In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Panthers vs. Falcons
Highlighting the Falcons defense as a sneaky pass funnel worked out well in Week 17: Jayden Daniels dropped back a season-high 49 times and Washington was nearly 7 percent over its expected pass rate. It’s further confirmation that the Falcons have arrived as one of the NFL’s most reliable pass funnels. For that we can be grateful. We love our predictability, don’t we folks.
Bryce Young is set to drop back and throw a bunch of passes this week against an Atlanta defense that has seen the third highest pass rate over expected against them since Week 12. Falcons opponents since Week 12 have leaned toward the pass in neutral situations too, passing the ball 61 percent of the time when the game is within one score.
This should be a continuation of a trend for a Panthers offense that has been above its expected pass rate in five of their past seven games. Without Chuba Hubbard to lean on as the centerpiece of the offense, the Panthers last week resorted to a 76 percent drop back rate against Tampa, 2 percent over expected.
Adam Thielen is the obvious winner here. The grizzled veteran has garnered 28 percent of the team’s targets and 32 percent of the air yards. He’s all but guaranteed double digit targets against the Falcons this week. Don’t overlook Xavier Legette, who leads the Panthers in air yards over the past month and had a team-high nine targets last week against the Bucs. Legette is an undeniably volatile option. Here’s the thing with volatile fantasy plays: That volatility includes immense upside.
Chargers vs. Raiders
It’s still very much to be determined whether Jim Harbaugh will play his starters in Week 18 against the hapless Raiders. Justin Herbert and company could spend Sunday holding clipboards and politely clapping for second and third stringers, depending on the outcome of Saturday’s games.
If Herbert and Ladd McConkey and the rest of the LA starters suit up against Vegas, they’re in a tremendous spot against the NFL’s fourth most pronounced pass funnel defense.
The Chargers, as mentioned once or twice or 600 times in this space over the past couple months, have become a reliably pass-first offense. Only six teams have a higher pass rate over expected since Week 11. The Bolts haven’t been under their expected pass rate since Week 9. That they were 4 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 1 against these Raiders doesn’t mean a whole lot since the Chargers have since undergone what can best be described as an philosophical transformation since the start of November.
Lots of Herbert drop backs obviously makes McConkey — with a 23 percent target share and a slight lead in team air yards over the past three weeks — an elite option against Vegas. It could also provide a boost for Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer, who has enjoyed a team-leading 30 percent air yards share since Week 10. You may call them “prayer yards” because air yards to Palmer are rarely converted into yards that can feed your family and your pet dog. That’s fair.
Will Dissly, back from his multi-week shoulder injury, split route running duties with Stone Smartt in Week 17 against the Patriots. Assuming that usage holds, neither LA tight end is playable.
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Run Funnel Matchups
Texans vs. Titans
I tried to avoid games where starters will definitely sit, but this one was too good to pass up. That’s because the Titans have increasingly profiled as an exploitable run funnel defense, having faced the fourth lowest pass rate over expected over the past month.
With Joe Mixon unlikely to see so much as a single snap against the Titans, Dameon Pierce profiles as a workhorse option against a Tennessee front seven that has been gouged for the league’s fourth highest rush EPA since Week 13. Only six teams have allowed a higher rate of rush yards before contact over the past four weeks.
Pierce should be up for lead back duties here, though he may share the backfield with Dare Ogunbowale. Monitor the Texans backfield situations closely (keep it locked to Rotoworld dot com, as the zoomers say) in the next couple days.
Falcons vs. Panthers
The last time these teams met — a 38-20 Week 6 drubbing of Carolina — the Falcons had a miniscule 44 percent drop back rate and logged 39 rushing attempts. Expect more of the same this week, even with Michael Penix under center, against a Panthers defense that ranks as the league’s third most extreme run funnel.
Only two Carolina opponents have been over their expected pass rate in 2024, partly because game script against the dead-on-arrival Panthers dictates a run-heavy approach, and partly because the Panthers are pretty dang bad at stopping the run. Carolina has allowed a league-high 49 percent rushing success rate this season, and only the Bears and Commanders have given up a higher rate of rush yards before contact. The Falcons may not be familiar with these exact nerdy metrics, but they know the Panthers front seven can be bullied.
As I wrote a couple weeks ago ahead of the Falcons’ Week 15 game against the Giants, a massively run-first script could mean Tyler Allgeier is in play as a viable fantasy option. While Bijan Robinson is in the smash spot to end all smash spots, Allgeier could be the trickle-down beneficiary of another Atlanta outing with 35-40 rushing attempts.
Against the run-funnel Giants defense, Allgeier indeed saw solid opportunity with 12 touches. That he managed 23 total yards is another story entirely — one I would not like to talk about. I’d much rather talk about Allgeier’s 108 total yards and one touchdown on 19 touches in Week 6 against these Panthers. Allgeier notched a ludicrous 4.4 yards after contact per rush in that outing.
Another run-heavy game for the Falcons would naturally limit volume for Darnell Mooney, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, though Atlanta’s 28.5-point implied total suggests someone besides Robinson will get there for fantasy purposes. This is where I tell you two wideouts have more air yards than London since Week 10, and only eight receivers have more expected fantasy points over that span.
Packers vs. Bears
I’ve included this game only to tell you there will be precious little fantasy juice to go around among Green Bay pass catchers in Week 18 — less than usual, somehow.
Chicago’s defense profiles as the NFL’s third most pronounced run funnel, allowing the second highest rate of rush yards before contact in 2024. And you know the story with the Packers: They will establish the run at any cost, and when a team practically invites them to run the ball at a high clip, the Pack will happily oblige. Only five teams, after all, have a lower pass rate over expected than Green Bay this season.
In Week 11, the Packers were 11 percent below their expected pass rate against these Bears, totaling 106 yards and two scores on the ground. They sported the third best rush EPA of that week. Whoever leads the Packers in targets this week might not get more than five looks from Jordan Love. Meanwhile, it remains Josh Jacobs szn.
