Quarterback
Start: Sam Darnold, Vikings
Darnold admittedly got exposed by the Jets before the bye. Even with a blemish on his resume, Darnold is still one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. He is seventh in adjusted yards per attempt, 13th in EPA per play, and fifth in completion percent over expected. Darnold and the Vikings get a Lions defense that just lost Aidan Hutchinson—the NFL’s leader in sacks, pressures, and PFF pass rushing grades—this week. The total of their game sits at 50.5, the third-highest of the week.
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Start: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
We’re likely in line for another run-heavy approach from the field goal-favored Falcons, but their team total of 27 points suggests there’s enough room for everyone to get home from a fantasy perspective. Cousins looked frighteningly bad in Week 1, his first game off the torn Achilles he suffered last year, and has played impressively ever since. He is sixth in both EPA per play and PFF passing grade over the past five weeks.
Sit: Jared Goff, Lions
The Minnesota matchup is a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. They lead the NFL in EPA per dropback and adjusted yards per attempt allowed. Even the uptick in passing volume they have faced has only boosted their fantasy points allowed to 23rd-highest. Goff has played well this year, but this is an obvious week to put him on the bench.
Sit: Anthony Richardson, Colts
I told you to sit Richardson last week and he scored *checks notes* zero points. Richardson, of course, was a surprise inactive on Sunday morning. He appears to be back for real this week, but his fantasy prospects remain bleak. He has one top-20 fantasy performance this year, largely because the Colts haven’t utilized his supernatural athleticism on the ground. Richardson has one game with more than 40 rushing yards. The team has also refused to let him pass, logging a -10% pass rate over expected in his four starts. This is not a recipe for QB1 production.
Running Back
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
The backfield flippening finally happened in Week 6. Brown saw just over half of the snaps and his carry share topped 50 percent for the third week in a row. Most importantly, he ran a route on 54 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks and saw a 14 percent target share. Both marks were season highs. Brown doesn’t have the Cincinnati backfield to himself, but he has cemented himself as the team’s preferred option over Zack Moss.
Start: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
I’m still among the fools who believe Bijan Robinson can separate from Allgeier as Atlanta’s three-down back, but that hasn’t been the case recently and Allgeier won’t need a high share of the carries this week. The Falcons are 11th in run rate while leading and face a defense that has been targeted with a -2% pass rate over expected this year. The Seahawks have faced the fourth-most running back carries in total. Allgeier, who has seen 45 percent of Atlanta’s carries over the past three weeks, should get the ball enough to fill in as a FLEX play.
Sit: James Conner, Cardinals
Conner is putting together another solid season on the ground but has been used sparingly in the passing game. He is averaging two receptions for 14.7 yards per game through the air and has run a route on less than half of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks. The two-down role has meant he goes from an RB1 in PPR points per game in wins to a low-end RB2 in losses.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point dogs to a Chargers team that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.
Sit: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
Mostert has only appeared in two games this year and has earned just 37 percent of the team’s carries in those contests. Like De’Von Achane, who is returning from a concussion this week, Mostert’s big-play potential has been sapped but the Dolphins’ lack of NFL-caliber quarterback play, among other variables. Both he and Achane are averaging fewer than four yards per carry. Achane is Mike McDaniels’ weapon on passing downs, making Mostert an early-down grinder on a dysfunctional offense.
Wide Receiver
Start: Demario Douglas, Patriots
Pop Douglas has emerged as the Patriots’ clear No. 1 receiver. Following two quiet weeks to start the year, Douglas has earned 26 percent of New England’s targets with a 28 percent air yards share. He is averaging 13.1 PPR points over that stretch. With Drake Maye on the sticks, the outlook of the entire passing game is on the rise. That will be amplified by a matchup with a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Start: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Addison returned to the Vikings’ lineup two games ago and immediately proved his worth as an explosive play specialist by scoring once on the ground and once through the air. He didn’t post big fantasy numbers in Week 5, but his role grew substantially. He went from a 12 percent target share in Week 4 to a 29 percent target share in Week 5. His target total increased from three to eight. Addison has a boom/bust profile, but a high-total matchup with a weakened Detroit defense lends itself to the boom outcomes.
Sit: Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kirk remains in the WR3 ranks this week, but the return of Evan Engram took any WR2 hopes off the table. Engram played last week for the first time since Jacksonville’s opener. He was targeted 10 times compared to six looks for Kirk. The veteran slot receiver has played in two games with Engram in 2024. He averaged .18 targets per route and five total targets in those contests. His numbers jumped to 7.3 targets at .22 TPRR without Engram. Kirk can still get there on reduced volume, but don’t expect elite receiving totals as long as Trevor Lawrence has Engram to lean on.
Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts
With Richardson expected to play this week, Pittman’s stock is trending sharply in the wrong direction. Pittman makes his money on layup targets. Richardson ranks 27th in adjusted completion rate on intermediate throws and 34th on short attempts. Pittman is also facing increased target competition from Josh Downs, who leads the Colts in targets since returning to the lineup in Week 3. The squeeze for targets and the lack of high-quality looks are enough to remove Pittman from the WR3 ranks.
Tight End
Start: Hunter Henry, Patriots
Henry has a surprisingly high aDOT for a tight end. He is targeted, on average, nine yards downfield and is third among tight ends in air yards share. That’s not ideal with a quarterback who can’t generate explosive plays. It’s a far better role when your team switches to their rookie who isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield. Jacoby Brissett had an explosive play rate of 7.6 percent before being benched. Maye’s explosive play rate was 11.1 percent in his first start.
Start: Zach Ertz, Commanders
The Commanders have the highest implied team total of Week 7 by a wide margin. Vegas is projecting them for 29.75 points. The next-closest team is 2.75 points behind the Commanders. Ertz is top-10 in target share and top-five in air yards share among tight end.
Evan Engram led all TEs in opportunity in his first game back from hammy pull. pic.twitter.com/3nBpQgq5Hp
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 16, 2024
There isn’t much more to say. Ertz gets targets. His team scores points. That typically leads to fantasy points.
Sit: Sam LaPorta, Lions
LaPorta is coming off his best fantasy game of the year…with one catch. It went for 52 yards and a touchdown. He has been targeted more than four times once and has a high-water mark of five targets. He has a 10 percent target share and has been targeted on 11 percent of his routes. Those are the underlying metrics of a fringe NFL starter, not a viable fantasy option.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
Much like every Steelers pass-catcher, Freiermuth’s quiet box scores are not entirely his fault, but they are the reality of the situation. He has peaked at 57 yards in a game and has only topped 40 yards once. The Steelers are 30th in pass attempts per game and 27th in pass rate over expected. A potential switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback may increase the passing volume, but Wilson has rarely supported a fantasy-relevant tight end. His tight ends have combined for one 15-point game over his past four seasons as a starter.
