Last week, the intro to this column talked about higher-end every week starters on defense who had bad Week 16 matchups like the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. How they could be set to disappoint fantasy managers at the worst possible time.
Sure enough, the Cowboys and 49ers both had rough weeks, finishing outside the top-20 in fantasy points.
The Ravens, on the other hand, appeared to take even the insinuation that they might have a down week against the team allowing the fewest fantasy points to defenses entering Week 16 as a personal insult.
The Ravens went into San Francisco and throttled the NFC’s best team, logging four sacks, intercepting Brock Purdy four times (and then Sam Darnold a fifth after Purdy was knocked from the game) and posting the second-best fantasy stat line of the week among defenses. It was a reminder that every-week starters sometimes have that status for a reason.
Of course, in this most important of weeks the Ravens have what could be another difficult matchup. The Miami Dolphins are as potent offensively as any team in the league, leading the league in scoring at 30.9 points per game. They just hung a clunker on the Dallas defense and rank in the bottom-10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to defenses.
But the Ravens are now the highest-scoring defense in fantasy football. And at this point it’s hard to imagine sidelining them for a streamer—especially with the game at M&T Bank Stadium.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
San Francisco 49ers (at Washington Commanders)
The 49ers admittedly disappointed against the Ravens, although it’s a tall ask for a defense to hold up after five turnovers. But the 49ers are still the NFL’s third-ranked run defense and scoring defense, lead the NFC with 25 takeaways, rank fifth among all defenses in fantasy points and face a Washington Commanders team this week that ranks fourth in the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses. All those fantasy managers bummed about the 49ers defense are about to be a whole lot happier.
Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Jets)
There isn’t a more surprising team in the league this year than the Browns, but while Joe Flacco is a great story the Browns have been carried by a defense that leads the NFL in both total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. The Browns have been fantasy-relevant as well—the team ranks sixth in the NFL in fantasy points at the position. Add in Cleveland playing at home in primetime with a chance to clinch a playoff spot against a Jets team giving up the second-most fantasy points to defenses, and you have about as good a setup as you can ask for.
Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
It has been an up-and-down season for the Buffalo Bills in general and the defense in particular. But of late both have been on their game—over their three-game win streak the Bills are averaging just over 16 points per game allowed, and the team ranks seventh for the season in fantasy points. Yes, the New England Patriots scored 26 points last week against the Denver Broncos, but that was the first time New England scored 20 points since stunning the Bills in Week 5—a game that I’m going to go out on a limb and say Buffalo hasn’t forgotten.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Colts admittedly did not fare well last week against the Atlanta Falcons, but Indianapolis remains eighth in fantasy points among defenses even after that down game thanks to a penchant for sacks (47—fifth in the NFL) and takeaways (24—tied for third in the league). In last week’s win over the Chiefs, the Raiders had 48 total passing yards and did not attempt a pass after the first quarter, The Raiders are also ninth in fantasy points surrendered to team defenses in 2023.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The Eagles are all but certainly going to win the NFC East, in no small part because their schedule is a cakewalk down the stretch. Philly hasn’t played as well defensively in 2023 as they did during their march to the Super Bowl last year—the team’s sack numbers are down, the pass defense has struggled, and the Eagles rank closer to the bottom of the league in fantasy points than the top. But the Cardinals are a bad football team that has been kind to opposing defenses, and Philadelphia cannot afford to take its foot off the gas even against tomato cans.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New York Jets (at Cleveland Browns)
The Jets have the defensive talent to be an every-week starter, but they’re also the poster defense for what happens when a team’s offense provides absolutely no hope whatsoever more weeks than not. The Browns are moving the ball and scoring points. But Joe Flacco has also thrown seven interceptions in the last three games, no team has more giveaways than Cleveland’s 32 and the Browns have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses in 2023. The Jets will probably lose this game. It also probably won’t be the defense’s fault.
Los Angeles Rams (at New York Giants)
At 8-7, the Rams have a real shot at making the playoffs this season, which was predicted back in September by absolutely no one. With that said, the team is succeeding as much in spite of its young defense as because of it—the Rams rank in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories and sit near the bottom of the league in fantasy points. But the Giants have had a tendency to make every team look like the ’85 Bears this year—the Giants have given up more sacks (77) and fantasy points to defenses than any team in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Jaguars are stuck in a Tom Petty song right now, and the defense has been no exception—Jacksonville has fallen 10 full spots in fantasy points over their month-long skid. But if ever there was a “get right” matchup for the Jags, it’s at home against the worst team in the NFL. The Panthers rank 30th in total offense, 29th in scoring offense, fifth in sacks allowed with 56 and fifth in fantasy points surrendered to defenses. If the Jags can’t get it done here, then Jacksonville isn’t making the playoffs—period.
Denver Broncos (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The Broncos would no doubt like to erase the memory of last week’s embarrassing home loss to the New England Patriots from their minds as soon as possible, but it’s not like the defense played badly in that game—New England scored one touchdown on defense and another on a short field. Easton Stick hasn’t been terrible under center for the Chargers, but over the past three weeks no team in the NFL has given up more fantasy points to team defenses.
Las Vegas Raiders (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Raiders are a better defensive football team than many realize—Vegas is eighth in the league in points allowed. They have also been on an absolute tear of late from a fantasy perspective—in each of the past two games the Raiders have posted a pair of defensive touchdowns. Counting on that every week probably isn’t an especially sound strategy, but the Colts have given the ball away 21 times this season and rank in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses. Over the last three weeks, no defense has more fantasy points—and it isn’t close.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year, Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks
