Quarterback
Start: Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers played things close to the vest on offense for the first month of the season, logging a -10% pass rate over expected. Herbert averaged 22.8 pass attempts and 145 yards per game during that stretch. The Chargers upped their PROE to +2% in Weeks 6 and 7.
Herbert has 73 attempts for 586 yards over his past two games but just one touchdown. Vegas projects him to get back on track in the scoring department and has assigned LA a 24-point team total.
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
The Lions easily have the highest team total of the slate at 28.25 points. They face a Titans defense that ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed. Goff has found his stride in recent weeks, throwing for 272 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game over his past four contests. He is the QB1 in EPA per play and the QB6 in fantasy points per game since Week 3.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Sit: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott has taken a step back this year and ranks 24th in EPA per dropback a season after finishing second in the metric. He is the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Bookmakers are now throwing in the towel on the Cowboys, at least for one week. They have a 21.25 implied team total and are up against a top-10 unit in EPA per passing play allowed.
Sit: Geno Smith, Seahawks
Smith has been a volume merchant under Ryan Grubb, averaging a pedestrian 7.1 yards per attempt on a league-leading number of throws (279). He is facing a Buffalo defense that is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. More important than the matchup is the loss of DK Metcalf, who is not practicing as of Friday morning and looks unlikely to play on Sunday. Metcalf is 27th in yards per route run. He is the only Seattle receiver inside the top 50.
Running Back
Start: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Hunt stepped into the Kansas City lineup three games ago and has seen 65 percent of the team’s carries. He is averaging 23 touches for 95 yards and one touchdown per game. The Chiefs have a negative pass rate over expected since Hunt’s first start and are 9.5-point favorites over the Raiders this week.
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
Brown completed the takeover of the Cincinnati backfield last week by out-carrying Zack Moss 15-6. He has seen 55 percent of the Bengals’ carries over the past four weeks and is averaging 15.3 touches per game during that stretch. Brown is also grading out well in the efficiency metrics. He ranks third in yards after contact per carry and fifth in explosive run rate.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Bryce Young is back in the lineup this week as Andy Dalton tends to a sprained thumb. That takes every Panthers player off the menu for fantasy purposes. Carolina has averaged 13.8 points per game in 18 career starts. The Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs this week and face a Denver defense that ranks 10th in EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Sit: Alvin Kamara, Saints
The Spencer Rattler offense is one from which no fantasy value can escape. Rattler is last in the NFL in EPA per play (min. 100 dropbacks). The Saints have three offensive touchdowns—one of which came from a Jake Haener pass attempt in garbage time—in two Rattler starts. They are seven-point underdogs to the Chargers this week. The Bolts have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year.
Wide Receiver
Start: Troy Franklin, Broncos
Franklin, a fourth-round rookie, has seen his role skyrocket over the past two weeks. He ran a route on 26 percent of the Broncos routes from Week 2 to Week 5 after not playing in Denver’s opener. Franklin has since run a route on 68 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks. He earned a 25 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share in Week 7. Despite being a run-funnel, the Panthers have given up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Start: Jalen McMillan, Bucs
The runway is clear for McMillan’s breakout game with Chris Godwin done for the year and Mike Evans nursing a multi-week hamstring injury. Those two players have accounted for 46 percent of the Bucs’ targets and 60 percent of their air yards. McMillan may also get to move into the slot after spending most of his time in Tampa Bay on the outside. Godwin dominated the Bucs’ targets as their primary slot receiver and McMillan was primarily a slot receiver in college. He ran over 90 percent of his routes from the slot in his final two seasons as a Husky.
Sit: Diontae Johnson, Panthers
On top of the obvious downgrade in quarterback efficiency, the Panthers’ unplanned QB change could also result in a smaller share of the available targets for Johnson. He has a 28 percent target share and a 47 percent air yards share in four Andy Dalton starts. Those numbers were at 23 percent and 24 percent in Young’s two starts. Johnson posted six catches for 34 yards in those games.
Update: Diontae Johnson was surprisingly ruled out on Friday, so you definitely shouldn’t play him.
Sit: Josh Downs, Colts
Every Colts receiver is a “Sit” with Anthony Richardson under center. Downs is averaging 9.6 PPR points in the three Richardson starts he has been active for.
That already-low number is almost entirely carried by an 8/82/1 performance in which Richardson left with an injury after just four pass attempts. Both Downs and Pittman are in the WR4 ranks until the Colts make a quarterback change or Richardson improves drastically.
Tight End
Start: Cade Otton, Bucs
With Evans going down early in Week 7, the Bucs leaned on Otton to the tune of 10 targets. He caught eight of them for 100 yards, his first game hitting the century mark since college. Otton earned 22 percent of the Bucs’ targets and air yards versus Baltimore. Tampa Bay is ninth in the NFL in pass attempts and third in completions. Otton, now playing a much larger role in that passing attack, is pushing for a TE1 ranking this week.
Start: David Njoku, Browns
Njoku looked as close to full strength as we’ve seen all season in Week 7. He ran a route on 84 perent of the Browns’ dropbacks and earned a 28 percent target share. Njoku turned his 14 targets into 10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets a massive quarterback upgrade in Jameis Winston for Week 8.
Sit: Tucker Kraft, Packers
There are worse options than Kraft as far as tight ends go, but he is running unsustainably hot on both yards and touchdowns given his modest role. Kraft is 14th in targets and 30th in air yards among tight ends but is 10th in receiving yards. He has one end zone target and four receiving touchdowns, second-most at his position. Kraft has been putting up top-five fantasy numbers but looks more like a low-end TE1 based on his usage metrics.
Sit: Zach Ertz, Commanders
Jayden Daniels has not practiced this week and looks unlikely to play. That leaves Marcus Mariota in the starter’s role versus a Chicago defense that leads the NFL in dropback EPA allowed. They are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have conceded two TE1 games this year. Ertz’s involvement in the Washington offense is good, but fantasy managers should wait until Daniels returns to treat him as a starting option.
