If you have read Getting Defensive for any length of time (Thank you for that—were it not for people reading it, I rather doubt my benevolent overlords here would allow me to keep writing it.), then you know that this analyst is a streamer where defenses are concerned, I play the matchups. Turn ‘em and burn ‘em. It works more often than not—at least for me.
With that said, I certainly don’t begrudge folks who choose to invest in an every-week starter at the position—who prefer the simplicity of just plugging a defense in every week. And sometimes, a defense drafted as a streamer morphs into an every-week starter. The proverbial caterpillar becomes a butterfly, or something to that effect.
The problem in Week 16 is that it’s a bad week for butterflies. In a must-win week for fantasy managers, many of the elite defenses have rotten matchups.
After 15 weeks, the Dallas Cowboys are fantasy football’s highest-scoring defense—by a fair margin. Fresh off getting smoked in Buffalo, those Cowboys face a Miami Dolphins team that leads the league in total offense and has surrendered the 10th-fewest fantasy points to defenses. The Baltimore Ravens, who lead all AFC defenses in fantasy points, face a San Francisco 49ers team that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position. The 49ers (who have climbed all the way to fourth in points) take on a Ravens team that has surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to defenses. The third-place team (Miami) draws a Dallas offense that ranks 31st in that regard.
Now, does a bad matchup doom these elite defenses to failure in this most important of weeks? Not necessarily. We’ve seen the Ravens demolish a 10-win Detroit Lions team. The 49ers have posted big stat lines against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cowboys. One defensive touchdown can turn an OK afternoon for a defense into a great one.
But this time of year, a dud performance at any position can mean the difference between moving on or the season ending. Like it or not, many of the biggest “names” of defense in fantasy this year would qualify as “Caveat Emptor” plays in Week 16.
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)
Not that long ago, the Eagles appeared to have one of the best defenses in the league. But the secondary has struggled this year. The pass rush isn’t what it was a season ago. The run defense has been gashed over Philly’s three-game skid. And the team has switched defensive play-callers to Matt Patricia. After a heartbreaker of a loss in Seattle, the Eagles have to be positively seething as they prepare to host a Giants team they will play twice over the next three weeks—a Giants team that leads the NFL in fantasy points given up to defenses.
Buffalo Bills (at Los Angeles Chargers)
There wasn’t a bigger statement win last week than the Bills’ thrashing of the Cowboys in Buffalo, and the defense put forth its best effort of the season in the win. Facing one of the most potent offenses in the league, the Bills allowed fewer than 200 yards of offense, sacked Dak Prescott three times and picked him off once. Now the Bills face Easton “Definitely Not Justin Herbert” Stick and a Chargers team that just allowed a pair of defensive touchdowns to the Raiders. The Bills can’t afford a letdown game given their precarious playoff positioning, so this should be a rout.
New York Jets (vs. Washington Commanders)
The Jets no doubt wish they could either go back in time to just before Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles or forward in time until this disaster of a season is mercifully over. Still, it’s not the defense’s fault that the Jets are awful—New York is seventh in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. Frankly, the season hasn’t gone one bit better in Washington—Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the NFL, and Washington heads into Week 16 surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses this year.
Indianapolis Colts (at Atlanta Falcons)
The Indianapolis Colts might just be the best fantasy defense that no one is really talking about. The Colts give up plenty of yards and points, but the team has a flair for the big play—Indy’s 46 sacks rank third in the league, the team is tied for the second-most takeaways in the NFL with 24 and the Colts rank among the top-five defenses in terms of fantasy points. This week the Colts face a Falcons team that managed just seven points and 204 yards of offense against the worst team in football last week. With Indy suddenly in the mix for an AFC South title, they should tee off on the Falcons in Week 16.
Cleveland Browns (at Houston Texans)
That the Browns are 9-5 despite an offense that has been ravaged by injuries and is being led by Joe “No Really, He’s Still Playing” Flacco is a testament to the fantastic job the Cleveland defense has done despite injuries of their own. That defense has admittedly scuffled a bit over the past few weeks, and if/when Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud clears the concussion protocol it will rob this matchup of some of its shine. But the Browns still lead the NFL in total defense and passing defense and rank eighth among team defenses in fantasy points for the year.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Chiefs halted their two-game skid last week against the New England Patriots, but Kansas City’s offense is still just a shell of the juggernaut we’ve seen in recent years. In fact, it can be argued that Kansas City’s fifth-ranked defense has been carrying the team. The Chiefs are even better in terms of points allowed—only two teams have allowed fewer. And Kansas City has made the big plays needed to be fantasy relevant, ranking 10th in fantasy points. The Raiders dropped 63 points on the Chargers last week—but the week before that they were shut out by the Minnesota Vikings.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Denver Broncos (vs. New England Patriots)
OK, the first thing you need to do here is just block out last week’s performance by the Denver defense, which may have been their worst since the Dolphins dropped a piano on Denver to the tune of 70 points back in Week 3. But there’s a significant difference between taking on the Dolphins or Lions and taking on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Patriots are 28th in yards per game. Dead last in the NFL in scoring at 13.3 points per game. And third in the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses this season. As matchups go, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more appealing one.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Jake Browning has gotten most of the run concerning Cincinnati’s recent turnaround, but while the Bengals defense has given up its fair share of yards of points, they have also made big plays in big spots—enough to keep the Bengals just inside the top 15 for the season in fantasy points. The Steelers, on the other hand, could be on their third quarterback of the season—if Kenny Pickett can’t play Sunday the team plans to start Mason Rudolph in an effort to jump-start an offense that ranks 27th in the league in yards per game and 28th in scoring.
Green Bay Packers (at Carolina Panthers)
The Green Bay Packers have spent most of the past month bouncing around—and right now they are bouncing in the wrong direction. Losers of two straight after getting back to .500, Green Bay’s fading playoff hopes hinge of getting a win Sunday against the hapless Panthers. Carolina has struggled miserably on offense this season, ranking 29th in yards per game, 30th in scoring, fourth in sacks allowed and fourth in fantasy points allowed to defenses this season. By just about any objective measure, the Panthers have been terrible offensively this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
That the Steelers are even on the fringes of the playoff hunt is almost solely due to the play of Edge-rusher T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense, who have effectively been carrying the team much of the season. However, that defense is coming off a rough outing against the Chiefs, and with Jake Browning racking up 300-yard passing outings, many fantasy managers are likely steering clear of the Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s teams tend to rally when their backs are against the wall, and while Browning has played well, he is a backup quarterback. This has the feel of a game that’s going to surprise some people.
Houston Texans (vs. Cleveland Browns)
There may not ge two more surprising teams in the NFL this year than the Houston Texans and the Cleveland Browns. The former was expected to struggle mightily, the latter is one win from double digits despite an almost comical number of injuries. But while the Browns have managed to keep winning, no team in the NFL has turned the ball over more, Cleveland’s 40 sacks allowed ranks eighth in the league and the Browns have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to defenses this season. This is the definition of a matchup play—and a big game for both teams.
Washington Commanders (at New York Jets)
Well, we’ve reached that point in the season—the point where Washington fans just want Week 18 to get here so they once again start pretending that next year might be different than this year. Head coach Ron Rivera is going to be fired, Quarterback Sam Howell isn’t the guy. The defense has been gutted by injuries and trades that sent both starting edge-rushers packing. The Commanders are a mess in just about every way that a team can be a mess, but when you’re about to play a Jets, team allowing the most fantasy points to defenses this year that might be led by Trevor “Not Him, Anyone but Him” Siemian, then you make this list—train wreck or no.
