Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Bryce Young (CAR)
Last week’s Regression Files cover guy is back after another dandy little outing in Week 13 against Tampa. Young threw for 298 yards and one touchdown, which should have been two touchdowns if Adam Thielen’s back-of-the-end-zone catch had been correctly ruled a reception. So it goes.
Young remains a touchdown regression candidate after passing for 561 yards (and no interceptions) two games into his career resurgence (I truly believe something has clicked for Young). His 2.4 percent TD rate is going to eventually rise, maybe this week in a not-so-delightful matchup against the Eagles.
Young has become a far more aggressive passer over Carolina’s past two games, averaging 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt, well north of his career mark (5.6). His 9.7 air yards per attempt over those two games ranks seventh out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. Young, I think, is a top waiver option this week in one-QB formats who could finally get a visit from the Regression Reaper.
Running Back
Aaron Jones (MIN)
That Jones was benched for the better part of two quarters last week against the Cardinals is potentially a long term issue for the struggling veteran. Jones fumbled twice — losing one — in the first quarter against Arizona and proceeded to share the Minnesota backfield with Cam Akers, who was far more efficient.
If Jones regains his lead back job this week against the Falcons, he could be in for some of the good kind of regression. Jones through Week 13 has 21 rushes inside the ten yard line — seventh among running backs — and just two touchdowns to show for it.
Jones has seen 72 percent of the Vikings’ inside-the-ten rushes on the season along with 79 percent of the team’s inside-the-five carries. He’s been miserable with those high-value touches after being quite good as a red zone rusher during his Packers career.
The entire Vikings offense could be due for positive red zone possession. Only nine teams average more red zone possessions per game than Minnesota and the Vikings are 20th in red zone touchdown conversion rate (53 percent). Jones could benefit from a little touchdown luck for the Vikings.
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Wide Receiver
Davante Adams (NYJ)
Adams continues to rack up obscene air yard totals in the Jets’ horrid offense. Just last week against the Seahawks, Adams had 150 air yards, the seventh most among wideouts in Week 13. Adams accounted for 48 percent of the Jets’ air yards against Seattle.
He also has a 58-51 target edge on Garrett Wilson since joining buddy Aaron Rodgers on a sinking ship, like buddies do. I think Pat Daugherty was right when said last week on the Rotoworld Football Show that Rodgers is going to go out in a blaze of I-did-it-my-way glory. That means endless targets and air yards for Adams.
Rome Odunze (CHI)
Odunze is becoming a deeply unfortunate regular in this space. He’ll keep being featured as a positive regression candidate until morale improves.
Odunze is now second in the NFL in air yards since Week 9. What’s more, he’s 12th in targets over that stretch. The Bears have gone mega-giga pass heavy over the past couple weeks and all three Chicago wideouts are reaping — or almost reaping — the benefits.
Only Patrick Mahomes has more drop backs than Caleb Williams over the past five weeks as the Bears give up on the balanced offensive approach that defined the first half of their season. This injection of drop back volume is going to continue to fuel opportunity for Odunze, along with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore (and, who knows, maybe even Cole Kmet). Filed under unbelievable but somehow true: Odunze, Moore, and Allen are all among the league’s top six receivers in targets since Week 9.
Things have been bleak for Odunze, I get it. But don’t write him off in leagues with multiple flex spots. A Week 14 matchup against a collapsed Niners defense might be just what Odunze needs to achieve a little regression.
Cardinals pass catchers
This is where I get lazy and group a bunch of guys from the same team into one regression-rich entry because something fundamental has changed in the team’s offense.
That’s what we have with the Cardinals, who have totally abandoned the run since returning from their bye in Week 12. Arizona was 9 percent over its expected pass rate in Week 12 and 12 percent over in Week 13 in a loss to the Vikings. Only six teams have been pass heavier over the past two weeks — a marked departure from the Cardinals offense that had the NFL’s third lowest pass rate over expected from Week 1-10.
This has supercharged targets for Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Trey McBride. Both guys had 12 targets last week against Minnesota, with McBride’s inexplicable touchdown dry streak surviving yet another week (he now has zero TD grabs on 73 receptions this season). Harrison only caught five of his dozen looks for 60 yards and a score. He was top-five in unrealized air yards. The process, the process, the process, things of that nature.
