We’re in the thick of it now. In most fantasy football leagues, just one month remains in the regular season. Four games to determine who moves on to the playoffs and who calls it a year well before Christmas.
The stretch run has arrived.
After 10 weeks, the team defense landscape looks like exactly no one suspected - which is frankly par for the course where defenses are concerned. The No. 1 defense (the Minnesota Vikings) thrives on big plays but can’t cover a bed with a sheet some weeks. The No. 2 defense in terms of points per game (the Los Angeles Chargers) was an afterthought in drafts. Many of the defenses that were drafted early are fantasy afterthoughts now.
It’s the nature of the beast at fantasy’s least predictable position. The reason why streaming defenses is the only way to fly. But fantasy managers don’t want the streaming speech right now. They want to know what defenses can help (or hurt) them in Week 11. They want to live in the now.
So, let’s get defensive.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee Titans)
This is such a “perfect storm” situation that something weird will probably happen - fantasy football’s highest-scoring defense taking on the team that has given up the most fantasy points per game to defenses this season. No team in the NFC has allowed fewer yards per game on the ground this season. Only the New England Patriots have thrown for fewer yards per game this season than the Titans. The Titans have also allowed 28 sacks and are tied for the third-most giveaways in the NFL in 2024. As was said, this matchup is almost too good to be true.
Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
The Broncos have exceeded expectations this season, largely because the defense has been consistently excellent - Denver ranks fifth in total defense, seventh in run defense, fourth in scoring defense and leads all AFC defenses in total fantasy points. On paper at least, the Atlanta Falcons would appear to have the skill-position talent to challenge just about any defense. But last week against a Saints team riding a seven-game losing streak, the Falcons struggled to move the ball consistently. Denver won’t make it any easier this week.
Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys)
The Texans played a great first half against the Detroit Lions last week. The problem is that NFL games have two halves. Still, Houston intercepted Jared Goff five times in that game, paving the way for the team’s fourth double-digit defensive effort in fantasy points in the last five games. The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t do anything on offense in last week’s blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and unless the team kidnaps a quarterback this week that’s not likely to change in Week 11 given that Dallas can’t run the ball worth a lick, either.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Chargers are a 6-3 team that has peeled off three wins in a row, and a big reason for that success is a defense that leads the NFL in points per game allowed and sits second among all fantasy defenses in points per game. This week presents a genuine challenge - the Bengals just rolled up almost 500 yards of offense in a game where wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase had approximately all the receiving yards ever. But the Chargers have an excellent secondary and pass-rushers who should be able to get after Joe Burrow Sunday night.
Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Lions have felt the loss of edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson from an NFL perspective, but in fantasy leagues the team has been Honolulu Blue-hot - since Week 6 only the Philadelphia Eagles have more fantasy points at the position. Now the Lions welcome in a Jacksonville Jaguars team that will be without wide receiver Christian Kirk, will likely be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence and could also be without running back Tank Bigsby. Last week against the Vikings, the Jaguars had less than 150 total yards of offense.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
The 49ers have actually been something of a disappointment defensively this year, but the team is still ninth in total defense and 10th in fantasy points for the year. There have been weeks where the Seahawks have looked formidable offensively, but Seattle has also been prone to turning the ball over, with 15 giveaways for the season. The Niners might not be the elite fantasy option managers expected when they drafted them, but they should still finish among the top-10 at the position in Week 11.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Saints are a bad team that just came within a loss of their longest losing streak in over four decades. But the Saints are also quietly 12th among all defenses in fantasy points. The Saints aren’t lights-out in any particular defensive categories, but this is more about the Cleveland Browns than the Saints anyway. The Browns are third in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses this year, lead the league in sacks allowed by a wide margin and will be trotting out Jameis “Oops” Winston again this week - so you know there will be an interception or three thrown.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
A funny thing happened during Miami’s Week 10 win over the Rams in Los Angeles - the Dolphins’ defense showed up. A team with no big-time edge-rushers consistently put pressure on Matthew Stafford. The Dolphins forced a pair of turnovers. And they held the Rams out of the end zone on the way to their best fantasy outing of the season. This week the Dolphins face another must-win game against a Raiders team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to team defenses this year.
New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Remember when Aaron Rodgers was going to ride in and save the day for Gang Green? Yeah - neither do Jets fans. And after watching the Jets defense get absolutely abused last week by the Arizona Cardinals, it’s not especially easy to get behind the team defensively, either. But there appear to be two ways this game can go for the Colts. They can either start youngster Anthony Richardson and his non-existent completion percentage or (more likely) trot out Joe “Turnover Machine” Flacco out there again. Both bode well for the Jets defense.
Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
The Packers aren’t a great defensive team, but they aren’t a bad one either - Green Bay ranks in the top-15 in most statistical categories, although they have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush. The Pack also quietly ranks inside the top-12 fantasy defenses for the season. But Green Bay isn’t listed here because of what they are doing defensively. They are listed here because of what the Bears are not doing offensively - which is to say anything. Since returning from their bye, Chicago is fourth in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.
Los Angeles Rams (at New England Patriots)
It has admittedly been an up-and-down season for the Rams’ young defense, not just from week-to-week but also sometimes from quarter to quarter. However, the front-seven in Los Angeles is significantly better than most expected - especially at rushing the passer. The Rams are eighth among fantasy defenses in total points, have posted monster stat lines (20+ fantasy points) twice in the past month), and this week the Rams travel to face a New England Patriots team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the more surprising success stories of 2024, and if they can beat the rival Ravens at home this week Pittsburgh can take firm control of the AFC North. T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh’s second-ranked scoring defense deserve a lot of credit for that success as Pittsburgh is a top-five fantasy defense in terms of points per game. But the Ravens offense is an absolute buzzsaw - Baltimore is averaging over 440 yards of offense and 31 points per game and sits dead last in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses this season.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
