Our national nightmare is over.
One of the more memorable holdouts in recent memory has come to an end, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the 49ers have agreed to terms with Brandon Aiyuk on a four-year, $120 million contract extension that includes $76 million in guaranteed money.
After reports of multiple teams being interested in Aiyuk and the Steelers reportedly having a deal in place to trade for the star receiver and sign him to a deal, the fifth-year receiver will remain in the Bay Area with one of the league’s most dynamic offenses in hopes of another shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
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A return to San Francisco was always going to be the best-case scenario for Aiyuk as far as fantasy is concerned. A trade to the Steelers — who always felt like the most likely contender for a trade — would have been disastrous on all fronts. One can only imagine how depressing it would be to watch a talent like Aiyuk run block for 17 games in Arthur Smith’s offense while chasing down a handful of targets a game from Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but fortunately, we were saved from that reality.
Aiyuk has feasted during his last two years, specifically with Brock Purdy under center. Since entering the league in 2020, Aiyuk has averaged 13.6 points per game in PPR leagues. However, in 24 games played with Purdy, Aiyuk has averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game per the RotoViz Game Splits App and is on a 17-game pace for 79-1303-8.
It goes without saying that Aiyuk was a vital piece of the 49ers’ offensive success last season, but his efficiency and ability to create after the catch also played a crucial role in Purdy’s success, which is worth remembering for a quarterback who is currently going as the 11th quarterback off the board in Yahoo leagues.
Per PFF, amongst receivers who saw 80 or more targets, Aiyuk ranked 20th in YAC/REC and third in YPRR (3.01) behind Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins. Aiyuk’s 2.5 receiving touchdowns over expected also tied for fifth-best amongst receivers, and played a role in Purdy wildly exceeding his expected touchdown total of 22.0. Purdy’s nine touchdowns over expected were far and away the most of any quarterback — for some perspective, Joe Flacco was second with 3.1 touchdowns over expected in 2023.
Purdy finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game last season despite ranking as the QB22 in expected fantasy points. The return of Aiyuk keeps Purdy’s fantasy ceiling high, making him a potential smash as far as fantasy value is concerned.
Deebo Samuel’s fantasy season takes a slight hit with Aiyuk returning, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be too down on him. We are fresh off three straight years of witnessing the “Deebo Role” in action as Samuel continues to be utilized through the air and on the ground. While his 37 rush attempts were his fewest since 2020, Samuel still managed 225 rushing yards and five scores while posting a 60-892-7 line through the air. He’s been a top-15 fantasy receiver in two of his last three seasons and continues to project as a high-end WR2 with plenty of WR1 upside on a week-to-week basis.
Ricky Pearsall is the player most negatively impacted by Aiyuk’s return. The rookie first-rounder now becomes the third receiver in an offense that will likely prioritize Aiyuk, Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey in the passing game for the foreseeable future. Pearsall could still turn in the occasional spike week for best ball drafters who don’t need to make weekly start/sit decisions, but he’ll be hard to trust in start/sit leagues when the roster is at full strength.
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The Steelers Impact
It goes without saying that George Pickens remains the unquestioned WR1 in a Steelers receiver room that features no other star of note. With Diontae Johnson now in Carolina, Pickens stands to monopolize a significant amount of the Steelers’ target share.
We only have a four-game sample to go on, but since 2022, in the four games Pickens has played without Johnson, he has averaged a healthy 16.6 fantasy points per game to go with 8.3 targets per game. Over a 17-game span, he’s paced for 72-1,517-8. In the unlikely chance he sniffs those totals, Pickens would be one of the best values in all of the fantasy land in 2024, and the switch from Kenny Pickett to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields is still an improvement — though marginal.
Expectations still need to be tempered, but any concern of Aiyuk vulturing targets can now be laid to rest for Pickens, who is going as the WR28 in Yahoo. He’s far from free in drafts, but Pickens could make for a nice value on Zero RB rosters that allow you to start four to five receivers.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth also remains a worthwhile dart throw in the later rounds for drafters who kick the position down the board. After totaling 123 receptions for 1,229 yards and nine touchdowns in his first two years as a pro, Freiermuth struggled to the tune of 32-308-2 in 2023. Injuries played a role in these low totals, as Freiermuth was limited to 12 games, but he was far from the player coming off a 700-yard season in 2022.
Reports this offseason have been encouraging for Freiermuth, who has reportedly developed good chemistry with Wilson throughout the offseason and training camp. I touched on this in my 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview earlier in the year. With a chance to play more from the slot this season, Freiermuth has a chance to flourish. From 2021 - 2023, the Falcons, under Smith, targeted tight ends 172 times from the slight — the fourth-highest total in the league. Freiermuth has also ranked sixth amongst 42 tight ends in fantasy points per route run from the slot (0.61) over the last two years.
Second-year tight end Darnell Washington reportedly struggled in the passing game this offseason, meaning the majority of tight end targets should go to Freiermuth, who could be locked in as the No. 2 option in the target pecking order. Aiyuk would have easily relegated him to third, and perhaps even fourth, once running back targets are accounted for.