Quarterback
Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
The Bucs have the second-highest team total for Week 17 with Vegas projecting them for 27.75 points. Baker gets a home date with a Carolina defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterback this year. The Panthers rank 30th in dropback EPA per play allowed. Mayfield has finished as a QB1 in four of his last five appearances and should close the fantasy season with one final top-12 outing.
Start: Bryce Young, Panthers
Since Carolina’s Week 11 bye, Young is 14th in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE. He’s averaging 19.8 points per game during that five-week stretch and gets a matchup with a dreadful Tampa Bay defense on Sunday. The Bucs rank 22nd in EPA per dropback allowed and are eighth in run defense. This has led their opponents to attack them relentlessly through the air. Tampa Bay has faced the second-highest pass rate over expected this season.
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Rodgers sprung to life two weeks ago with 289 yards and three scores before returning to his typical fantasy output last week, throwing for 256 yards and a single touchdown. That’s who he has been all year. Week 15 was Rodgers’ first game over 21 points with the Jets. He now gets a Buffalo defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Vegas is also bearish on the Jets, assigning them an 18.75-point team total. That’s lower than the Raiders, Titans, and Jaguars just to name a few teams.
Sit: Drake Maye, Patriots
Maye hasn’t posted a QB1 game or scored 20 fantasy points since Week 11. He has one such game over his past eight appearances. His floor has been reasonably high, but the fantasy championship isn’t won with floors. The ceiling, on the other hand, will be hard for Maye to reach. The Chargers are sixth in dropback EPA allowed and seventh in success rate. They have allowed just two 300-yard passing games this year.
Running Back
Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs
Irving’s back injury has made his role hard to pin down over the past month, but fantasy managers were treated to a hefty workload in Week 16. Irving out-carried Rachaad White 16-3 and gave the Bucs no reason to go back to a committee this week by running for 68 yards and a touchdown. As eight-point favorites versus a dreadful Carolina defense, this is an RB1 spot for Bucky.
Start: J.K. Dobbins, Chargers
Gus Edwards was ruled out for this game while Dobbins is listed as questionable, meaning you’ll need to double-check the Chargers’ inactives before their game kicks off. Dobbins, who got in a full practice before the end of the week, could be a sneaky add off the waiver wire if active. The Patriots rank 21st in EPA per rush attempt allowed and have faced the 12th-lowest pass rate over expected. They have given up the seventh-most points to opposing running backs.
Sit: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
The Jacksonville backfield flipped once again last week with Tank Bigsby out-carrying Etienne 12-9. Etienne didn’t have an elite pass-catching role to fall back on either. He ran 45 percent of the routes and earned a measly seven percent target share. With no job security to speak of, Etienne is well outside of the RB2 ranks for the fantasy finale.
Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Per usual, the Patriots are projected to lose, this time to the Chargers. LA has given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and Stevenson has done next to nothing in New England losses.
His 11.5 average in losses would have him outside of the top 30 running backs on the year.
Wide Receiver
Start: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Addison has cemented himself as more than just a splash play specialist over the second half of the season. In his past six games, Addison has earned a 28 percent target share and a 34 percent air yards share. Both marks narrowly trail Justin Jefferson. With a 48.5 total and a spread of just one point, the Vikings’ matchup with Green Bay has shootout written all over it, putting Addison in a phenomenal spot to close out the fantasy season.
Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
The Broncos’ matchup with Cincy should be a fun one. The 50-point total is the second-highest of the week and has risen four points since opening. Cincinnati has given up the seventh-most explosive passing plays this year and that’s where Courtland Sutton makes his money. He has the sixth-most gains of 15+ yards among wide receivers and has reeled in four touchdowns on those plays.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy, Browns
It’s over for Jeudy with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. DTR ranked 24th in CPOE and 29th in EPA per play last week. The young quarterback is nearly dead last in both metrics since 2020. Efficiency or lack thereof aside, Jeudy was only targeted three times in Week 16. The one-two punch of DTR and a dip in targets has Jeudy outside of the WR2 ranks for Week 17.
Sit: Malik Nabers, Giants
Nabers is still a top-24 fantasy option, but there will be teams that can afford to sit him this week as he prepares to take on a surging Colts defense. Indy ranks eighth in EPA per dropback allowed since Week 10. Nabers is seeing plenty of targets but hasn’t been able to put together a spike week since Daniel Jones was benched. His only two 100-yard games came in the first month of the season. Three of his four touchdowns came in September as well.
Tight End
Start: Chig Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo got away with two weeks ago, catching eight passes for 59 yards on barely half of the available routes. That wasn’t the case last week. He upped the ante with 81 yards on nine grabs. Okonkwo pushed his route rate to a season-high 83 percent, making his two-week breakout far less likely to be a rug pull.
Start: Payne Durham, Bucs
If you’re down truly horrific at tight end and the waiver wire has already been picked over, Durham is your guy. He drew the start in place of an injured Cade Otton last week and will do so again on Sunday. Durham ran a route on 88 percent of the Bucs’ dropbacks and earned a 14 percent target share. Even if you don’t need to stream him, Durham is an interesting punt play in DFS.
Sit: Tucker Kraft, Packers
The Packers have all but given up on throwing the football since their Week 10 bye. Over his past six games, Jordan Love has averaged fewer than 16 weekly completions. That’s a problem for Kraft given his pedestrian 15 percent target share over that stretch. Playing a low-wattage role in a low-volume offense, there’s almost no ceiling to be had with Kraft.
Sit: Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Strange was a popular streaming option last week. We’re all looking for the guy who did this. It could have worked out, but the young tight end coughed up the football in field goal range at the end of the half. He was benched for most of the remaining two quarters, running just three routes in the second half. Maybe he returns to his full-time role this week. Maybe he doesn’t. Do you want to risk your fantasy season on that?
