Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Before we get into Week 13’s regression bros, a reminder that you can find my Taysom Hill analysis here. Hill and the Saints were on bye in Week 12 and return to action this week against the Rams.
Positive Regression Candidate
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (SF)
Though there’s no way to know if Purdy will play in Week 13 or at any point for the rest of the 2024 season thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s wicked little injury report games, it’s worth noting Purdy is due for touchdown regression in a Niners offense that has run cold all season.
Purdy, despite missing last week with some kind of shoulder injury, is fifth among all QBs with 28 inside-the-ten pass attempts. He has a lowly seven touchdowns on those high-leverage throws. For context, Sam Darnold has 14 touchdowns on 27 inside-the-ten attempts. So it goes.
Purdy’s touchdown rate over his past four games sits at around 4 percent. It’s awfully low for a guy who had a league-leading 7 percent TD rate in Shanahan’s EPA Machine just last season. Though I have no idea if Purdy will be at 100 percent health this week or next or in 2027, remember he should be in for the good kind of regression when he returns.
San Francisco’s offense has scored a touchdown on half of their red zone possessions in 2024 -- one of the lowest rates in the NFL. The 49ers in 2023 led the league with a 68 percent red zone TD rate.
Wide Receiver
Alec Pierce (IND)
Here’s a weird little stat: Only five receivers have more air yards (prayer yards) than Pierce over the past six weeks. Pierce leads Josh Downs and Michael Pittman by miles in air/prayer yards. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
You know what you’re getting with Pierce, a speedy downfield guy averaging 22 air yards per target: Most weeks he won’t convert on his high value opportunities and you’ll get burned. But sometimes, with the biggest-armed QB in the game, Pierce will come down with a long catch or two and make you feel like a daggone genius.
That Pierce is consistently getting a boatload of air yards means he’s part of the Colts game plan week in and week out. And since the Colts stink, they’ll likely be forced to lean on the pass down the stretch. That could be a positive little development for Pierce, whose fantasy profile could use a shot of route and target volume. In Week 12 against the Lions, he was targeted on 16 percent of his pass routes -- not bad for a deep threat. On the season, that rate is 14 percent.
Josh Downs likely being sidelined in Week 13 against the Patriots could (should) open up some opportunity for Pierce. It could be just the sort of thing that portends a (good) visit from the Regression Reaper.
DJ Moore (CHI)
Since the Bears mercifully parted ways with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Moore’s fantasy profile looks a lot more hopeful. New OC Thomas Brown is treating Moore like a PPR scam, which we appreciate very much.
Moore over Chicago’s past two games is tied for the team lead in targets (14) with an average depth of target south of two. Moore’s aDOT had been nearly 10 before that. He’s being peppered by Caleb Williams at or just beyond the line of scrimmage. Moore has essentially become an extension of the Bears run game since Waldron was axed.
In Week 12 against the Vikings, we saw the new-look Bears offense go ultra pass heavy. They dropped back on 75 percent of their snaps, 11 percent over expected. It’s a positive sign for Moore, Keenan Allen, and maybe even Rome Odunze — a positive regression candidate himself — that the season’s final month can be more fantasy friendly than the first few months.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Negative Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Mahomes was featured in the positive part of this column three weeks ago because he was long due for a visit from the Regression Reaper after running ice cold on touchdowns. Part of that was related to the Kansas City offense being more balanced and even run heavy than it had ever been in the Mahomes era.
Well, that’s changed. Since Week 8, only the massively pass-heavy Bengals have a higher pass rate over expected than the Chiefs. They even turned hard toward the pass against a run funnel Carolina defense in Week 12, posting a 70 percent drop back rate — 12 percent over expected. The Chiefs have let it rip near the goal line too: Mahomes is now second in attempts inside the ten yard line (37), with 11 of his 18 touchdown tosses coming in the green zone.
It appears Andy Reid is back on his … stuff.
Shifting toward the pass has been necessary for Mahomes’ top-12 prospects since the KC offense no longer produces splash plays. Mahomes needed 53 drop backs against a miserable Panthers defense to produce 283 yards and three touchdowns. His 6 air yards per attempt ranked 18th out of 25 qualifying QBs in Week 12.
Now Mahomes is due for a not-as-great visit from the reaper after throwing ten touchdowns over his past four outings. His 6.5 percent touchdown rate over that stretch likely won’t hold for long unless the Chiefs altogether abandon the run on Black Friday against a soft Raiders defense. I suppose Mahomes is startable this week in one-QB formats, but just barely. A little TD regression and he’ll be back in the mid-tier QB3 territory.
Wide Receiver
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Much to the horror of anyone who, with great glee, took Justin Jefferson in the first round of fantasy drafts, Jordan Addison has 95 more air yards and the same number of targets as Jetta over the Vikings’ past three games.
