What a way to start the fantasy football playoffs, nailing six of the top 10 defenses, including four of the top five defenses of the week (Kansas City, Denver, Cincinnati, and Houston) who were ranked inside my top 10 for the week. Many of the defenses we hit on were solid defenses who weren’t in the best matchups, but we trusted them to perform, like Denver, Houston, Philadelphia, and the Rams. Others were mediocre fantasy defenses in good matchups, like the Chiefs and Bengals, but the Cowboys and Saints certainly surprised me and vaulted into the top 10 as well. We also had Atlanta put up 20 against Desmond Ridder and the Raiders, which was gross to watch.
However, not all mediocre defenses in good matchups hit in Week 15 and that’s a lesson we need to continue to learn. The Baltimore Ravens seemed to be in a smash spot against the Giants, and their defense had been turning the corner a little bit over the last few weeks, so putting them inside the top five didn’t feel like a stretch. Yet, they scored just five fantasy points and finished outside the top-15 defenses on the week. It’s just another reminder that streaming mediocre defenses in good matchups is a total crapshoot. We never really know which ones will hit, and that’s why I will almost always lean on a good defenses in an average matchup.
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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 15: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 83-67 (55.3%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 16?
The Eagles were my top defense last week, and they finished with 8 points overall, helping them sneak into the top 10. I’m going back to the well with them here as my top defense, and it’s really more that there is no defense on the slate that I feel as sure about right now. Considering you’re in a “win or go home” situation in the fantasy football playoffs, I value the security that I think you get from the Eagles defense. Over the last two months, they average 8.1 fantasy points per game and rank 1st in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play, which is a PFF stat that “illustrates explosiveness by tracking the expected points added per play.” They also rank 5th in the NFL in turnover rate and rank 5th in pass rush productivity rate, and the Commanders have given up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so I’m more than comfortable using the Eagles this week.
Over the last two months, the Vikings rank 5th in EPA allowed per play, 6th in the NFL in turnover rate, and 8th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate. That has led to them being seventh in the NFL with 7.9 fantasy points per game. That’s the same type of high-end consistency that we were just talking about with the Eagles. Plus, the Seahawks have been a friendly matchup for fantasy defenses all year and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. The bigger question here is whether or not Geno Smith suits up after he couldn’t finish the game on Sunday with a knee injury. Sam Howell looked brutal as his replacement and could cement the Vikings asn an elite play this week, but even if Geno plays, I have the Vikings in tier one.
The Broncos put up 20 points this week against a solid Colts offense thanks to a pick-six and multiple turnovers. The Broncos have been one of the better defenses on the season and rank 3rd in EPA allowed per play, 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 4th in pass rush productivity rate, 5th tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 7th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months. That has led to them being second in the NFL with 10.3 fantasy points per game over that span. The Chargers have not been able to control the game on the ground without JK Dobbins which has led to more Justin Herbert passing and more sacks and turnovers with 15 sacks allowed in their last four games. Despite how good Herbert has been, I’m comfortable using the Broncos this weekend.
We’ve been stashing the Colts for a few weeks because their playoff schedule is so juicy, and now we can finally start to reap the rewards on that. Over the last two months, the Colts rank 4th tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 7th in EPA allowed per play, and rank 10th in the NFL in turnover rate. That has only led to 6.4 fantasy points per game, but that has kept them on the periphery of fantasy relevance even before they get to face a Titans offense that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points per game over the last month and the most allowed to opposing defenses on the season. There’s a chance that the Titans will turn to Mason Rudolph instead of Will Levis, which makes them a slightly worse matchup but certainly not a matchup to avoid.
Rank | Tier Two DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
Last week I had the Texans ranked 10th and the response was that I was crazy for putting them there against the Dolphins; yet, the Texans delivered with 15 fantasy points. Over the last two weeks, the Texans lead the NFL with 11.1 fantasy points per game, including five games in double digits. Over that same span, they rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in EPA allowed per play, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th tackles for a loss or no gain per game. They do rank 19th in pass rush productivity rate, which isn’t great, but Will Anderson is now back, and I like the Texans against the Chiefs even if Patrick Mahomes plays since the Chiefs have allowed 13 sacks in their last four games. However, if Mahomes does play through a high ankle sprain, I might move the Texans down slightly, but I imagine they’ll stay in this tier with Mahomes relatively immobile.
