If the cool kids hate one thing, it’s kickers.
Maybe they don’t hate the guys actually playing the kicker position in the NFL, but the inclusion of kicker in fantasy football. The coolest among us rage at this injustice and swear off any league that has a kicker spot among receivers, running backs, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
I’ve talked and written ad nauseam about the predictability of the kicker position relative to quarterback and defense, for instance, but I won’t bore you with those details beyond reminding you that kickers are not nearly as volatile as the leather-wearing, chain-smoking cool kids would have you believe (in my head, Danny Zuko from Grease hates kickers in fantasy).
This social pressure to swear off the kicker position has led to generations of fantasy managers who quietly and with great shame seek kicker advice from me and the precious few fantasy football analysts who write and talk about the position from undisclosed locations, as to stay safe from the anti-kicker radicals. They seek their kicker advice in dark back alleys, in the wee hours of the morning. They ask the man behind the Arby’s dumpster: Does the Seahawks’ implied total make Jason Myers a decent waiver add?
Want to know how I know you’re fiending for kicker advice ahead of your fantasy drafts? Because you’re messaging me about kickers. You’re DMing and emailing and writing letters and knocking on my door at three in the morning. It’s all very flattering (sorry to the guy I pepper sprayed in the middle of the night last Wednesday; your questions about Matt Gay were valid).
But no more. I am once again bringing kicker advice into the light of day. We shall feel no shame about our kicker queries, as we are shameless in our questions about worthwhile quarterback or tight end of defensive options.
Below are kickers I’m targeting in the final or second to last round of drafts (if you don’t see the kicker you’ve been drafting this summer, don’t freak out; these are just my preferences). But first, a quick rundown of kickers I’m fading in 2023. And please, for the love of all that’s holy, don’t be the person who takes Justin Tucker in the 10th round. You will reveal yourself as the mark.
2023 Kicker Fades
Daniel Carlson (LV)
Yes, I’m asking you not to draft the guy with back-to-back elite fantasy seasons under his proverbial belt. I’m anticipating the Raiders being a complete disaster this season -- it’s not the kind of environment we want for a kicker. Last year, Carlson averaged a heady 2.7 field goal attempts per game in Vegas wins and 1.7 in losses. The Raiders enter 2023 with the league’s second toughest strength of schedule, and Josh McDaniels wasn’t particularly conservative on fourth downs in field goal range last season.
The Raiders were atrocious in the red zone last season. Even a slight bounceback that results in more touchdown scoring would be a knock on Carlson’s opportunity. I foresee Carlson being more matchup dependent than we’d like in 2023. You can do better with a lesser-known fantasy kicker.
Chris Boswell (PIT)
The Steelers, you may have heard by now, were extremely unlucky on the touchdown scoring front in 2022. Only the Lions and Chiefs had a higher yards per drive than the Steelers in the season’s second half and they still only managed 29 total touchdowns, the second fewest in the league.
That generated ample opportunity for Boswell and the Pittsburgh kickers, who led the NFL with 43 field goal attempts. More touchdown scoring for the Steelers in 2023 — which is all but guaranteed — should put Boswell in the streamer category.
Jake Elliott (PHI)
Elliott seemed like a fantastic fantasy play every single week last year. He fit the process perfectly, and yet was barely fantasy viable even in deeper formats. He’s a victim of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles being unstoppable in the red zone (they scored a touchdown on 68 percent of their inside-the-20 possessions, the league’s third highest rate). Only the Titans had fewer field goal tries than the Eagles in 2022.
That head coach Nick Sirianni is among the most aggressive red zone play callers is less-than-great news for Elliott. He’ll certainly have some streaming appeal in 2023, but you’re not taking him as an every-week fantasy starter.
Harrison Butker (KC)
Butker has probably created more fantasy frustration than any high-end kicker in the history of our nerdy little game. He’s attached to an offense that marches up and down the field with the uninterrupted stride of an imperial army yet profiles as a hit-or-miss fantasy option. Patrick Mahomes and company aren’t bad at punching it in for six (only Dallas had a higher touchdown rate in the red zone last year).
Butker will be among the first three or four kickers off your fantasy board. Let someone else deal with the headaches he brings. Butker’s fantasy value has come to hinge on long field goal attempts, which are neither predictable nor worth chasing. Butker has made around half of his field goal attempts of over 50 yards over the past two seasons, and last season, he posted the worst conversion rate of his NFL career. Andy Reid isn’t interested in three pointers. There’s no reason to draft Butker in 12-team leagues.
