In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Cowboys vs. Bucs
You, a regular Funnel Defense Report reader, are stunned beyond description to see the Tampa Bay Bucs featured in this space. It’s been a whole week since you’ve read about what an extreme pass funnel the Bucs defense has been in 2024. Not much has changed over that week.
Tampa is now the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnel defense after the Chargers went 13 percent over their expected pass rate against the Bucs in Week 15. The Bolts on the season are less than 1 percent over their expected pass rate. Only three teams all season have been below their expected pass rate against the Bucs. Tampa opponents are passing the ball at a league-high 63 percent clip in neutral situations (when the score is within seven points either way).
It all points to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys being at least somewhat pass heavy in Week 16 against the Pewter Pirates. The Rush-led Dallas offense has been relatively balanced in neutral game scripts, with a middle-of-the-road 60 percent pass rate in such situations. It’s been good news for CeeDee Lamb that the Cowboys have not turtled into a hugely run-heavy scheme because they’re terrified of Rush making a mistake or three. The team seems quietly confident Rush can operate from the pocket and conduct a somewhat normal offense, as he did in Week 15 against Carolina when he was 13th in drop back EPA among 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
That this game features a week-high Vegas total of 48.5 points — up from 46.5 at the start of the week — suggests fantasy managers should be open to playing peripheral Dallas pass catchers like Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks.
Cooks matches up against a Tampa secondary allowing the third most receptions to opposing wideouts this season. Only eight defenses have allowed more wideout receiving yards than the Bucs. A bunch of drop backs for Rush — who has multiple touchdown passes in three of his past four outings — could inflate target numbers for Cooks.
Ferguson, meanwhile, retains a solid tight end profile headed into Week 16 against the pass funnel Bucs. Last week against the Panthers, he ran a route on 25 of the team’s 30 drop backs and drew three targets. Nearly 70 percent of his routes originated in the slot or out wide. Like I said, it’s hardly the worst profile for a fantasy-viable tight end.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Bears vs. Lions
The last time the Bears faced off against Detroit, they were almost 13 percent over their expected drop back rate, with Caleb Williams logging 48 drop backs — the third most of his rookie season.
This is nothing new for teams playing the Lions. Detroit headed into Week 16 qualifies as the league’s third most pronounced pass funnel defense. They’ve faced a 60 percent neutral pass rate in 2024, the league’s second highest mark. Caleb and the Bears didn’t get much in the way of neutral script in their Week 13 loss to Detroit, but they passed at an 83 percent clip with the game within one touchdown.
Another pass-heavy script against the Lions in Week 16 should fuel target volume for all three of the Bears’ primary pass catchers, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Moore and Allen, vacuuming up short area looks from Williams, are going to be far more reliable fantasy producers than Odunze, who happens to be the primary downfield target with a QB who is abysmal at throwing downfield. Increased drop back volume is sometimes the antidote for a downfield pass catcher who sees high-variance targets.
A big dose of drop backs for Williams might — just maybe — put Cole Kmet in play as a desperation tight end streaming option against the Lions. Kmet had three grabs for 38 yards against Detroit in Week 13.
Run Funnel Matchups
Falcons vs. Giants
Probably Michael Penix won’t have to do a whole lot in his NFL starting debut against the down-abominably Giants. The Falcons have been one of the most stubbornly run-first teams in the NFL all season and the Giants increasingly profile as a run funnel defense. It’s a nice little mix if the Falcons are hoping for their rookie quarterback to do precious little this week.
Only six teams have faced a lower pass rate over expected than New York since Week 9. The G-people give up the league’s seventh highest rushing success rate and eighth highest rush EPA on the season. They’ve been stingy in rush yards before contact, but no team has been gouged for more rush yards after contact than the Giants in 2024.
Obviously this sets up nicely for Bijan Robinson, an elite Week 16 fantasy option who’s all but guaranteed to see 20 touches here. I’m highlighting Atlanta’s run funnel matchup because it could put Tyler Allgeier in play for fantasy managers sifting through last-ditch running back options in Week 16.
Allgeier has at least nine rushes in six games this season, mostly when the Falcons establish the run like it’s 1978. Here’s the thing about Allgeier: He’s good. He ranks fourth among running backs this season in yards after contact per rush and fifth in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. He’s a hyper efficient back, and has been for some time, whether Bijan drafters like it or not (they do not). Consider Allgeier in case runaway game script creates massive rush volume for Atlanta in Week 16.
Patriots vs. Bills
If you are of the (unwell) mind that the Patriots can hang tough with the Bills this week, Rhamondre Stevenson should be a good option. If you choose to embrace reality and and likelihood that the 14-point-dog Pats are staring into the abyss against Buffalo, Stevenson is a slightly shakier option.
Buffalo through Week 15 is the NFL’s sixth most extreme run funnel defense. Though they’ve been better against the run of late, the Bills on the season are giving up the third highest rate of rush yards before contact. In Week 16 they face a New England offense sporting a 54 percent neutral pass rate since Week 10. The Patriots, for painfully obvious reasons, want to keep the ball on the ground, and that usually means a heavy dose of Stevenson.
The likelihood here is that Stevenson’s role as the team’s thumper is wiped out by the unstoppable juggernaut we call the Buffalo offense and the Patriots are forced to drop back more than they ever imagined they would. That Stevenson and backfield mate Antonio Gibson have combined for six receptions on six targets over New England’s past two games shows just how uninvolved the running backs have been in the stagnant Patriots offense.
Still, Stevenson has a path — however narrow — to 20 touches in this game, making him a better play than other RB3s you may be considering for Week 16.
