Quarterback
Start: C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud returns to action for a great matchup with the Titans’ defense. They rank 30th in EPA per dropback and 29th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed. Stroud is averaging the third-most passing yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points. Still in the playoff hunt, I don’t expect the Texans to limit him in a crucial matchup.
Start: Justin Fields, Bears
In his first six games of the year, Fields averaged 2.2 designed carries per game. He then missed some time with an injury. Since returning, he is up to 5.6 designed attempts per week. That has increased his rushing output by roughly 30 yards and his touchdown production on the ground has doubled. His opponent, Atlanta, has given up the seventh-most rushing yards and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing passers.
Sit: Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Murray simply hasn’t returned to form as a thrower this season. He ranks 24th in EPA per play, 30th in CPOE, and 35th in Pro Football Focus passing grade. Murray has peaked at 256 passing yards in a game this year. On top of the poor passing output, the Cardinals aren’t dialing up designed carries for him at a high clip. He is averaging just 2.3 designed carries.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tua still ranks as a QB1 for me, but now that we are in the championship round, there will be plenty of fantasy managers deciding between multiple QB1s for the most important week of the year. In both my and RotoPat’s rankings, Stroud, Fields, and Jared Goff are among the names who sit just above Tua. Miami’s matchup with the Ravens has been a nightmare for nearly every quarterback to come before Tagovailoa. The Ravens rank second in EPA per dropback allowed and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Miami’s team total of 21.75 means Vegas also expects a modest output on offense.
Running Back
Start: James Conner, Cardinals
I’m typically in the business of fading underdog running backs, but Conner’s role through the air has been on an upswing lately and his efficiency on the ground has been elite for the entire season. Per Next Gen Stats, he ranks third in rush yards over expected per attempt and ninth in success rate.
James Conner is 1st in yards after contact per carry out of 44 RBs with 100+ carries. Dawg.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 27, 2023
He is sixth in the NFL in yards per game. Over his past five games, Conner has also added a 10 percent target share to go along with his role on the ground. Despite the likely negative game script, Conner should close out the year as an RB2.
Start: Ty Chandlers, Vikings
Chandler saved his Week 16 outing with a touchdown but didn’t do much else. Still, his eight carries accounted for all but two of the team’s running back carries. The Vikings are one-point favorites at home and face a defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. Chandler remains in the RB2 ranks for Week 17.
Sit: Khalil Herbert, Bears
Herbert saw 20 carries for the first time in the 2023 season last week. However, D’Onta Foreman was sidelined for personal reasons and is back for Week 17. The Bears haven’t had the same rusher lead them in carries in two consecutive games since Week 10. Foreman is the only back on the roster with a 50 percent carry share two weeks in a row at any point this year. This backfield is simply too volatile to buy into a one-week sample from Herbert.
Sit: Joe Mixon, Bengals
Mixon’s snap share hit a season-low of 59 percent in Week 16 and his route rate of 44 percent also tied his season-low. Mixon ranks 26th in rush yards over expected per carry and PFF has him graded as their No. 38 runner this year.
Now he gets a matchup with a Kansas City defense that has faced the second-highest pass rate over expected over their past four games. The Bengals are 6.5-point underdogs with an 18.75 implied team total. That is lower than the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants and Mason Rudolph-led Steelers.
Wide Receiver
Start: DeAndre Hopkins, Titans
As is the case with most receivers, Hopkins is at his best when his quarterback isn’t under pressure. His yards per target jumps by over two and his yards per route run goes from 1.2 to 2.7 when his quarterback is kept clean. The good news for him and Will Levis (presumably) is that the Texans’ defense line is currently buried by injuries. They may be without their top four pass-rushers by total pressures and sacks. From a DFS angle, this game looks like one without enough defensive talent on either side to prevent a shootout.
Start: Davante Adams, Raiders
I never thought I would need to say, “Start Davante Adams,” but here we are. Since Aidan O’Connell took over, Adams has a 33 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share. Both numbers would lead the league over the course of the season. Adams’ alpha stat isn’t in question. If we weather the terrible quarterback variance long enough, we will get a spike week.
Sit: George Pickens, Steelers
I know. It sounds crazy to bench Pickens after his 195-yard outing versus the Bengals. However, the Bengals rank 30th in explosive pass play rate allowed while Pickens’ upcoming opponent, the Seahawks, sits at ninth in that metric. In a much more difficult matchup, I expect Pickens to look much closer to who he has been all season long.
Sit: Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
The Panthers have been a terrible matchup for receivers this year, allowing the fourth-fewest points to wideouts this year. No team has faced fewer pass attempts than Carolina and only two teams have given up fewer yards. With Trevor Lawrence banged up, I expect plenty of running and a low-scoring win for the Jags.
Tight End
Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans
If we’re firing up C.J. Stroud, you better believe we’re going back to the well on Schultz too. Nico Collins was back in the lineup last week and Schultz still managed a 21 percent target share. He caught eight passes for 61 yards. Schultz has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end seven times this year.
Start: Darren Waller, Giants
Waller’s role took a big jump in Week 16. He ran a route on 71 percent of his team’s dropbacks and earned a 19 percent target share. Now he is getting a modest upgrade at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor drawing the start. He is a fringe TE1 for those still streaming the position.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid’s usage was dreadful until Dawson Knox got hurt earlier this year. He blossomed with the veteran out of the lineup and has turned back into a pumpkin since Knox’s return. He has nine total PPR points over his past three games.
Sit: Taysom Hill, Saints
Hill’s role has all but disappeared in recent weeks. He has four touches in his past two games. Head coach Dennis Allen alluded to the negative game script New Orleans faced in Week 16 as part of the reason Hill only saw one touch. The bad news is that the Saints are expected to lose again this week. They are 2.5-point dogs to the Bucs. That line has moved four points against them since opening.