2023 Kicker Targets
Younghoe Koo (ATL)
There are more than a couple reasons I’m all in on Koo this season. Let’s boil it down to two: The Falcons should see plenty of neutral and positive game script and Arthur Smith is more than willing to take red zone field goals. The man is old school in every conceivable way, including his new, unfortunate mustache.
Koo in 2022 was fantasy’s fifth highest scoring kicker with a remarkable 13 games of two or more field goal tries (it doesn’t hurt that Koo is good, nailing 89.3 percent of his field goals since breaking out in 2019). Atlanta, thanks largely to being in the super-soft NFC South, has the league’s second easiest strength of schedule. As long as Desmond Ridder — or whoever is under center for Atlanta — doesn’t completely fall to pieces this season, Koo should be in position to post elite fantasy numbers once again. Even so, do not draft him before the second to last round of your draft. If you do, I will know, and my henchmen will be at your door the following morning.
Blake Grupe (NO)
I originally touted longtime Saints kicker Wil Lutz in this space. Then Broncos head coach Sean Payton got nostalgic for his days in New Orleans and for some reason acquired Lutz in a trade on Tuesday. Lutz might be a decent option in Denver — please don’t draft him based on the city’s thin air — but it’s Lutz’s replacement I want to talk about.
Blake Grupe, who reportedly won the Saints’ starting kicker gig before the team traded Lutz to Denver, spent his first four collegiate seasons at Arkansas State before playing his final year at Notre Dame, where he 14 of 19 field goal tries and all 49 of his extra points. Grupe was mostly middling during his five college seasons; his 74.6 percent field goal conversion rate isn’t going to engender much confidence in fantasy managers. By all accounts, Grupe has been stellar in Saints training camp and acquitted himself well in New Orleans’ preseason games.
Derek Carr as an upgrade at QB in New Orleans should be enough to create the kind of game script we need for Grupe to put up consistent fantasy numbers. The Saints in 2022 were the least aggressive red zone team by far. Dennis Allen, it seems, enjoys a short field goal as much as anyone. They also have the softest strength of schedule headed into the regular season, with Grupe set to play 13 of 17 games in the comfort and glorious windlessness of a dome (all football should be played in domes, per the analytics).
Matt Gay (IND)
I’ve talked a lot lately on the Rotoworld Football Show about how good of an offensive environment the Colts might have in 2023. Anthony Richardson’s nearly-unmatched ability to avoid sacks and make something out of nothing means the rookie should be able to extend drives and generally boost the fantasy prospects of everyone attached to him. That includes Matt Gay.
Gay, who this spring signed an eyebrow raising four-year, $22.5 million deal with Indy, converted 94 percent of his field goal attempts over the past two seasons with the Rams. Gay has been nails from distance, making 93.4 percent of his attempts from more than 50 yards since the start of the 2021 season. With a steady dose of RPOs and play action, I see the Colts as the kind of offense that can generate plenty of opportunity for its kicker. The best thing about targeting Gay in fantasy leagues? No one else will.
Jake Moody (SF)
I always try to tout injured kickers. It’s good process. It’s how you get ahead in this cutthroat industry.
So here I am telling you to consider taking Moody, who’s dealing with a quad injury, with one of your final two picks this summer. Moody was excellent at Michigan: He made 87 percent of his kicks over his final two collegiate seasons, often in unfavorable conditions. Importantly -- as fantasy managers surely know -- Kyle Shanahan has no interest in red zone touchdowns. He’ll happily take three points from the two yard line as an unapologetic attack on analytics nerds. Just last year, Robbie Gould was a top-10 fantasy kicker while missing a game.
If those points don’t make you a Moody maniac, consider the kicker’s frightening dawg levels. That’s my final pitch.
Graham Gano (NYG)
Brian Daboll proved to be a conservative play caller inside the 20 yard line in 2022. Only four teams were less aggressive than the G-people in the red zone, and it paid off bigly for Gano, fantasy’s sixth highest scoring kicker last year.
Gano had a solid 32 field goal tries despite the Giants having the NFL’s fifth best touchdown conversion rate inside the 20. That he made eight of his nine field goals of more than 50 yards is a bit of a red flag, though some red zone backsliding for Daniel Jones and the Giants could held counteract whatever long distance regression Gano might experience in 2023. You could do a lot worse.
Greg Zuerlein (NYJ)
A top defense and a stabilized offense should afford Zuerlein another season with lots of opportunity. Even with the Jets offense devolving into a complete tire fire in 2022, Zuerlein finished as a top-12 fantasy kicker on the strength of 33 attempts.
Though Greg the Leg has been dicey in recent years -- he made a meager 81 percent of his 2022 kicks -- he should suffice as a usable fantasy play with Aaron Rodgers (likely) turning the Jets into an NFL-caliber offense.
