
Sean Payton clearly doesn’t want to air it out if the team can help it. Denver has the tenth lowest pass rate over expected. They’re under their expected pass rate on first downs. These are not the hallmarks of a team that wants to attack opponents via the pass. Russ could become something of a fantasy disappointment if or when the Denver defense gets healthy and can stop teams from scoring touchdowns at will.
Running Back
De’Von Achane (MIA)
The math says Achane must remain in this negative part of the Regression Files because c’mon, this stuff can’t last. Please don’t screenshot this. I’m begging you.
Achane in Week 4 eclipsed 100 yards on just eight carries and scored two touchdowns while catching three of five targets. He now has 362 total yards and six touchdowns in two games of action. Nearly two-thirds of his rushing production has come on runs of at least 15 yards. Achane has broken the Regression Meter and is now poking me with the machine’s shards.
The rookie far outpaced Raheem Mostert for pass-catching duties against Buffalo, running a route on 62 percent of the Dolphins’ drop backs to 31 percent for Mostert. That could be vitally important if Achane remains behind Mostert in Miami’s rushing pecking order. Achane is undoubtedly a fantasy starter with as much weekly upside as any running back not named Christian McCaffrey, but he’s not going to keep averaging 11.5 yards per carry. I can say that with a fair degree of confidence. I think we’ll learn more about Achane’s role in the offense if the Dolphins ever have a game in which they are not winning or losing by a bunch.
There exists another scenario — one where Mike McDaniel makes Achane the team’s nominal lead back and locks him into 15 touches every week. In that scenario, Achane will likely be a top-three fantasy RB. And by congressional decree, he will no longer appear in the Regression Files.
Najee Harris (PIT)
Me and my fellow nerds are having existential crises over Harris’ superb rushing metrics through four weeks. Our jokes about Najee have run dry. The man has good peripherals. The world has been turned on its head.
Unless Harris was just banged up over the past two years and this is his real, healthy form, some of his metrics have to regress. Fifty-six percent of his 2023 rushing production has come on runs of at least 15 yards. Last year, that number was 13.2 percent. He’s broken a tackle on 20 percent of his carries, double his 2022 broken tackle rate. Harris is tenth in PFF’s elusiveness rate; he was 29th in 2022. Just this past week, Najee posted the league’s worst rushing success rate.
It (probably) doesn’t add up. Najee might be done tormenting the nerds soon enough, potentially creating a path to starter’s snaps for Jaylen Warren. Or maybe I’m just wishcasting.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
Aiyuk is basically scoring a fantasy point every time he runs a pass route. It’s something Bob Oppenheimer and the country’s best minds couldn’t make sense of, as we saw in that really long and loud movie.
Aiyuk is fantasy’s 15th highest scoring receiver with the 87th most wideout pass routes and the 53rd most targets. He’s converted 80 percent of his air yards, just slightly above his 54 percent conversion rate over the past two seasons. It’s the sort of efficiency that violates the basic laws of nature.
Aiyuk is a monster and the Niners offense is an efficiency machine sent from the future by analytics geeks battling marauding gangs of run establishers. Even so, regression is coming for Aiyuk. Look no further than his 0.48 fantasy points per route from the 2022 season — good, but not historic.
Nico Collins (HOU)
Collins has been a nice little cheat code for folks who drafted him in the late rounds with fleeting hope that he would have some fantasy usefulness.
Without snuffing out any excitement about Collins being top-five in receiving yards after Week 4, I am morally and ethically obligated to inform you that no receiver is further above his expected fantasy points this season. Collins is running pure over four weeks: No one with more than a dozen targets has a higher yards per reception (19.5) than Collins, who has a higher yards per route run than everyone but Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk. Collins is good; I’m not entirely sure he’s a bonafide elite NFL receiver though.
Collins isn’t the only regression candidate in the red hot Houston offense. Tank Dell, with the NFL’s seventh highest air yards per target, has scored a touchdown every seventh target over four games. That, to put it kindly, cannot last. Houston’s pass volume should keep Dell and Collins afloat as every-week fantasy starters. The matchup-winning outputs are going to wane though.
Tight End
Cole Kmet (CHI)
I’m once again being accused of stealing the joy of Kmet drafters. I am doing no such thing. I am simply pointing out that Kmet Got Away With It bigly in Week 4 against the Broncos, with a wild 36 percent target per route run rate, leading to seven receptions, 85 yards, and two scores.
The nature of Chicago’s offense — they’re 25th in pass rate over expected — and Justin Fields’ pass volume-killing rushing attempts means Kmet will have to maintain absurd efficiency if he’s going to be a top tight end option. I suppose this could happen if the Bears target distribution is narrowed to only Kmet and D.J. Moore. You’re probably using Kmet as an every-week play. Week 4 likely represented the high water mark of his season by a considerable margin.
Andrew Ogletree (IND)
I only wanted to mention Ogletree because in leading the Colts with three catches, 48 yards, and a touchdown in Week 4 against the Rams, the rookie ran a grand total of eight routes. Quite a productive little day.
Kylen Granson remains the only fantasy viable Colts tight end, and just barely at that.
