If you’re reading this, one of two things has happened. Either you are (likely) in your fantasy league’s championship game (or at least the semifinals), or you’re looking for any possible excuse to take a break from Cousin Carl’s exposition on how the world is, in fact, flat.
There’s an ice wall, man. An ice wall. Gotta love family.
Folks who have advanced this far into the fantasy postseason generally fall into one of two camps where team defenses are concerned. There are the folks who have been riding a high-scoring unit like the Denver Broncos or Minnesota Vikings for most of the season (although the former is coming off their worst fantasy effort of the year), or you have been Living the Stream with matchup plays.
Frankly, an argument can be made for some of the first group to jump ship and join the latter in Week 17—there aren’t a lot of really appealing matchups among the high-end defenses this week, and plenty of teams who trotted out the Broncos last week who learned the hard way that a dud in the playoffs can wreck the season.
But it isn’t for this analyst to tell those folks what to do. Not in the playoffs. Fantasy managers have to make up their own minds about the players they start in Week 17. There is no worse feeling in fantasy football than letting yourself get talked out of a start that winds up haunting them until Easter, when Carl tells you about the lizard people who rule the Earth.
Seriously. It’s a thing.
This week’s Getting Defensive is just about offering information. Getting lean and mean and to the point (Stay gone too long, and people will come looking for you—believe me.). What you fine folks do with the information is completely up to you. This writer has just one order of sorts for you all.
Have a Happy Holiday season. Enjoy the time with family. The swag. The food.
Memories of time spent with the people you love are truly priceless.
Or so the greeting card I got in the mail from my dentist said, anyway.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
The Bills actually appeared headed for a rather pedestrian defensive effort last week until a gift touchdown on a backward pass to Rhamondre Stevenson accounted for over half their scoring for the week. Unless the Kansas City Chiefs win and the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers both lose on Christmas, the Bills will have something to play for in Week 17, so Buffalo will likely be at full strength against an Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense that scored nine points last week and ranks 24th in the NFL in scoring offense.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
There are admittedly a few reasons to be nervous about fantasy’s ninth-ranked defense for the season. The Eagles just allowed a 22-point quarter to Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. It’s likely that Kenny “Not a Country Music Singer but His Name Sounds Like It” Pickett will be playing quarterback for the Eagles with Jalen Hurts. And Cooper Rush has been surprisingly competent under center for the Cowboys. But the Eagles need to wrap up the NFC East and still have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference, and Dallas has given up the 12th-most fantasy points to defenses in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The Vikings are not an elite defensive team. There are things the Vikes do well—Minnesota ranks fifth in the league with 44 sacks, owns the best run defense in the NFC, ranks second in the league in fantasy points among defenses and have taken the ball away more than any team that isn’t the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Packers aren’t a great matchup for fantasy defenses—they have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. But in the first meeting between these teams, the Vikings picked Jordan Love off three times and posted a solid stat line.
Los Angeles Chargers (at New England Patriots)
This fantasy play looked a lot better a week ago, before the Chargers allowed 27 points to the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots gave the Buffalo Bills all they could handle. But the Patriots remain one of the more mistake-prone teams in the league. The Pats are 29th in total offense and 30th in scoring offense. The 47 sacks New England has given up this year is seventh-most in the NFL. And after 16 weeks, New England has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses. This is a get-right spot for a Chargers team looking to sew up a playoff spot.
Seattle Seahawks (at Chicago Bears)
The Seattle Seahawks are clinging to playoff hopes after losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings last week, but the team has quietly been a defense fantasy option defensively—10th at the position in fantasy points for the season. The past couple of weeks have been choppy, but prior to that Seattle peeled off three straight performances with double-digit fantasy points. Now the Seahawks head east to take on a reeling Chicago Bears team that leads the NFC in sacks allowed and has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to defenses.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
I see that side-eye, mister. Yes, the Steelers just allowed 34 points in a lopsided loss to the rival Ravens. Now Pittsburgh has to play the two-time defending Super Bowl champions on a short week. But while the Chiefs are 14-1 and haven’t been a favorable fantasy matchup for team defenses this season, this could be a surprisingly favorable matchup. The Steelers can get after the quarterback, especially with Alex Highsmith healthy again. Patrick Mahomes has an ouchie ankle. And Pittsburgh is one of three team defenses averaging over 10 fantasy points per game.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Miami Dolphins (at Cleveland Browns)
The only reason that the Dolphins aren’t a no-brainer in Week 17 is that Miami ranks 27th in fantasy points among defenses. But this week those Dolphins get a dream matchup. The Cleveland Clowns have allowed more fantasy points to defenses than any team in the league. They lead the league in sacks allowed with 63. Only the Tennessee Titans have turned the ball over. And in their infinite wisdom, the Browns decided that the best way to remedy that disaster was to make Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starting quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts (at New York Giants)
The Colts haven’t been an especially great fantasy defense—last week the team allowed 30 points to the Mason Rudolph-led Tennessee Titans. But this has very little to do with the Colts and everything to do with the disaster of a team they are playing. It doesn’t appear to matter which terrible quarterback the New York Giants start. Drew Lock. Danny Devito. Whatever. The Giants are dead last in the NFL in scoring offense and have surrendered more fantasy points to defenses than any team in the NFC.
Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
The Commanders are one of the NFL’s most surprising teams in 2024, but the Washington defense hasn’t done much of interest to fantasy managers this season—the team ranks 25th in the league in fantasy points at the position and has hit double digits in points just twice all season long. The Falcons have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to defenses this season, and while Atlanta scored 34 points in Michael Penix’s NFL debut last week that was against a putrid New York Giants team in a game where the Falcons had a pair of pick-sixes.
Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
For much of the season, the Titans were among the league leaders in yards allowed per game, although that didn’t really translate to fantasy production. Then last week, Jonathan Taylor ran for all the yards ever and the Colts dropped 38 on Tennessee. However, sometimes you have to trust in the matchup. The Mac “Stop Calling Me Tom” Jones led Jaguars could only put up 14 points last week against a bad Raiders defense with no Maxx Crosby. The Jaguars have also surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses over the second half of the 2024 season.
Las Vegas Raiders (at New Orleans Saints)
The Raiders haven’t been good defensively this season, and the team’s best defensive player by a massive margin is on injured reserve. The Raiders are 30th in fantasy points among defenses for the season. But quietly over the past month, something has changed—Vegas is seventh in fantasy points over the past month. Now, the Raiders face a Saints team that just became the first NFL team shut out this season. A Saints team that has been decimated by injuries. A Saints team that has allowed the eighth-most fantast points to defenses this season.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
The Broncos are fantasy football’s highest-scoring defense after 16 weeks. They lead the league with 51 sacks. Rank sixth in the league in takeaways. Denver is ninth in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. But last week against the Chargers, the Broncos surrendered 34 points and managed just two sacks and an interception. Now, the Broncos travel to face a Cincinnati Bengals team that ranks sixth in the NFL in scoring and who have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to defenses this season.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
