It’s Week 14 which means most people are just one week away from the fantasy playoffs, so of course there are six teams on bye this week which will throw all of our rosters into chaos. When it comes to defenses in weeks like this, I’ve learned to often side with the strong defenses, even in mediocre matchups. We have a lot on the line in the week before playoffs and I’d rather lean into the safe floor of a strong defense than have my playoff hopes rest on the shoulders of a terrible defense going up against a mediocre offense. But maybe that’s just me.
Week 13 was another fine but not great week for us, but we did manage to nail six of the top 10 defenses for the week, albeit on a bit of a technicality since both the Commanders and Cardinals tied with a few teams for the final spot. The Chargers, Jets, Falcons, and Steelers surprised with top-ten performances on the week, and the Panthers and Bengals also forced their way into a tied spot, which surprised me and caused me to re-evaluate how I’m doing my rankings.
Ever since I switched from using season-long stats to just stats from the last six weeks and also using the last month of games for points allowed to opposing defenses, I feel like the ranking has been off. Perhaps the rankings have been skewed too much by the recency bias of the numbers, so I’ve started using the last two months of stats for defensive rankings (pass rush productivity rate, turnover rate, etc.), and I’ve started manually calculating the fantasy points allowed by offenses that have clearly changed their performance of late (Bears, Panthers, Falcons, etc.). Perhaps that will make things feel a bit more stable for me, but we’re not doing so poorly in our picks, so there is no major cause for alarm.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 13: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 71-59 (54.6%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 14?
The Steelers delivered 15 fantasy points this past Sunday against a Bengals offense that had been turning the corner of late. Over the last six weeks, the Steelers have averaging 10.3 fantasy points per game, and they’re the third defense in my BOD rankings, so I certainly trust them. They’re also 1st in turnover rate, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 10th in explosive play rate over the last two months if you need evidence that they’re an elite defense. I know they didn’t put up huge numbers against the Browns last time in the snow, but I expect this game to go a little differently at home.
The Vikings’ defense was pretty average this past Sunday against the Cardinals and dropped the ball two weeks ago against the Bears, but Arizona can be a difficult opponent and Chicago has been a tougher matchup since they changed offensive philosophies with their coaching changes. Minnesota also hasn’t been as stout on defense as they were to open the season, but they’ve averaged 8.4 fantasy points over the last six weeks and still remain a solid unit. However, they rank 19th in pass rush productivity rate over the last two months and 14th in explosive play rate allowed. They do still create a lot of turnovers which keeps them useful and that could be important since they’ll take on a Falcons offense that is spiraling of late and has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and the sixth-most over the last six weeks. Kirk Cousins doesn’t look like the same quarterback we’ve seen in the past, and even though he may be looking for revenge against his old team, I think the Vikings can take advantage of his weaknesses this weekend.
The Eagles have been my number-one defense over the last two months and have averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They rank 1st in opponent scoring rate, 2nd in pass rush productivity rate, 2nd in forced incompletion rate, and 7th in turnover rate over the last two months and seem like they’re in a smash spot against the Panthers. However, Bryce Young has been playing much better football of late, and the Panthers don’t give up lots of sacks, which means the Panthers have given up the 7th-fewest points to opposing defenses over the last month. I’m not as excited about this matchup as I was before, but I don’t think the Panthers have really faced a defense of this caliber, so I’d still happily roll out the Eagles’ defense.
This Seahawks and Cardinals game features two defenses that started the year really struggling but have since turned it on and two offenses that were tough matchups early in the year but have started bleeding fantasy points of late. The Seahawks’ offense has been the most giving of the two, giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month while the Cardinals, who were previously in the top-five most difficult matchups, have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over that same span. That creates a situation where both of these defenses are in play, especially during a week where we have six teams on bye, including defenses like the Texans and Broncos, who we tend to use for fantasy. The Seahawks averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and rank 7th in opponent’s scoring rate, 8th in turnover rate, 9th in forced incompletion rate, and 13th in pass rush productivity rate over the last two months, which is why I prefer them slightly.
I know it feels weird to rank the Chargers this high when they’re facing the Chiefs, but defenses that face Kansas City have scored five fantasy points per game over their last six games which makes the Chiefs the 12th-hardest matchup for fantasy defenses. However, the defenses they faced over those six games were the Panthers, Bucs, Broncos, Bills, and Raiders twice. That’s only two games against strong defenses, and the Chargers have averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game over the last six games. I think this could be a 7-9 point game for the Chargers and on a week with so many teams on bye, that should get them into the top 10.
