Quarterback
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
The Rams face the Steelers at home and have the seventh-highest implied team total of the week. Stafford is third in the NFL in passing yards but 18th in touchdowns. Kyren Williams’ usage and success in the red zone is a big reason for this. Williams has 22 red zone attempts and six red zone rushing touchdowns. He is sidelined this week as is backup Ronnie Rivers. That could shift LA toward passing more in the red zone until Williams returns.
Start: Jordan Love, Packers
Love has fallen apart over the past three weeks, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions. He has saved two of those games—from a fantasy perspective—with rushing touchdowns. The good news is that he is in the ultimate get-right spot. He faces the Broncos at home and has a 23.25 implied team total. The Broncos have allowed 250 passing yards and/or two passing touchdowns in every game but one this year. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns and only two teams have allowed more yards.
Sit: Jared Goff, Lions
Goff and the Lions are road dogs with a 20 implied team total. They face a Baltimore defense that ranks fourth in EPA per dropback allowed. Baltimore’s defense is top-10 in pressure and sack rate. Even when opposing quarterbacks get their passes off, they average just 5.4 yards per attempt. Goff is still a viable starting option, but he fell into the middle of the QB2 range in my rankings this week.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
As it turns out, losing Justin Jefferson appears to be a big hit to Cousins’ production. Versus the second-worst defense by EPA per pass allowed, Cousins threw for 181 yards and a single touchdown in Week 6. He ranked 20th in EPA per play. This week, Cousins gets a 49ers defense that ranks second in EPA per dropback allowed.
Running Back
Start: Brian Robinson, Commanders
The Commanders are 2.5-point favorites over a disastrous Giants team. New York is allowing the second-most EPA per rush attempt. No team has faced more rush attempts from running backs than the Giants and they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs.
Start: Alexander Mattison, Vikings
Mattison is top-15 in the NFL in rush attempts and fourth targets among running backs. Sans Jefferson in Week 6, Mattison set season-highs in target share (23 percent) and targets per route run (.38). He also saw 82 percent of the Vikings’ carries and was on the field for 78 percent of their snaps. It’s a bad spot for Mattison, but it’s hard to bench a workhorse running back on a week with six teams on bye.
Sit: Najee Harris, Steelers
Harris hasn’t played in the two-minute drill since Week 1 and hasn’t run a route on half of his team’s dropbacks once this year. He is averaging .11 targets per route run. Jaylen Warren’s targets per route run sits at .31. As three-point dogs to the Rams, the two-down back in Pittsburgh’s offense is a poor bet for fantasy points this week.
Sit: Rachaad White, Bucs
The Bucs benched backup running back Sean Tucker three weeks ago. Before that, White had seen 66 percent of his team’s carries. Since Ke’Shawn Vaughn took over, White’s carry share has dropped by eight percent and his target share has also fallen slightly. The Bucs are 2.5-point dogs to an Atlanta defense that is first in the NFL in rush EPA allowed.
Wide Receiver
Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Sutton’s 22 percent target share and 30 percent air yards share are both solid, but his end zone usage puts him over the top. He has seen 42 percent of the Broncos’ end zone targets. Only two players have seen more end zone targets than Sutton.
Start: Josh Palmer, Chargers
In two games without Mike Williams, Palmer has earned 28 percent of the Chargers’ targets and 42 percent of their air yards. He has run a route on 98 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks over his past two games. In a potential shootout with the Chiefs, Palmer should see plenty of looks.
Sit: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants
Robinson is seeing a healthy amount of targets, but none of his looks are likely to produce much fantasy value. His aDOT of 3.4 on the season isn’t much higher than some running backs and he has yet to see an end zone target. With the Giants rarely making it within four yards of the goal line, it might be a while before Robinson sees that first end zone look.
Sit: Jameson Williams, Lions
Williams’ second game of the season featured a long touchdown, but he was buried on the depth chart for routes and targets. He ran a route on 19 percent of Jared Goff’s dropbacks and earned an eight percent target share. We can’t rely on him breaking a massive play for a touchdown every week and need him to run more routes before he comes off the fantasy bench.
Tight Ends
Start: Michael Mayer, Raiders
Mayer is a deep cut at tight end, but desperate teams should look to him off the waiver wire as a high-end TE2. His route rate crossed 50 percent last week, reaching 67 percent. He earned a target on 27 percent of his routes and picked up six targets. Mayer was a strong receiver and blocker in college. If his coaching staff finally has faith in him as a full-time player, he’s worth a flyer versus the Bears.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Falcons
Smith is 11th in targets and 10th in air yards among tight ends. He has run a route on two-thirds of the Falcons’ dropbacks and has been targeted on 23 percent of his routes since Week 2. He has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in each of his past three games.
Sit: Zach Ertz, Cardinals
After appearing in previous iterations of this article as a start, Ertz’s fall from grace has finally come. In Week 6, he ran a route on 52 percent of Josh Dobbs’ dropbacks and earned an 11 percent target share. Before Week 6, Ertz had run a route on 80 percent of his team’s passing plays and had a 22 percent target share. His dip in usage was directly correlated to Trey McBride becoming more involved in the offense. Now playing in a committee, Ertz is buried in the TE2 ranks.
Sit: Cole Kmet, Bears
Kmet’s usage is shockingly similar to Jonnu Smith’s this year. He has just as many targets (32) and 35 fewer air yards (203). In a normal week, Kmet would be a fine start. This is no normal week. The Bears are starting UDFA rookie Tyson Bagent under center. Bagent was a DII quarterback who made the Bears’ roster as their third-string quarterback before jumping Nathan Peterman on the depth chart. In Week 6, Bagent averaged -.679 EPA per dropback. That ranked last in the league.
