Quarterback
Start: Derek Carr, Saints
Carr will keep getting away with it until morale improves.
Saints rates and ranks
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 16, 2024
Play action
2023: 13% (32nd)
2024: 51% (1st)
Designed rollouts
2023: 4% (25th)
2024: 16% (1st)
Motion at the snap
2023: 14% (26th)
2024: 41% (5th)
Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is pressing all of the easy buttons on offense and it’s working wonders for his veteran quarterback. Carr ranks first in EPA per dropback and has the Saints with the fourth-most points through two weeks in NFL history. The total in his matchup with the Eagles has ballooned from 45 at open to 49.5 and the spread has flipped from +3 to -3 in favor of the Saints.
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Start: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Ravens’ defense currently ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. Kansas City comprises half of their opponents, so we should expect them to improve as the season moves on. However, they also gave up 276 yards and a score to Gardner Minshew. Most importantly, they have faced the second-highest pass rate over expected this year. The Cowboys, in turn, have the 12th-highest pass rate over expected through two weeks. Teams have targeted Baltimore through the air and the Cowboys are down to play that type of football game. Their matchup with the Ravens has a 48-point total, the third-highest of the week. This is the get-right spot for Prescott.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
The Jaguars don’t want to score points. They rank 21st in EPA per rush attempt on first and second down, losing .15 points per carry, and ninth in EPA per dropback on early downs. Lawrence is giving them .19 points per dropback on first and second down. Despite this, the Jags are the most run-heavy team in neutral situations.
https://t.co/1WUxJvfBe8 pic.twitter.com/jkcrlgICbo
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 16, 2024
Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor are not calling plays with the scoreboard in mind. That relegates Lawrence to the middle of the QB2 ranks until something changes.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Speaking of teams that aren’t concerned with scoring points: the Falcons.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seemingly used his ground game to hide Kirk Cousins in Week 1. Cousins didn’t pass the eye test, giving Robinson a reason to take the air out of the ball. Cousins played much better in Week 2 and the Falcons still logged a PROE of negative nine percent. Without any rushing production to speak of, Cousins needs loads of passing volume to hit his fantasy ceiling. He hasn’t gotten close to that yet.
Running Back
Start: Cam Akers, Texans
Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both look unlikely to play this week. Neither back has practiced as of Friday morning. Akers, who is the next man up if both backs are ruled out, looked like a great fit in Bobby Slowik’s scheme during the preseason. He earned PFF’s No. 9 rushing grade and No. 2 overall grade among running backs in the exhibition games. If Akers is seeing all of the work on a Houston offense that has a 24.25 team total this week, he is a clear RB2.
Start: Carson Steele, Chiefs
The Chiefs lost Isiah Pacheco for an extended period of time due to a fractured fibula. They are also without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was placed on the NFI list before the start of the season. That leaves them with Steele and Samaje Perine. Steele was billed as a fullback at times during the offseason but saw most of his preseason reps at running back. He ran for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 11 attempts. Steele led all backs with 7.4 yards after contact per carry. Steele is a swing for the fences play this week, but that’s enough to get him on the RB2/3 border.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Andy Dalton’s return to the lineup is going to help all Panthers players put up better numbers, but the offense wasn’t Hubbard’s only issue. He is splitting work with Miles Sanders far more evenly than we expected heading into the season. Hubbard has 16 carries to Sanders’ 12 so far. Sanders has also held him to a targets standstill at four a piece. His 1A usage is not enough to get by on, even with Dalton improving the overall outlook of the offense.
Sit: D’Andre Swift, Bears
Good matchup or not, Swift is a fade until he shows us some efficiency. He currently ranks last in the NFL in Next Gen’s success rate. Only 18 percent of his carries have gained more yards than expected. He is averaging -2.4 yards over expected per attempt. Now his team is an underdog on the road. It’s not clear that Swift can even take advantage of a juicy matchup at this point in his career.
Wide Receiver
Start: Diontae Johnson, Panthers
For Diontae, Dalton taking over should be enough to get him back on the fantasy radar. Johnson leads the Panthers in target share and target rate, both of which sit at 23 percent. He also saw over half of the team’s air yards in Week 2. Dalton averaged an underwhelming 6.2 yards per attempt in two starts last year. He fared better with the Saints in 2022, averaging 7.6 YPA. Even if we get only the Panthers number from Darnold, that would be a notable improvement over Young’s 4.4 YPA through two games.
Start: Chris Olave, Saints
We’re getting a big game from Olave one of these days. He earned a 46 percent target share and 50 percent of the Saints’ air yards in Week 2. Olave was also the first read on a team-high five throws from Derek Carr. PFF gave him their top receiving grade last week. That all resulted in just 81 yards despite the Saints topping 40 points again. Olave can’t keep being good at football on an incredible offense without scoring fantasy points. Something has to give, and I’m betting on that coming in the form of an explosive Week 3 for Olave.
Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts
Pittman is still getting plenty of looks as a portion of the Colts’ passing attack, but the targets he earns are not the passes Anthony Richardson can hit the mark on consistently. Of Pittman’s 14 targets, six have come between zero and nine yards downfield. Another six have come from 10 to 19 yards down range. He has caught one pass at each depth. Richardson is PFF’s 30th-ranked passer on intermediate throws and is 24th in passing grade on short throws. The lack of a connection between the two has Pittman tumbling into the WR3 ranks.
Sit: Jakobi Meyers, Raiders
It’s Brock Bowers’ world and we’re all just living in it. Bowers is third among tight ends in target share and fourth in air yards share. The rookie tight end stepping into a high-usage role out of the gate has all but ended Meyers’ run as a fantasy WR3. Meyers has a 12 percent target share and has been targeted on 11 percent of his routes. There isn’t much value to be had in Gardner Minshew’s No. 3 pass-catcher.
Tight End
Start: Mark Andrews, Ravens
The Chiefs poured defensive resources into stopping Andrews in Week 1 and it worked. He was targeted on five percent of his routes and earned a dismal six percent target share. Those numbers jumped to 19 percent and 17 percent in Week 2. The Ravens made him a larger part of the game plan versus Las Vegas with a 19 percent first-read target share compared to just 10 percent against Kansas City. Andrews may not be the top-flight tight end he was in previous seasons, but last week showed he can still earn low-end TE1 volume.
Start: Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Strange is a desperation play that went under the radar on most waiver wires. He is only rostered on two percent of Yahoo leagues despite finishing Week 2 as the PPR TE9. He took over for Evan Engram after Engram suffered a hamstring injury in warmups. Strange ran a route on 75 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks. He earned a 25 percent target share and saw 32 percent of the team’s air yards. He is nothing more than a TE2 for his second start of the year, but Strange is one of the best adds at tight end right now.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
In Week 1, Kincaid was only targeted once and earned five air yards on that target. He drastically improved his target share in Week 2 with four looks in the passing game. Surely he saw more air yards as well…right? Nope. He had an aDOT of negative two. Kincaid isn’t seeing the ball often and when he does it’s on empty calorie looks.
Sit: Dallas Goedert, Eagles
The Eagles just aren’t that interested in using Goedert, even with A.J. Brown sidelined. Last year, Goedert saw 21 percent of Philly’s first-read targets and was targeted on 19 percent of his routes. He has a first-read target share of 16 percent and a target rate of 12 percent this season. Devonta Smith looks like he can step seamlessly into a WR1 role until Brown returns, leaving Goedert in the TE2 ranks.
