It’s Week 18 of the NFL season and that means most fantasy football leagues have concluded. However, if you’re still playing, I’m here with my final week of rankings for you.
As is the case every year, the final week of the NFL season is a confusing mess of varying motivations. Teams who have playoff seeds locked up will tend to rest players, and teams who are finally eliminated may decide to rest players who have been battling through injuries. The safest option when it comes to making fantasy decisions is to side with teams and players who are clearly motivated to win in Week 18, and my rankings below will reflect that. I also think you need to keep updated on the news all week regarding who is sitting or only playing parts of a game. Our Rotoworld NFL Player News page will have all of that, so keep it open and refreshed.
And, lastly, thanks for checking out this article every week. I put a lot of time and effort into this column to try and give you the best and most useful information for you to make your start/sit decisions, so you checking this out every week means a lot. Best of luck this weekend and happy new year.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 17: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 95-75 (55.9%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 18?
WEEK 18 | |||
Rank | Tier One DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Bucs’ defense has matchup and motivation on their side, so they vaulted up the rankings for me. The Bucs need to win to win the NFC South and make the playoffs, so we know they’ll be going all out. They’ve averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game over the last two months and are playing a Saints offense that is now likely the worst in football with all their injuries. I’m assuming that Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara will both be out in Week 18 because that makes the most sense, but I guess that’s a situation to check in on as the week goes on.
Baltimore also needs a win to win the AFC North and Vegas expects them to do everything they can to do so since the Ravens are currently 18-point favorites at home. That should give you a clear indication of motivation against a Browns offense that looked lifeless against the Dolphins on Sunday. I assume Cedric Tillman and David Njoku will be out again, but even if they’re not, if Dorian Thompson-Robinson is still at quarterback then we can play the Ravens with tons of confidence.
The Broncos need to win to get into the playoffs, so they are another team we know we are getting full motivation from, and that’s the most important factor in Week 18. On top of that, the Chiefs have the number one seed locked up and are likely going to rest starters, so we have a Broncos defense that has averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game since Week 10 going up against a handful of starters and back-ups. You should feel solid about that.
Rank | Tier Two DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
The Packers are playing for seeding on Sunday, potentially moving up to the sixth seed. Considering the 7th seed in the NFC will play the Eagles while the 6th seed will play the Rams, the Packers have some clear motivation to win this game and avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. However, they also need the Commanders to lose to have a chance to move up, so if Washington has a huge halftime lead over Dallas then you might see the Packers pull starters for the second half. All of that is why Green Bay is not in tier one; this is a good defense against a Bears offense that looks like an abject disaster of late.
I know the Eagles are resting starters this weekend, but you also know that Nick Sirianni really doesn’t want to give a win to his division rivals, so whoever is on the field for Philadelphia is going to be playing hard. The Giants dismantled the Colts on Sunday, but a great Drew Lock game is usually followed by a poor one. I still don’t think this offense is good, and I think the Eagles’ mix of starters and back-ups should put together a safe floor performance here.
Miami needs to win to have a shot at the playoffs, so you know you’re going to get their best effort. We can’t say that about a Jets team that looked like it gave up before last week even started. We’ll likely see Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams start the game because Rodgers wants to throw his 500th touchdown pass and Adams wants to catch it; however, as soon as that happens, I imagine both of those guys would leave the game. The Jets also continue to lose offensive linemen week after week, and the Bills were in Rodgers’ face all game on Sunday. Considering the Dolphins’ pass rush has been better than Buffalo’s for much of the season, we could see that again this weekend.
Rank | Tier Three DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
The Bills have the second seed locked up and have nothing to play for, but they also have a few key defenders who have missed time with injury (Matt Milano, Rasul Douglas, DeWayne Carter, Rasul Douglas), and Sean McDermott made some comments about helping players shake the rust before the postseason. As a result, it’s not entirely clear how many starters will sit or for how long they’ll sit, so I’m going to keep Buffalo inside the top 10 for now in a really good matchup.
The Falcons are another team that needs to win to have a shot at the playoffs, so we know they’re giving their best effort. The Panthers offense was showing progress for a while, but losing Chuba Hubbard was a big blow and Bryce Young has simply been unable to shoulder the burden of carrying the offense without a competent running game. That makes the Falcons a solid play this week and I might even jump them over Buffalo or into tier two.
The Commanders defense has not been good, but if CeeDee Lamb sat out last week then I have to expect that he’s going to sit out this week as well. The Dallas offense without Lamb is a mess, which makes Washington an intriguing play given that they have some motivation to win and avoid Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs. Howeber, we did just see a mediocre Colts defense get throttled by a bad Giants offense, so I am always a bit hesitant about playing mediocre or poor defenses in big fantasy matchups.
The Seahawks have nothing to play for but pride; yet, the Rams also have nothing to play for, so we could see back-ups all around here. With that in mind, I’m going to keep Seattle inside my top 10 because their defense has been playing well of late and I think Mike McDonald, a defensive coach, wants to end his first season on a high note. We’ve seen this Rams offense earlier in the year when they were without Kyren Williams or without their stud receiver duo, and it’s just a drastically different offense. If we get word for sure that those guys will sit for the Rams then I like the Seahawks this week.
The Chargers are one of the toughest teams to rank this week because their motivation depends on Saturday’s Steelers game. If the Steelers win then the Chargers game is menaingfuless and they could rest starters. If the Bengals win then the Chargers could be playing to earn the five seed and face Houston rather than Baltimore. That’s plenty motivating. The way I look at this is, if the Bengals win, the Chargers are likely a tier two defense, but if the Steelers win then the Chargers would likely fall to the bottom of their tier, so maybe sure you have a back-up DST option ready. That’s also why I have the Raiders in this tier because if the Chargers rest starters, the Raiders could be a sneaky deep-league play.
The Texans have nothing to play for, so it’s hard to get overly excited about playing them this weekend. However, the Titans are also really banged up. Tony Pollard didn’t play on Sunday and Tyjae Spears suffered a head injury. They also lost starting right tackle Jaelyn Duncan to a shoulder injury and lost outright to the Jaguars. This game could be incredibly ugly, which means that both defenses could be in play.
The Steelers and Bengals both need a win in this game. The Steelers need to win to have a chance at the AFC North, and the Bengals need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Now, the Steelers might lose motivation if the Ravens win earlier in the day, but we could see Pittsburgh play hard despite that to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs. Cincinnati also lost Chase Brown to an ankle injury in Week 18, which is a big injury when also paired with the fact that both of their starting tackles also could miss this game. I don’t love playing either defense right now, but I can see doing it in deeper formats given the motivation.
Rank | Tier Four DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
The only defenses we would normally play in this tier are the Vikings, Browns, and Chiefs. In Week 18, the Vikings and Browns have matchups we want to avoid, and the Chiefs are in a poor matchup and also will be resting some of their starters, so I don’t think you can trust any of these defenses this week. Also, we’re done trusting the Colts, like, forever.
The Rams also have nothing to play for this week, so even though the Seahawks are eliminated from playoff contention, it’s hard to know just how motivated Los Angeles will be in this one.
Rank | Tier Five DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