If the Cards continue to drop back at a high clip, McBride and Harrison — and to a much lesser extent, Michael Wilson — should be tremendous fantasy options down the stretch. You already knew this about McBride, third in tight end catches and second in receiving yards, but MHJ has driven you insane with his spotty production and fantasy unfriendly profile. That Harrison doesn’t have a single screen target in 2024 should be the subject of a congressional investigation. Not to be dramatic.
With a 15 percent target share over the team’s past couple games, Wilson could have deep league appeal in the season’s final four weeks. A 15 percent target share is a little tastier when the quarterback is dropping back 55 times — as Murray did against Minnesota — than when the team is well below its expected drop back rate and logging something south of 35 drop backs.
A bump in drop backs should also make Murray a set-it-and-forget-it starter in 12-team leagues. His 3.5 percent TD rate is among the league’s lowest, though that’s been the norm for the underperforming Murray. Still, one would think Murray would accidentally have a multi-touchdown game one of these days.
Conversely, if Arizona’s establishment of the pass holds up in the coming weeks, James Conners’ workload is going to lose much of its fantasy luster. Conner, who has been phased out in negative game scripts, is largely splitting route-running duties. His early-down banger role is a fragile one subject to the whims of game flow and, in this case, a heavy lean toward the pass. Though Conner remains startable in all formats, his weekly upside may take a serious hit.
Negative Regression Candidates
Wide Receiver
Parker Washington (JAC)
Washington’s Week 13 usage against the Texans was, well, excellent. He ran a route on 41 of the Jaguars’ 45 drop backs and led the team with six grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. The unheralded Washington was targeted on a ludicrous 29 percent of his pass routes against Houston.
This, as you may have surmised by Washington’s placement in this column, seems to be a blip, a weird thing that sometimes happens, especially with bad teams playing out the stretch. Headed into Week 13, Washington had been targeted on a lowly 13 percent of his routes. That hardly changed even after Christian Kirk’s season-ending injury. And then Week 13 happened and fantasy managers flocked to the waiver wire to nab Jacksonville’s apparent new No. 1 wideout.
Brian Thomas, who had four catches for 76 yards and a score on 10 targets in Week 13, remains the team’s top receiver. Thomas ran as cold as anyone last week, seeing a league-leading 210 air yards in what could have been a 40-plus point fantasy outing with better quarterbacking (and better luck).
Washington is interesting in deeper formats only because there are, for some reason, six teams on bye in Week 14. Don’t expect another target-commanding performance, however.
Marvin Mims (DEN)
Mims scored a long touchdown Monday night against Cleveland thanks to Bo Nix ripping one in there through triple coverage. Nix got away with it bigly and Mims scored his second touchdown of 2024.
The Mims truthers partied all night. That’s fair. They rarely have anything for which to be excited. When they woke up Tuesday morning, they chugged electrolytes and realized with great horror that Mims ran a route on a meager 16 of Nix’s 41 drop backs against the Browns.
Mims on the season doesn’t have a hateful target per route run rate (22 percent). But until his playing time and route participation increases — Troy Franklin continues running ahead of Mims — he won’t be anything close to a reliable fantasy play in 12-team leagues. Now drink another Gatorade.
Michael Pittman (IND)
This is only to say that Pittman’s heady target shares in recent weeks don’t mean anything for as long as the Anthony Richardson-led Colts are so stubbornly run heavy.
Indy has been 4 percent, 15 percent, and 16 percent below its expected pass rate over their past three games, respectively. There simply isn’t enough volume to go around. There might be just enough to support Josh Downs when he returns from his shoulder injury. No other Colts pass catcher will be playable in 12-team formats though.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
Freiermuth got in on the act in Week 13 against the Bengals with a season high in receptions (6), receiving yards (78), and his fourth touchdown of the season. But you are not legally allowed to be bullish on the tight end in Week 14 and beyond. I take no pleasure in saying so.
Freiermuth ran a route on 27 of Russell Wilson’s 43 drop backs last week against the Bengals and saw a target on 25 percent of his pass routes, well above his season long rate of 14 percent. This kind of usage came out of nowhere, and a relatively weak route participation rate should make fantasy folks at least somewhat queasy.
The Steelers went way off Arthur Smith’s regular script against the Bengals, logging a 14 percent pass rate over expected. Their previous 2024 high had been 1 percent over expected. Only the Chiefs and Bengals were more pass heavy than the Steelers in Week 13. I’m guessing that doesn’t hold up next week or the following week … or ever.
