It seems like only yesterday that the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs were kicking off the 2024 season. But here we are, in Week 10. The stretch run is almost here - and for every fantasy manager who is cruising down Easy Street, there’s another who is on Desperation Drive.
And let me tell you, that’s a bad part of town.
For teams sitting at 4-5 or 3-6, there is precious little margin for error - if there’s any at all. There has been too much losing and not enough winning. Bad decisions. Bad beats. Injuries.
The thing is, it doesn’t matter how we got here (Yes, I said “we.” No, I don’t want to talk about it.). All that matters now is reversing that trend. Stacking some wins. Making a push for the postseason.
It can be done. I once won a championship with a team that was 3-7 after 10 weeks. Snuck in as the No. 6 seed, got hot in the playoffs and made a lot of people with better records bitter.
Of course, getting those wins means scoring points. Milking every possible one off your roster and into your starting lineup. And that means that “afterthought” positions like team defense and kicker become that much more important. Plugging in the right defense can be the difference between winning and losing. And a Week 10 win can be the one that makes the difference between the playoffs and a disappointing end to the season.
Not sure if that puts more pressure or you or me, but in any event, let’s get to it.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Los Angeles Chargers have been a pleasant surprise at 5-3 this season, and Khalil Mack, Derwin James and the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense have given up just 12.6 points per game. The Chargers are also fourth among all defenses this season in fantasy points, the game is at SoFi Stadium and the Titans have surrendered more fantasy points per game to defenses this season than any team in the NFL. We didn’t come into the season looking at the Bolts as an every-week starter on defense - but that’s essentially where we are.
Minnesota Vikings (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
After a down Week 8, the Vikings defense was right back at it for fantasy managers against the Indianapolis Colts - three sacks, two takeaways and just six points allowed to the Fighting Flaccos offense. On paper, this week the Vikings face a better offense in the Jaguars. But games aren’t played on paper, and the Jaguars have been a mess more often than not this season. The Jaguars are short-handed at wide receiver, beat up at running back and the team traded its starting left tackle to the, um, Minnesota Vikings.
Chicago Bears (vs. New England Patriots)
The Bears are coming off a lopsided loss to the Cardinals in Arizona, but that was more on Caleb Williams and the offense than the Bears defense. I know, you’re stunned. Only the Minnesota Vikings have scored more fantasy points among defenses this season than the Bears, and while Drake Maye has given the Patriots offense a boost, we’re still talking about a team that ranks outside the top-20 in yards per game, 30th in the league in points per game and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to team defenses.
Buffalo Bills (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Bills won in shootout fashion last week against the Miami Dolphins, but Buffalo has been decent defensively this season - eighth in the league in points allowed per game and 10th in the NFL in fantasy points. The Colts made a switch to Joe Flacco at quarterback last week, but it didn’t jolt the offense - it scored just six points against the Vikings and managed just 227 yards of offense. For the season, the Colts have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses over the past two weeks.
San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
It has been an up-and-down 2024 season for the 49ers, but the defense has been a relatively steady presence - 10th in the league in yards per game allowed and seventh among all defenses in fantasy points. The Niners face Baker Mayfield and the struggling Buccaneers coming out of the bye week, and with injuries mounting Mayfield has been pressing the action in the passing game. That raises the possibility of mistakes, and those are a good thing for opposing defenses. Mayfield’s nine interceptions this season are the second-most in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
The Denver Broncos are an impossible team to figure out. One week, it appears that the Broncos are making real progress offensively. Then, as in last week’s beatdown in Baltimore, all that progress seemingly evaporates in a cloud of blah and Bo Nix reverts to looking very much like a rookie quarterback. It’s unlikely that Denver is going to be able to run the ball against Kansas City’s third-ranked run defense. That’s going to force Nix to throw the ball - and that means pass-rush opportunities and the chance for turnovers.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
The Philadelphia Eagles have had their struggles defensively this season - especially against the pass. For the year, the Eagles have ranked in the middle of the pack in fantasy points. But this has more to do with who the Eagles are playing than how the Eagles are playing. The Cowboys were already a favorable fantasy matchup for defenses - 11th in fantasy points per game given up to defenses this season. Now, with Dak Prescott sidelined indefinitely by a hamstring injury, the Cowboys will be trotting out Cooper Rush at quarterback.
New York Giants (at Carolina Panthers)
Who’s up for some bratwurst and lederhosen? Next week the Giants face the Panthers in Germany, in a game that could set international relations back with that country for years. The Giants have not been an especially good defense this year, but the team has more than a little talent on that side of the ball - especially in the front-seven. The Panthers have been one of the worst offenses in the league this season - 30th in yards per game and 29th in points per game. The Panthers have also surrendered the third-most fantasy points per game to team defenses over the last month.
Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
The Falcons are in first place in the NFC South, but the defense hasn’t done a lot for fantasy managers - Atlanta is 25th in the league in fantasy points among defenses. But this week’s matchup with the reeling Saints is highly favorable - no team in the NFC has surrendered more fantasy points per game to defenses over the last month, and New Orleans got quarterback Derek Carr back just in time to fire their head coach and lose their No. 1 wide receiver. If ever there was a week for the Falcons to post a fat stat line, this is it.
New England Patriots (at Chicago Bears)
It has been a rough season for the New England Patriots, and last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans was a new nadir. For the season, the Patriots are 26th in total defense and 29th in fantasy points among defenses. But the Pats have some deeper league streaming appeal this week, largely because of their opponent. The Bears are a .500 team, but the offense has been all over the place. The past two weeks have been rough - the Bears are allowing double-digit points per game over that span, and Caleb Williams got dinged up in last week’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Washington Commanders)
The Steelers come out of their bye week an impressive 6-2 for the season, in no small part because of T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and a Steelers defense that ranks ninth in yards per game allowed, second in points per game allowed and fifth among all fantasy defenses in points per game. However, the Steelers will have their hands full this week with Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders - Washington is third in the NFL in scoring and has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to defenses in 2024.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
