We are back, baby, and all the way back in action with the weekly Optimal Flex Plays! Even though it’s only Week 1, you may find yourself having to make certain decisions that can get you off to a good start this fantasy season. Who the heck doesn’t want to start off 1-0 in fantasy? Well, I’m going to get you set straight and we’ll all enjoy the fruits of our fantasy draft labor.
Having seven games with an O/U of at least 45 points for Week 1 is exciting as it shows you just how far offense has come in the NFL. If you’re reading this, well, keep reading, we have fantasy matchups to win.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs vs. Ravens
Simply put, the Chiefs are going to want to use their new young weapon and get him a big splash play. While Rashee Rice should obviously be in your lineups, Hollywood Brown being out makes it even more important for Worthy to step up. When we saw him on the field last (Week 2 of the preseason), Worthy caught 3-of-6 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown while adding a run for 11 yards. This included a 39-yard catch-and-run delivered by Patrick Mahomes and he finished it off with a 22-yard touchdown catch from Carson Wentz. The Chiefs will test the Ravens’ secondary to make sure they can handle the young speedster with Mahomes having his best deep threat (in Worthy) since Tyreek Hill. What may surprise football fans the most? Worthy can run the whole route tree with ease, it should be fun.
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Jayden Reed, WR, Packers at Eagles
I want to say “start any Packers’ receiver”, but for one, that would be cheating and two, it’s not realistic to believe all of them will gain 100+ receiving yards. What I do know is that Reed is coming off a rookie season in which he went 64-793-8. He added another 119 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. The Packers love to get their young playmaker the ball in a variety of ways. While the Eagles made it a point to beef up their secondary this season, they’ll have to show that they’ve improved their NFL’s second-worst pass defense ranking from a year ago. If they can’t get a pass rush, expect Jordan Love to find guys like Reed for big yards. This game has the third-highest O/U of Week 1 at 48.5, but are you really surprised? This game will have a lot of fantasy relevancy and it includes Reed.
Greg Dortch or Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals at Bills
You should expect the Cardinals to be better this season, but why? Because of guys like Wilson and Dortch. We know about Marvin Harrison Jr. and the talent he possesses. We know about Matthew Berry’s “Ride or Die” Kyler Murray and guys like James Conner, but you’ve got to be as good as your least-strong (for now) weapons. Wilson is coming off a rookie campaign in which he went 38-656-3 while making 12 starts. Dortch will occupy the slot and perhaps take advantage of a spot where the Bills may have holes after losing franchise safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the offseason. They’ll be replaced by Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp who had a combined two starts last season. With one of the higher game point totals of Week 1 (48) and two exciting quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Kyler Murray), this game has track meet potential.
Zack Moss, RB, Bengals vs. Patriots
There’s been a lot more hype going around for Moss’s teammate Chase Brown this summer, but game script could work in his favor. The Bengals are 8.5-point favorites against the Patriots and the game total of 40.5 (tied for the lowest of Week 1), suggest the Patriots’ offense won’t provide much resistance. Moss is coming off a career-best 794 rushing yards, five touchdowns and was RB4 in total fantasy points scored through Week 8 of last season. We do expect Moss to concede touches to Brown (who could very well have a good game himself), but Moss was at the very least brought in to carry the ball on first and second down. The problem for the Patriots won’t be their defense; it could be the amount of time the offense allows them to stay off the field. Look for Moss to wear them down.
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Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins vs. Jaguars
If you’re reading this and thinking “Mostert had 21 touchdowns last season, how is he in the FLEX?”… Well, because he was drafted like one this summer. Despite his first 1,000-yard rushing season and an RB5 finish in total fantasy points, the 32-year old Mostert was drafted as RB22 (as opposed to RB7 for De’Von Achane) according to Fantasy Life ADP. As of right now HE IS LITERALLY THE DOLPHINS’ STARTING RUNNING BACK on a team that had the best offense in football last season. The Jags had a top-10 rush defense last season, but in a game where the O/U is 49 points, you should expect some points to be scored. Mostert proved last season he could punch it in from close, scoring 12 rushing touchdowns on 20 carries inside the 5-yard line. The “old man” will get it done in Week 1.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions vs. Rams
Is this Williams’ year? That remains to be seen, but this could be his game and it’ll be right here on NBC (of course). With the highest game total in Week 1 at 51 points, this Wildcard Round rematch from a season ago is sure to set the stage on fire. While the Lions drafted some nice defensive backs, neither they nor the Rams return a top-tier passing defense. For the Rams, they brought in veterans like Tre’Davious White to help out, but can he or any of their defensive backs keep up with Williams? I don’t think so and they will certainly be put to the test. Dan Campbell has been singing Williams’ praises all off season and we should expect it to pay off starting in Week 1.
