In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Panthers vs. Bucs
Covering the Panthers-Chiefs game last Sunday, I almost felt bad for all the disparaging remarks I had lobbed in Bryce Young’s direction over the past year and a half. The guy who had in no way looked like a viable NFL quarterback picked apart a solid-if-unspectacular Kansas City coverage unit with anticipatory throws, strong throws into tight windows, and audibles at the line of scrimmage as Chiefs defenders threatened all-out blitzes.
Young, coming off Carolina’s bye, was an entirely new quarterback. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say Young’s Week 12 performance — 263 yards and one touchdown, 3.5 percent over his expected completion rate — was career-altering. It might’ve been the best development for the Panthers in a decade.
Carolina was 7 percent over its expected pass rate in their narrow loss to the fake elite Chiefs, the highest mark of their 2024 season. And Young’s 8.8 air yards per attempt was up from his career average of 7.6. It’s all very good for Young and his pass catchers.
Now Young and the Panthers get a matchup against the league’s second most extreme pass funnel defense. Bucs opponents in 2024 have been over their expected pass rate in eight of 11 games, and no team has faced a higher neutral pass rate. Teams have targeted the Tampa secondary for good reason: Only the Patriots and Bills allow a higher completion rate over expected and only three teams give up a higher pass EPA. In a game that has seen its Vegas total rise from 44 to 46.5 points over the past couple days, Panthers-Bucs might even have shootout potential, or something close to it. It makes Young a sneaky superflex option.
Journeyman WR David Moore in Week 12 was somehow Carolina’s top target earner. He saw ten looks from Young and caught the team’s lone passing score (and should have had another one). Moore, who ran a full complement of pass routes against the Chiefs, could be interesting this week if Jalen Coker (quad) remains out.
It was Xavier Legette and Moore who operated in two wideout sets for Carolina last week while Adam Thielen mixed in as the team’s primary slot guy. The problem for Thielen: The Panthers used three-receiver sets on just 70 percent of their offensive snaps. It’s tough to pin down exactly which Carolina pass catchers would benefit from a pass-heavy Week 13 approach. Any of Thielene, Moore, and Legette could see surprising usage against Tampa. Tommy Tremble, meanwhile, will run as the team’s TE1 with Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) sidelined. That Tremble has seen a target on 11 percent of his routes this season doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Commanders vs. Titans
Washington, as we’ve established in this space, wants to run the ball more than any team since the 1949 Bears. Per reports, Arthur Smith believes the Commanders’ commitment to the run is “a little much.”
Kliff Kingsbury might be forced to throw the ball a little more than usual in Week 13 against a Titans defense that has gradually become one of the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnels. Only four defenses rank as more extreme pass funnels through Week 12; four of the past five teams to face the Titans have been over their expected pass rate.
We’ve seen Kliff’s Commanders lean into the pass against other pass funnels. In Week 6 against the Ravens, Jayden Daniels had 35 pass attempts as Washington was nearly 8 percent above its expected pass rate. A couple weeks later, Daniels had a season-high 38 attempts against the Bears, with the Commanders going 10 percent over their expected pass rate.
Possibly without Brian Robinson (knee) and facing a Tennessee defense allowing the NFL’s fourth lowest rushing success rate, we should get another 30-plus attempt outing from Daniels — barring, of course, funky game script (always a possibility with Will Levis on the other side of the ball).
This probably translates into what the zoomers call a “giga smash spot” for Terry McLaurin. It also puts Zach Ertz, the last great millennial NFL player, firmly in play as a 12-team starter. Noah Brown, who had a team-leading ten targets last week against Dallas, should be a viable flex option in deeper formats against the pass-funnel Titans.
Run Funnel Matchups
Saints vs. Rams
I have to admit that the Rams have snuck up on me as a reliable run funnel. Sean Mcvay’s defense is now the league’s fifth most extreme run funnel — a trend I had not predicted with the Rams secondary being so gettable.
Five of the past six teams to play LA have been under their expected pass rate (PROE). That includes the Ravens in Week 12, who were -14 percent PROE against the Rams, their second run heaviest game of the season. Teams are attacking a Rams defense allowing the NFL’s fifth highest rate of rush yards before contact since Week 6.
That should continue in Week 13. And the primary beneficiaries are obvious: Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who combined for 35 touches the last time the Saints played. The New Orleans offense has passed the ball at a low 52 percent rate in neutral game script since Derek Carr’s return to the lineup in Week 9. If that keeps up here, with the Saints listed as 1.5-point underdogs, Hill and Kamara should be in for hefty workloads.
Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi on Tuesday delivered a body blow to the few remaining Taysom doubters out there, saying Hill would continue to be a “big part of what we do” and that his Week 10-11 usage would keep up until morale improves. He’s a must-start in 12-team formats against the run-funnel Rams.
Colts vs. Patriots
Jonathan Taylor drafters have been muttering under their breath, in public spaces no less, about the process. Taylor’s 56 rushes from Week 9-12 rank third among all running backs; his 206 rushing yards ranks eight, and he doesn’t have a single touchdown to show for any of it.
Taylor continues to dominate the backfield in a Colts offense with the fourth lowest pass rate over expected. Eventually that’s going to pay off, and it could be as soon as Week 13 against a New England defense seeing teams run the ball at the fourth highest rate in neutral game script this season.
The Colts, with a 53 percent pass rate in neutral situations since Week 9, should be massively run heavy against the Pats unless things go sideways for Anthony Richardson and company. New England’s defense has been fairly stingy this year in yards before contact, though they’re allowing the fifth highest rate of yards after contact per rush. It’s undeniably a good spot for Taylor, who should remain in all lineups.
Bills vs. 49ers
The Niners march east to get their collective butts handed to them by a red-hot Bills team that is taking no prisoners at the moment. Buffalo, entering as 8.5 point favorites, are more than a little likely to lean hard on the run against San Francisco, the league’s second most pronounced run funnel defense.
It’s a nice bounce back spot for James Cook after he was held to 20 yards on nine rushing attempts in Week 11 against Kansas City. Maybe you didn’t notice since he scored two touchdowns and Got Away With It. Cook should have volume on his side against a Niners defense that has seen eight of 11 opponents go under their expected pass rate in 2024.
A run-first script for Buffalo would obviously limit the pass volume that has fueled recent (relatively) big performances from Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Be careful with how you deploy Buffalo pass catchers against a 49ers defense that has seen the tenth fewest pass attempts per game.
