It appears the Steelers were done with the George Pickens Experience.
On Wednesday, the Steelers sent the 24-year-old Pickens to the Cowboys in exchange for a 2026 third-round draft pick and a 2027 sixth-rounder. Acquiring DK Metcalf then trading Pickens for such a low price suggests the mercurial wideout had worn out his three-year welcome with Mike Tomlin and company.
Apparently Tomlin can do without on-field tantrums. Maybe that’s not breaking news.
Pickens’ arrival in Dallas changes the fantasy landscape for a bunch of players, most prominently DK Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, and Dak Prescott, along with Aaron Rodgers if his circuitous spiritual journey includes a stop at Steelers training camp this summer.
Impact on Cowboys
An abomination without equal coming out of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Cowboys receiver room looks a whole lot better with the acquisition of Pickens. Only five teams had a lower collective yards per route run than the Boys last year. Dallas ranked 25th in first downs per route run. They needed a second viable wideout in the worst way.
His occasional lack of effort and on-field antics might distract from Pickens functioning as one of the league’s most effective downfield pass catchers since entering the NFL in 2022.
Pickens ranks third in receiving yardage on vertical pass routes over those three seasons, trailing only Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. Pickens accomplished this while trapped in a massively run-heavy Pittsburgh offense without a viable NFL starting quarterback. Pickens’ domination of low-percentage sideline targets has churned out surprisingly high efficiency: Since the start of the 2022 season, only 21 wideouts have a higher EPA (expected points added) per target than Pickens, who ranks above notable names like Mike Evans, Zay Flowers, and DJ Moore.
PICKENS GOES 86 YARDS TO THE HOUSE
— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2023
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Pickens was never much of a touchdown scorer in Pittsburgh. He managed just 12 scores over 48 games with the Steelers, earning 29 percent of the team’s end zone targets over that span — a fairly low mark for a No. 1 receiver. Last year, Pickens had a mere seven targets inside the ten yard line, as many as Jalen Tolbert and Van Jefferson. His red zone usage would need to change if he’s going to reach his ceiling outcome in Dallas.
Pickens should provide Dak Prescott with something he has sorely missed in recent seasons: A real deal downfield threat. Even in the Steelers’ run-first scheme last season, Pickens was third in targets of more than 20 yards downfield and second in receiving yards on downfield receptions. Pickens had just one drop on 30 downfield looks in 2024.
Prescott, meanwhile, has been a solid if unspectacular deep ball thrower. Dak in 2024 ranked 15th out of 40 qualifying QBs in downfield accuracy. In 2023, he was seventh out of 40 quarterbacks. Having a deep ball-snatching specialist like Pickens could make Dak an elite downfield passer in 2025 if the Cowboys can manage to keep Pickens engaged.
Lamb last season saw 28 percent of the Cowboys’ air yards, hardly a gaudy rate. That’s bound to slide below the 25 percent mark with Pickens in the mix. Lamb should still eat well on short and intermediate targets while Pickens sees more high-variance looks in the deeper areas. Acquiring Pickens could free up Lamb to operate (almost) exclusively from the slot, where he’s been downright dominant over the past couple seasons. Only four receivers had more slot targets than Lamb in 2024 (slot looks being the easy stuff, which we like in fantasy). He could easily lead the league in slot targets in 2025.
Lamb remains an unquestionably elite fantasy option in 2025 and could benefit from opposing secondaries being a little less willing to tilt coverage to his side of the field with Pickens in the lineup.
Impact on Steelers
Both Pickens and DK Metcalf have devoured air yards during their NFL careers. Their skill sets were very much duplicative, which made Pittsburgh’s acquisition of Metcalf something of a head scratcher. It makes more sense today with Pickens booted to Dallas.
With Pickens in the fold, Metcalf was going to struggle to put up top-24 fantasy numbers in a Steelers offense that last season under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was 4.5 percent below their expected pass rate, the third lowest rate in the NFL. To drive home the point: Steelers pass catchers in 2024 had the second fewest total targets in the league, and four teams had fewer total receptions than the Steelers.
With Pickens gone, Metcalf has a real avenue to the kind of target and air yards share he would need to be a locked-in WR2 in 12-team formats.
Metcalf in 2024 had the 11th most air yards among wideouts despite missing two games. He ranked sixth in air yards per game in the Seattle offense. A mere seven receivers have racked up more air yards than Metcalf since the start of the 2022 season. I understand air yards don’t count for much in fantasy — you can’t feed your family with air yards, I’ve tried — but they are a critical component in evaluating who is and who is not seeing valuable opportunities.
Unless Metcalf has a touchdown-heavy season, he should be capped at top-15 status among fantasy wideouts, with top-20 a more likely outcome. A spike in TD catches — perhaps with Aaron Rodgers at the helm — could potentially push Metcalf into WR1 territory as a clearcut No. 1 option in Pittsburgh.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported on Wednesday that the Steelers are “counting” on Roman Wilson to step up as the team’s No. 2 wideout with Pickens traded away. Steelers coaches and front office officials told Fowler that Wilson — who essentially red shirted his 2024 rookie campaign with a severe hamstring injury — looks far better and more prepared than he did this time last year.
Wilson’s analytical profile coming out of Michigan wasn’t all that bad. In the Wolverines’ run-dominated offense, Wilson ranked 19th among all college receivers in yards per route run and wasn’t half bad in creating after the catch. The 84th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Wilson should get every chance to be the No. 2 guy behind Metcalf in 2025. It’s notoriously tough to be fantasy relevant as the second pass-catching option in an Arthur Smith-controlled offense, however.
