Quarterback
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
The Jets are not a defense to be feared since firing former head coach Robert Saleh. They canned Saleh after five games despite the defense being the only part of the team doing its job. Since the firing, Gang Green ranks 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and 30th in EPA per passing play conceded. Vegas is buying Rams stock as well with a 25.25 implied team total. Stafford, who is averaging 18 points per game with four top-10 fantasy finishes since getting his receivers back, should rebound versus the Jets this week.
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Start: Michael Penix, Falcons
I don’t want to be relaying this information to you, but I’m morally obligated to tell the truth. Sportsbooks have the Falcons with a 25.25 implied team total. That’s higher than the Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings, just to name a few teams. He gets a Giants defense this week that ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed. The Giants are giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Penix is the best streaming option you will find for Week 16.
Sit: Geno Smith, Seahawks
The Seahawks have largely abandoned their pass-heavy roots coming out of their Week 10 bye. Since then, Seattle has a perfectly neutral pass rate over expected.
Geno is averaging 31 attempts for 229 yards and .8 scores since the bye, even after throwing out the Week 15 contest he left mid-game. Geno’s best finish over his past five appearances is QB20.
Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud has one 20-point fantasy performance this year and it came over two months ago. Vegas has the road-tripping Texans with an embarrassing team total of 19.5 points in a game with a 42.5 total overall. The Chiefs allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. There is no reason to roll out Stroud with a fantasy championship berth on the line.
Running Back
Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs
Irving’s role didn’t fully rebound in Week 15. He tied Rachaad White with 15 carries and two targets a piece. The good news is that he is more than efficient enough to be an RB2 on half of the backfield touches. Irving is seventh in rush yards over expected per carry (.87) and first in yards after contact per attempt (4.2). Irving averages 17.1 PPR points when he sees more than a dozen touches. All six of those contests have come in the past eight weeks.
Start: James Conner, Cardinals
This is the spot of all spots for Conner. The Panthers aren’t just the best matchup for running backs. They are the best matchup for running backs by a country mile. Carolina has faced 30 more running back rush attempts than any other team. They are 361 rushing yards clear of the No. 31 team and are tied for a league-high in rushing touchdowns allowed. With backups Emari Demercado and Trey Benson out this week, Conner is eying a 25-touch game versus the worst defense in football.
Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Stevenson has been dreadful in losses this year. His rushing output is slashed and he makes up almost no ground for fantasy managers as a pass-catcher
This is in part because Stevenson is staying in as an extra blocker on 21 percent of his passing plays, putting him on pace for a career-high. He is also running fewer routes lined up in the slot or out wide. Having lost his luster as a dual-threat back, Stevenson is not in the RB2 ranks for a potential blowout at the hands of Buffalo.
Sit: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Tracy was fully relegated to committee back duties in Week 15. He saw nine carries to Devin Singletary’s seven and only out-targeted the veteran back 4-3. Tracy earned his second-lowest snap share since Week 4. Now he and the G-Men are 8.5-point underdogs on the road this week. Tracy stans should send him to the bench until he ices Singletary once again.
Wide Receiver
Start: Khalil Shakir, Bills
We’re doing everything we can to get Bills in our lineups this week. They have a 29.5-point implied team total and face a Patriots defense that has given up the second-most expected points added per dropback. The only issue is that very few Bills have clearly defined roles. Shakir is the one receiver to trust this week. He led the team in routes in Week 15 and earned a 23 percent target share. He easily leads the roster in yards and targets per route run, ranking top-15 in both metrics league-wide.
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
It’s a get right or go home spot for MHJ backers. He gets a Carolina defense that ranks 30th in EPA per dropback allowed. The Panthers have allowed the ninth-most explosive passing plays this year and are particularly susceptible to boundary players, giving up the third-most explosive gains to receivers lined up out wide. If you made it this far with Marv in your lineup, this is his redemption arc.
Sit: Rome Odunze, Bears
Odunze is tied for a team-high in deep targets, seeing 14 such looks this year. They account for over a quarter of his targets, but the rookie has only come down with two of them for 74 scoreless yards. The biggest issue has been his quarterback. Caleb Williams ranks 40th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks in PFF passing grade on deep shots. The lack of consistent, catchable long balls has rendered Odunze a fantasy afterthought. He has finished inside the top 30 receivers once in his past six appearances.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy, Browns
Newly minted Browns starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson made three appearances last year. He threw for 121, 165, and 134 yards in those games. The best receiving performance by any of his wideouts across those contests was a 6/60/0 line from Elijah Moore.
DTR ranks 90th in EPA and 91st in CPOE out of 91 qualified quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks) since 2020. The potential for a mid-game replacement by Jameis Winston is in doubt as well with the gunslinger now dealing with a shoulder injury. The floor with Jeudy is too low to rank him as anything other than a WR3.
Tight End
Start: Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Strange earned a dozen targets on a 28 percent target share with Evan Engram out last week. Engram is done for the year meaning Strange will draw the start over the final three weeks. Strange’s Week 15 breakout shouldn’t come as a surprise. He finished as a TE1 three times in four Engram absences earlier this year and notched his fifth top-12 performance with 11 receptions for 73 yards last week.
Start: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings
Hockenson hasn’t been hitting elite marks in the box scores since returning to the lineup, but he has already cemented himself as having one of the highest floors at his position. He has finished as a TE1 in four of his past six appearances. Hockenson ranks 12th in target share (19 percent) and 11th in targets per route run (.21) despite being eased back into the lineup for a few weeks.
Sit: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
Ferguson is 14th in target share and 24th in air yards share this year. His calling card in 2023 was an elite role when the Cowboys got in scoring position. This year, Ferguson is still looking for his first end zone target and has seen a measly eight percent of the team’s red zone looks. You can do better off the waiver wire this week.
Sit: Chig Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo broke out with eight catches for 59 yards on 10 targets last week, leading some fantasy managers to pick him up as a streaming option. Don’t do that. Okonkwo ran a route on 53 percent of the Titans’ dropbacks. He barely played more passing snaps than backup tight end Josh Whyle. His 28 percent target share was nine percent higher than his previous best mark on the year and he has logged a route rate over 70 percent in just three games. Okonkwo is a part-time player who isn’t likely to double down on his solid Week 15 outing.
