In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
49ers vs. Lions
I’ve written a few times this season about the Niners offense as a prime (positive) regression candidate, mostly because they’re running so incredibly cold in the passing attack, with some of the worst red zone luck (variance) you’ll ever see. Perhaps this is a function of Brock Purdy being exposed as a mid or lower-tier NFL starter with the Shanahan button-pushing offense malfunctioning in 2024.
Or maybe Purdy and the Niners will finally break loose from the fantasy-unfriendly chains of regression in these final couple weeks of the regular season.
This week they face a Lions defense that ranks as the league’s third most pronounced pass funnel, trailing only the Ravens and Bucs. Detroit has faced a 60 percent neutral pass rate this season. Only four Detroit opponents have been under their expected pass rate through Week 16; even run-first offenses have turned toward the pass against these Lions.
Expect more of the same in Week 17 from a 49ers offense that shifted hard toward the pass last week against the Dolphins. San Francisco was nearly 12 percent over its expected pass rate against Miami, their pass heaviest game of the season. This transpired, naturally, with the team down to it’s fourth-string running back, Patrick Taylor. A Week 17 return of Isaac Guerendo could change the run-pass calculus, if only slightly.
A boost in drop backs for Purdy would trickle down to Jujuan Jennings, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, whose usage changed dramatically in last week’s loss to Miami, as I wrote about in this week’s Regression Files. If the 49ers continue using Samuel as an extension of the run game — as they used to — a matchup against an extreme pass funnel could generate another fantasy-worthy outing for Deebo drafters who somehow made it to championship week.
It’s a good spot for everyone involved: Only five teams have given up a higher drop back EPA than Detroit over the past three weeks. It might even make Purdy fantasy viable.
Commanders vs. Falcons
Atlanta’s defense has snuck up on us as a legit pass funnel. That I didn’t flag this a couple weeks ago is a failure on my part as the world’s leading funnel defense knower. It won’t happen again.
Anyway, only three teams have seen a higher pass rate over expected against them since Week 13. Even the miserable Drew Lock-led Giants were 10 percent over their expected pass rate against the Falcons last week. Atlanta opponents are passing at a 64 percent clip in neutral situations (when the game is within one score) over the past month, and teams are continuing to throw against Atlanta even when they’re leading. That’s a rarity.
This could be just the thing to create a second straight pass heavy game for Jayden Daniels and the usually run heavy Washington offense. The Commanders last week against the Eagles were 5 percent over their expected pass rate, which generated 48 drop backs for Daniels. Washington hasn’t had a truly run-heavy game since Week 9. Since then, they have been balanced or slightly pass-first.
If the Commanders continue the pass-first trend against the suddenly pass-funnel Falcons and Michael Penix plays well enough to keep the game competitive — preventing the Commanders from taking the proverbial air out of the ball — then we’re likely looking at another 40 drop backs for Daniels. Obviously this is excellent news for Terry McLaurin, who has seen 47 percent of the team’s air yards and 23 percent of the targets with Noah Brown sidelined over the past couple games. Zach Ertz could see a bump in opportunities too, and makes for a reasonable streaming option.
A matchup against the pass funnel Falcons could also work out quite well for Olamide Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus in Week 16 ran a route on 32 of Daniels’ 48 drop backs against the Eagles and caught five of eight targets for 70 yards and two scores. He’s been targeted on a not-hateful 20 percent of his pass routes this season and appears to be the Commanders’ No. 2 wideout behind McLaurin. You could do worse than Zaccheaus in deeper formats this week.
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Run Funnel Matchups
Patriots vs. Chargers
LA has morphed into a fairly reliable run funnel over the past month or so. Only the Bills and 49ers have seen a lower pass rate over expected against them than the Chargers since Week 11, with teams passing at a 56 percent neutral rate against the Bolts over that span.
It should set up well for the run-first, run-only Patriots offense, though who will benefit is an open question. Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said this week that Rhamondre Stevenson’s ongoing fumbling issues — he lost another one in Week 16 against Buffalo — could cost him the primary back gig in Week 17.
If Stevenson maintains lead back duties, a matchup with the run funnel Chargers could create a decent workload. Stevenson, who ranks 16th in running back carries since Week 10, has a shot to see 15-plus touches if the Pats can maintain some neutral or positive game script against the favored Chargers. It’s not a bad spot for Stevenson (or Gibson, if we get word that he’ll get the starting job this week): The Chargers are allowing the NFL’s sixth highest rush EPA since Week 11, and only the Dolphins and Giants allow a higher rate of rush yards after contact.
Bucs vs. Panthers
The last time these teams met, in Week 13, Tampa was 14 percent below its expected pass rate — their run-heaviest outing of the entire season. You might not be bowled over to know Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 36 rushing attempts that day (25 for Irving and 11 for White).
The Tampa backs averaged 6.5 yards per carry between them, along with a hearty 4.5 yards after contact per rush. That sort of production makes sense against a Carolina defense allowing the league’s highest rushing success rate. It makes more than a little sense that even of the past nine Carolina opponents have been below their expected pass rate.
The Bucs, who largely abandoned their pass-heavy ways in November, are all but guaranteed to lean hard on the run in Week 17 against these Panthers. Irving becomes an elite play while White is certainly usable as a flex option. The Bucs are sporting a 53 percent neutral pass rate since Week 13, the seventh lowest in the NFL over that stretch.
A lack of drop back volume for Baker Mayfield could impact his secondary and tertiary pass catchers, such as Jalen McMillan and whoever plays tight end for Tampa in Week 17. McMillan is running hot and due to regress. Add that to what will likely be a run-first game script and the shine comes off McMillan headed into fantasy championship week. He’s certainly not unplayable, but the conditions won’t be as friendly as they have been for the Bucs’ No. 2 receiver.
