Quarterback
Start: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
We all saw what Daniels did on Monday. Most people are starting him without needing someone on the internet to tell them to do so. I just can’t stress enough that there are roughly four quarterbacks on this planet who project for more fantasy points than him. Daniels leads the NFL in scrambles (17) and yards on scrambles (138). As a passer, the rookie ranks top five in EPA per play and yards per attempt. RotoPat has him at QB5 in his weekly ranks and I could push him one or two spots higher.
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Start: Caleb Williams, Bears
Williams started to find his groove in Week 3, throwing for 363 yards and two scores versus the Colts, albeit with another pair of interceptions. He easily set a season-high in yards per attempt (7.0) and also hit a high-water mark in PFF passing grade (57.7). Williams didn’t iron out all of his flaws, but he proved capable of pushing the ball down the field and picking up chunk gains. He gets an LA defense this week that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Sit: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Things don’t set up as well for Stafford on the other side of the Chicago game. The Rams lost Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp before their Week 3 matchup with the 49ers. They went from a -2% pass rate over expected in their first two games to a -10% in Week 3.
Stafford threw for 221 yards and a lone score on 25 attempts. The Bears rank third in EPA per dropback allowed and Vegas agrees on the difficulty of this matchup. LA’s team total of 18.75 points is the same as Miami, who are already onto their third quarterback of the year.
Sit: Anthony Richardson, Colts
Richardson is 26th in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (5.1) despite leading the league with five passes of over 40 yards. He is 25th in total pass attempts because head coach Shane Steichen has fallen back on the Colts’ ground game most weeks. Indy has a pass rate over expected of -10%. This hasn’t trickled down to elite rushing volume for Richardson, who is averaging six carries per game, the same number as Bo Nix. Facing a Steelers team that also wants to play a run-heavy, bar fight style of football, don’t expect either side to give us many fantasy points.
Running Back
Start: Zack Moss, Bengals
The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites versus the Panthers. Carolina’s defense is 25th in EPA per rush attempt and has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Moss has dominated the Cincinnati backfield touches through three weeks. He has a 64 percent carry share and is also the Bengals’ top option on passing downs, running a route on 59 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks. In a great spot, Cincinnati’s RB1 projects as a fantasy RB2.
Start: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Robinson ranks seventh in yards after contact per carry and ninth in rush yards over expected per attempt. He’s also averaging a respectable 1.2 yards per route run and PFF has him graded as their No. 8 pass-blocking running back. The Commanders have already ruled out Austin Ekeler for their Week 4 shootout with the Cardinals. Robinson should sit at the top of the RB2 ranks with the backfield all to himself.
Sit: Cam Akers, Texans
We got away with one by putting Akers on the “Start” list last week. He saved his fantasy day with a receiving touchdown but did not play a full-time role. He was on the field for one more snap than Dare Ogunbowale and ran a route on a quarter of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. This came in the context of a blowout loss to the Vikings, but it also means Akers has a narrow path to fantasy points. That is on the ground, where he ranks outside the top 30 backs in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per carry. I’m avoiding this backfield until Joe Mixon returns.
Sit: Javonte Williams, Broncos
Williams ranks second-to-last in rush yards over expected per carry. PFF has him with their lowest rushing grade among 54 qualified running backs. Sean Payton gave practice squad back Tyler Badie a shot to close things out in Week 3 and he ran for 70 yards on nine attempts. The Broncos promptly signed Badie to their active roster in the following days. Williams has efficiency concerns and now volume questions loom.
Wide Receiver
Start: Tee Higgins, Bengals
The Bengals didn’t rush Higgins back and were able to deploy him in a full-time role the moment he returned to action. Higgins ran a route on 95 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 3. He earned six targets, three of which accounted for 67 percent of the team’s end zone targets. Cincinnati lost to Commanders but dropped 33 points in a shootout and Vegas buys their offense being back to form. They have a 25.75 team total in a game with the second-highest total of the week.
Start: Chris Olave, Saints
We’re going back to the well on Olave. He ranks ninth in yards per route run and holds PFF’s top receiving grade through three weeks. Despite hitting a speed bump in Week 3, the Saints still rank third in the NFL in EPA per passing play and are second in total points. Olave remains a top-15 fantasy option for Week 4.
Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts
Pittman makes his way onto the “Sit” list for the second straight week. Anthony Richardson has to show some signs of life as a passer before Pittman can get back in our fantasy lineups. Richardson ranks 28th in completion rate on intermediate throws and last on short throws. Pittman, in turn, has seen 84.2 percent of his targets on short and intermediate attempts. A game with a 40-point total does not look like the get-right spot for Pittman.
Sit: Quentin Johnston, Chargers
To no one’s surprise, the Chargers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.
Pass Rate Over Expectation through Week 3
— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) September 24, 2024
- The top 8 including SEA, HST, LV, DEN, and TEN is much different than last season
- Saints did not pass much even in a close game
- Ravens went full ground attack vs. the weak DAL run D
- Andy Dalton's Panthers rising in pass rate pic.twitter.com/WVwlGvXE9Q
They are either starting an injured Justin Herbert or backup Taylor Heinicke versus Kansas City. No matter who takes the first snap at quarterback, it’s safe to assume they will descend further into the depths of establishing it this week. The Chargers are also likely to get Joshua Palmer back after a one-game absence. With sportsbooks projecting the Chargers for the third-fewest points, Johnston’s role as the touchdown scorer of this team looks likely to be nullified versus Kansas City.
Tight End
Start: Zach Ertz, Commanders
Ertz has the ninth-highest route share among tight ends and his 19 percent target share ranks 11th at the position. He has a surprisingly respectable aDOT of 8.4, giving him a top-five cut of his team’s air yards. Ertz’s 1.56 yards per route run is his highest mark since 2019. This is the best football Ertz has played in a long time and his team is staring down the barrel of one of the few high-scoring games on the Week 4 slate.
Start: Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Strange took over the starting job in Jacksonville two weeks ago after Evan Engram suffered a hamstring injury in pre-game warmups. He ran a route on 72 percent of the Jags’ dropbacks in Week 2. That number fell last week, but the Jags gave their starters some time off in the fourth quarter after the Bills had thoroughly buried them. He was on the field for 72 percent of their passing plays through three quarters. Strange has turned a 17 percent target share into five grabs for 77 yards and a score. With Engram likely to miss Week 4 as well, Strange remains a high-upside TE2.
Sit: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Likely has turned back into a pumpkin following his Week 1 explosion. He has run a route on 52 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks over the past two weeks and has a nine percent target share. It won’t surprise me to see his role increase at some point, but predicting when that will happen is a fool’s errand and the baseline volume isn’t enough to bank on.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
There’s almost nothing wrong with Freiermuth’s role. He is top-10 in target and route share among tight ends. The problem that makes all of his strong market share numbers irrelevant is the same problem that plagued players like Drake London and Kyle Pitts last year. The Steelers, now under OC Arthur Smith, don’t throw the football. Their -9% pass rate over expected is bottom-five in the NFL. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total pass attempts and 29th in neutral situation pace.
