Quarterback
Start: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Cousins and the Falcons play in the game of the week. Their matchup with the Cowboys has a 51.5-point total which easily leads the slate. Atlanta has a 27.25 team total, the third-highest of the week. Dallas is known as a run funnel but are still only 25th in EPA per dropback allowed. They have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Start: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
The list of quarterbacks with a 20-point game this year includes Jameis Winston, Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, and many other obscure players. It does not, however, include Patrick Mahomes. That changes this week when Mahomes faces the Bucs. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in dropback EPA per play allowed and has faced the sixth-highest pass rate over expected this year. Vegas has the Chiefs with a 27 implied team total, the fourth-highest of the week. It’s now or never for Mahomes.
Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears
Williams’ play has turned around drastically since the first two weeks, but the Bears are determined to grind out low-scoring wins while leaning on their defense. They have a -2% pass rate over expected on the season and that has fallen to -4% during the past three weeks.
Williams last attempted more than 29 passes in Week 3 and he has two games over 226 yards this year. As narrow favorites versus the Cardinals, expect the Bears to limit his reps once again.
Sit: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
There are worse options than Mayfield this week. He is all but certain to have volume on his side as a big underdog to the Chiefs. But that is not enough to keep him in the QB1 ranks without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans on the field. Mayfield had three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 9.1 YPA on deep throws entering Week 8. He completed 1-of-6 deep throws in his first game without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Two of his attempts were intercepted and he averaged 4.2 yards per throw. Mayfield is currently the QB2 but shouldn’t be treated as anything close to such in Week 9.
Running Back
Start: Brian Robinson, Commanders
Robinson hit a 64 percent carry share in Week 8. That was his highest mark since suffering a knee injury in Week 5. The same is true of his 46 percent snap share. He ran 16 times for 65 yards. Robinson and the Commanders are four-point favorites versus the Giants this week. Despite missing a game and part of another, Robinson is sixth in the league in red zone attempts.
Update: Brian Robinson is listed as questionable for Week 9.
Robinson was limited in practice all week and should suit up, but be sure to check the Rotoworld news feed before kickoff.
Start: Tony Pollard...?
Pollard is listed as questionable despite not practicing once this week. Tyjae Spears has already been ruled out, so the Titans are seemingly taking Pollard’s status down to the wire. If he can go, the No. 3 back in yards after contact per carry will be a strong RB2 bet, even if limited by his foot injury. If Pollard is ruled out, Julius Chestnut would get the start in a phenomenal matchup.
The Titans are 3.5-point favorites versus the Patriots this week. As of Friday, it’s the last time they will be favored in a game this year. That’s not great for the Titans’ running backs going forward, but it’s phenomenal for their Week 9 outlook. They get a New England defense 25th in EPA per rush attempt allowed. The Pats have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
Sit: Javonte Williams, Broncos
Williams has been dreadful in most efficiency metrics this year. He ranks outside the top 50 running backs in PFF run grade and yards after contact per carry. Only two running backs have lost more yards versus their total expectation according to Next Gen Stats. He has skated by on volume in Denver’s wins but is a horrible bet for fantasy points in losses.
That’s going to be a problem this week as the Broncos are 8.5 point underdogs.
Sit: Nick Chubb, Browns
Chubb has yet to flash his otherworldly efficiency through two games. He is averaging 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and is slightly below his yardage expectation. Chubb’s career average in YAC per carry is 3.9. The Browns are slight underdogs this week and face a Chargers defense that has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs.
Wide Receiver
Start: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
McConkey is 15th in targets per route run (min. 150 routes) and 26th in target share on the year. Those numbers were only good for 11.2 fantasy points per game before LA’s Week 5 bye. They were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, stifling any potential fantasy production from the pass-catchers. Since then, the Chargers have upped their pass rate over expected to +3%.
The increase in passing volume has boosted McConkey’s fantasy output to 15.3 points per game over the past three weeks. He exploded for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. With Jim Harbaugh opening up the offense, McConkey is firmly in the WR2 ranks.
Start: Cedric Tillman, Browns
All three Browns wide receivers are in the FLEX conversation this week, but Tillman has run away with the No. 1 role in two games without Amari Cooper. Over the past two weeks, Tillman has a 24 percent target share and a 35 percent air yards share. He is the WR2 in expected fantasy points during that stretch.
Sit: Rome Odunze, Bears
Odunze’s splits with and without Keenan Allen remain dismal.
The rookie quietly boosted his target share to 30 percent in Week 8 but only caught three passes for 41 yards. That is actually his highest receiving total in games with Allen active. Odunze was used primarily as a deep threat last week, registering an aDOT of 17.7. The Cardinals have given up the 10th-fewest receptions on throws 15+ yards downfield.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
Hopkins only ran a route on 33 percent of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks in Week 8. That number will obviously grow in the coming weeks, but we need to see that before throwing him into our fantasy lineups. The Chiefs also failed to deploy him in the “Rashee Rice role.” He ran 86 percent of his routes from the outside and had an average target depth of 15 yards. Rice was used in the slot on nearly half of his routes and had an aDOT of 5.2.
This was not how he was deployed in his Chiefs debut fwiw. Lots of deep out breaking outs, digs, and slants from X spot. Didn't see mesh, option routes, etc. https://t.co/f0Mw1DZ0m8
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 29, 2024
Hopkins is currently a part-time player in a role that hasn’t had value for the Chiefs in years.
Tight End
Start: David Njoku, Browns
Njoku has a 23 percent target share in two games without Amari Cooper. His targets per route run is up to .23 in those contests. His aDOT has also skyrocketed from three yards in his first three games to 6.8 over the past two weeks. Going from Deshaun Watson, who only used Njoku as a check-down option, to Jameis Winston, who considers targets fewer than five yards downfield blasphemous, has played a big part in his role change. Njoku sits in the top half of the TE1 ranks for Week 9.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
Smith saw 27 percent of Miami’s targets in the two games before Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. While that didn’t hold, his numbers didn’t crater either. He earned a 17 percent target share in Week 8 and was targeted on 21 percent of his routes. The Dolphins/Bills game has the second-highest total of the week. Buffalo is favored by six. Trailing in a potential shootout, Tua should be throwing plenty, keeping Smith on the TE1 border.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
With four touchdowns in his past three games, Andrews is the perfect sell-high candidate. He has only run a route on 65 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks in those games. That would rank 22nd among tight ends on the year. The biggest change to his fantasy production has been an increase in passing output from the Ravens on the whole. Jackson has averaged 298 passing yards during Andrews’ touchdown-fueled renaissance. He was posting 241 yards per game over the first five contests of the year. As massive favorites over Denver, we should expect a low-wattage game from the Ravens’ passing attack and a descent back to Earth for Andrews.
Sit: Hunter Henry, Patriots
Drake Maye’s status for Week 9 is up in the air, making this situation unstable. Even with some chance of Maye suiting up baked into the line, Vegas still projects the Patriots to score the fewest points of any team taking the field this week. They have a 17.25 team total, a whole point behind the Bryce Young-led Panthers. He gets a matchup with a Tennessee defense that is 14th in EPA per dropback allowed and has faced the third-fewest pass attempts per game in the league. The Titans are also tough against tight ends, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position.