The Packers put up a strong performance against the Seahawks on Sunday night, getting you 15 fantasy points. Over the last two months, they rank tenth in the NFL with 7.1 fantasy points per game thanks to ranking 12th in the NFL in turnover rate, 12th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 14th in pass rush productivity rate. So they’re just on the fringe of being a top ten defense and now get to face a Saints offense that will could be without Alvin Kamara after he suffered a groin injury in Sunday’s loss. The Saints have withstood the injuries to Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, and Rashid Shaheed and laughed in the face of us playing defenses against the, but it’s hard not to like the Packers in a situation where the worst case scenario for them is playing against a limping Alvin Kamara with Spencer Rattler under center.
The Bills defense has not produced fantasy value over the last two weeks, but they’ve also been facing two of the better offenses in the NFL in the Rams and Lions. As a result, we have to take that into consideration when we see how the Bills have fallen down my BOD rankings. We can’t ignore the way their defensive metrics have changed, but I think it has more to do with the competition they’ve faced then diminished skill. Although, the injuries to Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, and Damar Hamlin didn’t help, so the Bills will hope they’re back for this Sunday against the Patriots. Over the last two months, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in tackles for a loss or no gain per game and 3rd in turnover rate. They also rank 7th in pass rush productivity rate since their Week 12 bye week, so it’s been nice to see them bringing a little more pressure, like they did on Sunday, and they’ll need that to continue but they should be in a good situation this weekend at home against the Patriots.
The Lions defense has had the worst luck with injuries, so it’s really hard to count on them now after losing both Alim McNeil and Carlton Davis III on Sunday on top of all the other injuries they’ve suffered. Still, over the last two months, this defense ranks 6th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate (yes, even after the Bills game), 9th in EPA allowed per play, and 13th in pass rush productivity rate. They also rank 14th in pass rush productivity rate just over the last month, so they have continued to be solid even without many of their stars. The Bears have also allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so the Lions could hang onto fantasy value for another week.
Rank | Tier Three DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
The Browns and Bengals both find themselves inside this tier, but neither one of them has been a defense we can trust of late. The Browns have averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game, while the Bengals have put up 5.7. The Browns do have more talent on defense and rank 1st in pass rush productivity rate, 1st tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 5th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months. They just don’t really force turnovers and should likely give up big plays to the Bengals. They also have to hope they get Myles Garrett back now that he’s off to see the doctor for the eye injury he suffered on Sunday. On the other hand, the Bengals rank 8th in the NFL in turnover rate over the last two months and will face a very giving offense; however, the Bengals just lost Sam Hubbard to an injury he suffered on a touchdown catch (yes, a catch), so that takes some of the teeth out of an already suspect defense. I lean towards the Bengals because of the matchup, and the fact that the Browns could pull Jameis Winston for Dorian Thompson-Robinson again.
After slow starts to the season, both the Bucs and Cowboys have seen their defenses surge of late and are both ranked inside the top 10 of my BOD rankings since I started focusing on the last two months. Over that span, the Cowboys rank 3rd in pass rush productivity rate and 7th in the NFL in turnover rate and are 4th in the NFL with 9.1 fantasy points per game, Meanwhile, the Bucs rank 8th in pass rush productivity rate, 10th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 12th in EPA allowed per play, and 13th in the NFL in turnover rate but have put up just 6.3 fantasy points per game. However, the Bucs have scored at least 8 fantasy points in three of their last four games, including against a solid Chargers offense this past Sunday, so I feel okay about rolling them out there this weekend even though the Cowboys have actually been a tough matchup for opposing defenses since Cooper Rush settled in over the last few games.