The Bears defense has sputtered a bit of late, averaging just five fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They do still rank 4th in forced incompletion rate and 5th in pass rush productivity rate over the last two months, but they’re 25th in opponent’s scoring rate and 30th in explosive play rate allowed, which is, you know, not great. If this 49ers team was healthier, I’d have the Bears much lower, but Christian McCaffrey is likely out for the season, Jordan Mason is also probably out for the remainder of the season, and the 49ers are not the same offensive without Trent Williams at left tackle. Now, if Williams does play, I may move the Bears down into the next tier, but I am just not as afraid of this 49ers offense as I used to be.
So Drew Lock started for the Giants on Thanksgiving and it was no better than when Tommy DeVito was under center. This Giants offensive line is struggling, but I don’t think the team has given up. They mounted a comeback against the Cowboys, and I think they’ll view the Saints game as a winnable one. Pair that with the Saints’ defense not being great, and I don’t think is a smash spot; however, I absolutely think it makes the Saints a top 10 play on a week with six teams on bye.
The Bills defense ranks 5th with 9.4 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They just got Matt Milano back, and they are a ball-hawking group that loves to create turnovers. However, the Rams are playing at home in a huge matchup and are a bottom-ten matchup for opposing fantasy defenses. Plus, the Bills remain one of the worst run defenses in football, and I believe that Sean McVay is going to find ways to exploit that while also running out the clock to keep Josh Allen off the field. That will limit plays which limits opportunities for sacks and turnovers, and so I think the Bills are a fringe top-ten option this week.
The Lions have been one of the mainstays atop the fantasy defense rankings this season and averaged 10 points per game over the last six weeks; however, the Packers are a bottom-ten matchup for opposing fantasy defenses. The Lions also lost linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez and defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo for the season, which adds to their growing list of injuries. They should get cornerback Carlton Davis back for this game against the Packers, but at some point, these injuries are going to start to catch up to Detroit and if more teams were playing this weekend then they may not be ranked this high.
I faded the Bucs this past weekend against the Panthers, and I’ve never been a huge fan of the Titans’ defense for fantasy, especially with L’Jarius Sneed on the IR, but these matchups are good. Trevor Lawrence is almost certain to miss this weekend after taking a vicious hit on Sunday and he really shouldn’t have even been playing to begin with. I know Mac Jones almost won that game, but we’ve seen enough in his career to know that we want to start fantasy defenses against him, which makes the Titans relevant here. The Bucs will also get a Raiders offense that has allowed almost nine fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and has been one of the easiest matchups all season. If you have an elite defense on bye, I think both of these teams are in play this week.
The Bengals defense is not good. I had to cover the Bengals-Steelers game for my Rotoworld blurbs this Sunday, so I watched every snap. This is a bad unit, and the Steelers exposed a major flaw in using screens and misdirection against an overly aggressive front. The only reason the Bengals were playable in fantasy this past weekend was because Cam Taylor-Britt pushed George Pickens to the ground by his helmet and then stood there to pick off a pass and take it into the end zone. I would normally never have the Bengals near the top 10, but we have to consider it when Cooper Rush and the Cowboys are the opponents. Now, Rush has gotten his legs under him in the three games where he wasn’t facing the Eagles, so I don’t think this is a cakewalk, but this Cowboys offense is certainly no longer elite, so I can see playing the Bengals in deeper formats.
That Browns- Broncos game on Monday night was a wild one, but the Browns defense wasn’t all to blame for the high score. Yes, they did allow 27 points to the Broncos’ offense, but they also picked off Bo Nix twice and if it weren’t for the Broncos’ defensive touchdowns, we’d probably be approaching the Browns a little differently heading into this week. This is a defense that ranks 1st in pass rush productivity rate, 3rd in forced incompletion rate, and 9th in opponent’s scoring rate over the last two months. They just had a good game against the Steelers two weeks ago, and while I don’t expect them to duplicate that this week, they’re still a solid defense in an average matchup, and in a week with six teams on bye, that can make them playable in deeper formats.
I know it might be strange to see the Rams, 49ers, and Packers down here, but their matchups aren’t good ones. The Bears have been a much tougher matchup for fantasy defenses since they switched to Thomas Brown as the offensive coordinator because they are using more quick-hitting passes and preventing Caleb Williams from holding onto the ball too long, taking bad sacks, and forcing passes. Now, he’ll still do that once in a while but not nearly as often, and that takes a lot of the ceiling out of playing the 49ers this week, especially after they just got blown out on national television and lost their star running back for the season.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