Small samples being what they are, it’s clear Addison is taking full advantage of secondaries that have committed bigly to stopping Jefferson at any cost (Addison should have had another touchdown against Chicago if Darnold had seen him wide open in the flat). Addison’s ascent up the Minnesota pass-catching pecking order is reflected in his targets per route run rate. From Week 1-8, Addison saw a target on just 15 percent of his pass routes. Since Week 10, that rate has jumped to 21 percent. Jefferson has been targeted on a humble 17 percent of his routes over that three-game span. For Jefferson drafters, all is dark.
Addison in Week 12 against the Bears once again out-targeted Jefferson, catching eight of his nine looks for 162 yards and a touchdown. Addison since Week 10 has more air yards than all but four receivers while Jefferson is outside the top-20.
I’m not here to tell you Addison won’t blow the roof off every week for the rest of the fantasy season. You’re a regression truther and you know this. But it’s not as if Addison has gotten away with it over these past three games. Sam Darnold is clearly prioritizing Addison; hence his hefty target per route run rate. He’s seeing enough targets in the intermediate areas of the field to give him some kind of weekly fantasy baseline, along with downfield looks that can — and have — provided the upside.
While I have Addison in this negative regression space, I think you can confidently play him as a top-30 fantasy option in a perpetually-balanced Minnesota offense.
Tre Tucker (LV)
Don’t be fooled by Tucker’s Week 12 outing against the Broncos, when had a season-high eight catches for 82 yards against Denver. It was the first time Tucker has been fantasy relevant since late September.
Tucker, along with Jakobi Meyers to a lesser extent, was a beneficiary of wildly inflated drop back volume in Week 12. Vegas led the NFL with 64 drop backs in comeback game script -- enough to generate 33 targets between Meyers, Tucker, and Brock Bowers.
That doesn’t strike me as bankable going forward, especially with Gardner Minshew done for the season with a broken collarbone. Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder represent massive hits to the fantasy prospects of every pass catcher in the Raiders offense. Barring an injury to Meyers in the season’s final month, Tucker should remain on waiver wires in most leagues.
Keenan Allen (CHI)
Allen scored a bunch of fantasy points on benches across the world in Week 12 against the Vikings. That included one of my benches, where he has resided for months. So it goes.
In his 86 yard, one-touchdown performance against Minnesota, Allen saw a target on 31 percent of his pass routes, way up from his season-long rate of 21 percent. This came against a Vikings defense that has been relatively generous to opposing slot pass catchers this season and Caleb Williams happened to log 54 drop backs, the second most of his young pro career.
Allen had inflated drop back volume and a quietly good matchup on his side in Week 12. I’m reluctant to say he’ll continue to earn targets at such a high clip in Week 13 and beyond (though the Bears could be forced into a pass-heavy trailing game script against the Lions Death Machine on Thanksgiving Day).
DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
You’re fine with whatever happened to Hopkins in Week 12 against the Panthers because he caught one of Patrick Mahomes’ three touchdowns. Only nerds care about anything else.
Well, we’re nerds. Hopkins again had limited route participation in Week 12, logging a pass route on just 45 percent of Mahomes’ drop backs. JuJu Smith-Schuster ran more routes than Hopkins. So did Justin Watson. Since joining the Chiefs, Hopkins has a 57 percent route rate. It’s bleak stuff.
It’s unclear as to why Hopkins isn’t running a full complement of routes. Maybe it’s his summertime knee injury or the Chiefs once again not taking the regular season seriously and waiting for January to deploy the full force of their offense. Whatever it is, it’s concerning and could eventually bite fantasy managers directly in the hindparts (this is a family friendly column). Be wary of Hopkins in an otherwise favorable Week 13 matchup against a Vegas secondary giving up the NFL’s sixth highest passing success rate.
Keon Coleman (BUF)
With Coleman possibly returning to the Buffalo lineup in Week 13, this is your reminder that three of the rookie’s 22 receptions this season have been touchdowns and he has the fourth highest yards per catch among wideouts with at least 20 targets. Some are saying Coleman is running hot. My interns are working to confirm.
Coleman, who wasn’t exactly a target commander in college, has seen a target on a humble 16 percent of his pass routes in 2024. That might not hurt him as much as I think it will if the Bills offense continues its pass heavy ways; only the Bengals and Chiefs have a higher pass rate over expected since Week 7.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (MIA)
The hottest player in fantasy is called Jonnu. He has everything: Short-area receptions, yards after the catch, a high target per route run, and that weird thing where you treat a tight end like an actual receiver.
Smith second among tight ends in receptions and first in receiving yards over the past month, has run somewhat hot with a 8.5 yards after the catch per reception over his past four games. No tight end has a higher YAC/catch over that span, and though it’s part of why the Dolphins signed Smith, that kind of after-the-catch production probably can’t last. His career average sits at 7. Jonnu has caught 83 percent of his targets since Week 9. That doesn’t seem sustainable either.
This doesn’t mean you’re not starting Jonnu in 12-team leagues if you faded the position in August drafts. I would caution against using him over top-end options, however, if you just so happened to stumble upon him in a bye week tizzy as a replacement for your main guy.
