In most fantasy football leagues, it’s all over but the crying. Week 17 brought with it the Championship Game. A champion has been crowned. There has been celebration from one manager and exasperation from another. The 2024 fantasy campaign has come to an end—and the Denver Broncos have finished as fantasy’s highest scoring defense.
You know—just like everyone expected. What with their Average Draft Position of 22nd among defenses for the year.
This is why you should just wait, draft a defense with good matchups early and then stream the position. This analyst will keep beating that drum so long as he has arms.
But some fantasy managers have a hard time saying goodbye. So, despite the possibility of teams with nothing to play for resting starters, they hold their championship games in Week 18. In 2024 at least, those managers are getting off relatively easily.
There are only four teams locked into their playoff seed—the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles. Everyone else is still playing for seeding or trying to make the playoffs. And one of those teams (Houston) will likely play their starters Sunday, if only because they have dropped two straight and looked like hot garbage in Week 17.
This isn’t to say there won’t be more players out than usual—teams out of the postseason have little reason to start nicked-up players. But things could be worse—a lot worse.
As a service to fantasy fanatics playing on in Week 18 (And to put a bow on another season of this column here at Rotoworld—hopefully it has been at least marginally helpful.), here is one final edition of Getting Defensive.
Well, until next season. If they’ll have me back. Please have me back. Pretty please?
Happy New Year, everyone!
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Ravens have been just a middling fantasy defense, largely because of struggles against the pass. But Baltimore is one of just two teams in the league with more than 50 sacks, no team in the AFC has allowed more sacks this season than the Browns, Cleveland has surrendered the most fantasy points to defenses this season and the Ravens win the AFC North with a victory here. With Dorian Terrible-Robinson the likely Week 18 starter for Cleveland, the Ravens are easily fantasy’s top defensive play in Week 18.
Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Were this a regular week, the Broncos would be more likely to make a “Caveat Emptor” appearance than be a “No Doubter.” But this isn’t a normal week—the No. 1 defense in fantasy football faces a must-win game against a Chiefs team that is already locked into the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Chiefs will almost certainly rest a bevy of offensive starters like quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. The Broncos lead the league in sacks, rank sixth in takeaways and have more fantasy points than any team in the league. Bring on Carson Wentz!
Buffalo Bills (at New England Patriots)
As was already mentioned, the Bills have nothing to play for this week—the Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC win or lose. That knocks some of the luster off fantasy’s fourth-ranked defense, but Buffalo could still post a solid defensive outing. The Patriots will likely be without the services of quarterback Drake Maye in this game, New England has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses this season, and when last we saw the Pats they were getting mollywhopped 40-7 by the Los Angeles Chargers—at home.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Don’t let the Raiders’ two-game winning streak fool you—Vegas remains a bad football team with a struggling offense that ranks third in the league in giveaways, fifth in the NFL in sacks allowed and fourth in fantasy points surrendered to defenses. The Chargers rank eighth among all fantasy defenses in points after four sacks and a takeaway in last week’s blasting of the Patriots, and the Bolts are trying to avoid sliding into the AFC’s No. 7 seed and having to face a Bills team in the Wild Card Round that is undefeated at home this season.
Green Pay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
The Packers have been the quality fantasy defense no one has been talking about—fifth in points for the season, with 15 or more fantasy points in two of their last three games. The Bears, on the other hand, just managed all of three points and 179 yards of total offense at home last week against the Seahawks. The Bears have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to defenses and have allowed more sacks than any team in the NFL. With Green Bay trying to secure the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs, the Pack should roll at Lambeau Field.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)
Like the Buffalo Bills, the Eagles are locked in as the second seed in the NFC—we probably won’t be seeing Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts or running back Saquon Barkley Sunday. But even if the Eagles sit some defensive starters, the team could still have success against a Giants team that has given up 48 sacks, ranks 29th in total offense and has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to defenses. Last week’s 45-point fluke aside, the Giants are a terrible offensive football team—and frankly one that should be making every effort to lose Sunday.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans Saints)
It was tempting to include the Buccaneers among the “No Doubters” this week, but given that Tampa sits 21st in the league in total defense and 17th in fantasy points among defenses for the season, they aren’t exactly an automatic “hit.” They will be this week, though—the Buccaneers need a win over what’s left of the Saints to win the NFC South, and New Orleans has been an offensive disaster of late. Over the last month, New Orleans has allowed the third-most fantasy points to defenses, and the Saints could be rolling out a third-string running back, rookie quarterback and three parking lot attendants at wide receiver.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
The Rams are champions of the NFC West, but what many don’t realize is that much of LA’s recent success has had more to do with the team’s young defense than an offense that hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. Over the last three weeks, the Rams are eighth in fantasy points among defenses. And while the Seattle Seahawks wouldn’t seem a great fantasy matchup for defenses, the team has actually allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position this year. The Rams are trying to hang on to the third seed in the NFC, so their starters should play most of the game.
Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans)
Again, the Texans are the AFC’s fourth seed regardless of what happens Sunday in Nashville. But after getting waylaid 31-2 by the Baltimore Ravens last week, head coach DeMeco Ryans has made it clear that there won’t be any resting of players in Week 18. The Titans are coming off a loss to the lowly Jaguars, Tennessee ranks 28th in the league in total offense, the team has given up 50 sacks, no team in the NFL has turned the ball over more and the Titans have given up the second-most fantasy points to defenses for the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Jaguars are not a good defensive team by any stretch of the imagination—Jacksonville has allowed more yards per game than any team in the AFC, and the Jags are 28th in the league in scoring defense. But the Colts haven’t exactly been an offensive dynamo, and even when they do move the ball, Indianapolis has been prone to making mistakes—the Colts’ 29 giveaways for the season ranks third in the league and Indy has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to defenses. As a desperation play or dirt-cheap DFS option, there’s at least some appeal here.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Minnesota Vikings (at Detroit Lions)
It has been quite the party for fantasy managers with the Vikings defense on the roster this year—Minnesota finally fell behind the Broncos, but the team’s penchant for harassing opposing quarterbacks and making big plays has led to eight games with double-digit fantasy points this season. However, the last of those efforts came back in Week 11, and Sunday night the Vikings play a 14-win Lions team that just dropped 40 on the San Francisco 49ers. No team in the NFC has given up fewer fantasy points to defenses this year than the Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Steelers have struggled of late—just 13 points total from the defense over the past three games. But even with that skid, the Steelers head into an important Saturday matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals as fantasy’s No. 3 defense. But while Pittsburgh’s defense has been struggling, Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense has been on a roll—over the last month the fighting Joe Burrows have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to defenses. Frankly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bengals win this game—in Pittsburgh.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