It’s hard to know what to do with the Falcons because they scored 20 fantasy points on Monday night, but that was also against a disaster of a Raiders offense. The Giants are also a bad offense, but the Ravens were only able to put up five fantasy points against them on Sunday, and the Ravens have been a better fantasy defense than the Falcons for the entire season. Over the last two months, the Falcons average just 5.4 fantasy points per game. They rank in the bottom third of basically all the metrics I like to use to evaluate defenses, and so I’d rather not trust them in the fantasy playoffs in case they dud like Baltimore did.
I don’t want to chase the Chiefs after their huge game against the Browns. Coming into this weekend, the Chiefs had averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game over the last two months. They faced the Browns in the wind and the rain, which is exactly why I had the Chiefs ranked sixth; however, I am not going to let one strong week due to elements and opponent cause me to jump back in. Houston will give up a lot of sacks, so the Chiefs could put up a few points here but not enough for me to put them in my top 10.
The Steelers are in a bad matchup this week but damn it if they aren’t a good fantasy defense. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in pass rush productivity rate, 6th in EPA allowed per play, and 7th tackles for a loss or no gain per game which has led to them being third in the NFL with 9.7 fantasy points per game. I’d probably fire them up in deeper formats even against the Ravens because I trust this defense, but TJ Watt suffered an ankle injury on Sunday, so we need to see how healthy he’ll be on Sunday before I can commit to playing them.
The Colts offense is so hard to figure out. For weeks, they were a bad fantasy matchup with Anthony Richardson under center because of how they used his legs. However, they just allowed a massive game to the Broncos, and over the last month, the Colts give up the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. I tried to soften that a bit for my rankings, keeping in mind what defenses had done against Richardson before; however, a lot of those recent matchups were against mediocre defenses like the Patriots and Jets. The banged-up Lions defense scored seven fantasy points against him in Week 11 and so maybe the Titans are able to get there as well. Over the last six weeks, they rank 9th in turnover rate, and the Colts have turned the ball over seven times in their last three games. The Colts don’t allow sacks, so this feels like a risky play.
Rank | Tier Four DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
I know the Giants, Jaguars, and Raiders all have elite matchups this week, but I can’t trust any of these defenses in the fantasy football semi-finals. I know the Falcons just put up 20 fantasy points against the Raiders, but I expect Aidan O’Connell to be back under center this week, and he has been capable enough to keep a bad defense like the Jaguars at bay.
I was much higher on the Rams defense a month ago, but three straight poor outings (albeit mostly against good offenses) kind of put a damper on that before thet registered 12 fantasy points against the 49ers on Thursday. Over the last two months, they rank 7th in pass rush productivity rate and ninth in the NFL with 7.3 fantasy points per game. However, they have admittedly fallen off in other categories, slipping down to 18th in turnover rate and 19th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. I do think they can get back some of that magic against a Jets team that has nothing to play for and almost lost to the Jaguars on Sunday, but I’m not as confident as I was earlier.
The Seahawks are another defense that has taken a step back a bit over the last two weeks, but not nearly as big of one as the Rams. Over the last two months, the Seahawks rank 4th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 10th in EPA allowed per play, and 11th in turnover rate, which has led to them being eighth in the NFL with 7.7 fantasy points per game. The matchup with Minnesota is a risky one because they’ve been on fire for the last month, but they’ve also had some weeks where they turn the ball over far too much. The Seahawks need this game for their playoff hopes, so you know they’re going to come to play, but if Geno Smith can’t suit up, I think the defense will be put in too many bad spots to roll them out there in most formats.
The Cardinals were also a trendy sleeper for the playoffs because of their schedule, but they have now fallen flat in two easy matchups and average just 5.5 fantasy points per game in the four games since their bye week. They do rank 9th in pass rush productivity rate but also 16th in EPA per play allowed, 17th in opponents’ scoring rate and 28th in turnover rate, so I can’t trust them in most formats this weekend against a Panthers offense that has tough for fantasy defenses for two months before their one poor game this weekend against Dallas.
Rank | Tier Five DSTs | BOD RANKING | |
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
