Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Once again, Vegas loves the Lions. They have the second-highest implied team total at 27.75 points. Goff is fifth in passing yards and 11th in touchdowns. He has at least two scores in six games this year and gets a defense that ranks 20th in dropback EPA.
Start: Joshua Dobbs, Vikings
Dobbs ranks second among quarterbacks in rushing yards, third in attempts, and third in touchdowns. That level of rushing alone puts him in the QB1 conversation. A date with a Chicago defense that ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks sneaks him into the top 12 quarterbacks.
Sit: Sam Howell, Commanders
Howell has been spinning it lately, but that will likely come to an end for at least a week. The Commanders face the Cowboys this week and have a team total of 17 points. That’s lower than the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and is the No. 3 unit by EPA per dropback.
Sit: Russell Wilson, Broncos
The Browns have allowed two quarterbacks to throw for more than 200 yards this year. They’ve held four quarterbacks under 100 yards. No team allows fewer fantasy points or yards to quarterbacks. Cleveland’s opponents also run the fewest plays in the NFL. There are roughly five quarterbacks who remain starts when they face the Browns and Wilson isn’t one of them.
Running Back
Start: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Ken Walker went down early in Week 11, paving the way for Charbonnet to play a three-down role. The rookie earned 71 percent of Seattle’s carries and 17 percent of the targets. Walker is out this week, giving Charbonnet one of the highest touch-floors of Week 12.
Start: Gus Edwards, Ravens
Edwards leads the NFL in carries inside the five and touchdowns inside the five. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs and Gus is in a great spot to get rolling downhill this week. He and the Ravens are 5.5-point favorites with a 26-point implied team total.
Sit: AJ Dillon, Packers
Dillon hasn’t been the workhorse many expected when Aaron Jones has missed time this year.
His lack of efficiency on the ground has meant that an uptick in carries isn’t worth much in the way of fantasy production. He has also missed out on Jones’s receiving volume meaning that even a PPR boost is out of reach. The Packers are underdogs on the road versus Detroit in Week 12, making it unlikely that they can establish much of a ground game.
Sit: Joe Mixon, Bengals
Mixon ranks 30th in PFF rushing grade this year and 42nd in yards after contact per carry. His whole shtick was being the workhorse back on an elite offense. Sans Joe Burrow, the Bengals have a 16.75 implied team total and are two-point dogs to the Steelers.
Wide Receiver
Start: Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
Sam Prescott has been dealing lately and, in turn, Mike McCarthy is letting him cook. Prescott has 1,271 yards and 13 touchdowns over his past four games.
McCarthy has matched his play with a pass-heavy attack over that stretch. The Cowboys have a 10 percent pass rate over expected in their past four games. Cooks is second among the receivers in targets over the past month, making him a great bet for a blowup versus the lowly Commanders defense.
Start: Josh Downs, Colts
Tutu Atwell was originally in this spot. With Cooper Kupp expected to play, Atwell goes back to being a sit. Downs, on the other hand, is in a great spot. The Bucs allow the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers and are 25th in EPA per dropback allowed. Downs was banged up in his previous two games, resulting in route rates below 50 percent and duds from a fantasy perspective. He didn’t appear on the injury report after his team’s Week 11 bye, so he should be back to his normal role versus Tamp Bay. Before Week 9, Downs had a 21 percent target share and was averaging 12.5 PPR points per game.
Sit: Chris Godwin, Bucs
Godwin has collapsed over the second half of the season to date. His target share and air yards share are down and his yards per route run has cratered. He was averaging 2.3 YPRR through five games. That is down to 1.27 over his past five. The WR3 days appear to be over for Godwin.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Browns
Cooper’s numbers have been decimated when Deshaun Watson is sidelined this season.
That shouldn’t be awfully surprising as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is last in the NFL in EPA per play and CPOE. P.J. Walker isn’t far behind.
Tight End
Start: Tucker Kraft, Packers
Luke Musgrave and Josiah Deguara are out this week, leaving Kraft as a starting and every-down tight end. Kraft was a solid prospect coming out of college. He posted a 65/780/6 receiving line as a junior. Kraft missed time as a senior because of an injury but backed up his strong third season with a 9.68 RAS at the combine.
Tucker Kraft was drafted with pick 78 of round 3 in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.68 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 36 out of 1105 TE from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/oyeytl8sSU pic.twitter.com/wBzzJpQqwk
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 29, 2023
Start: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Likely earned a route rate of 77 percent when Mark Andrews was out in Week 1. He upped that to 88 percent last week. He didn’t put up usable fantasy numbers in either game, but we’ve seen him do so when Andrews was sidelined previously. Even if his target share sans Andrews doesn’t live up to the 2022 hype, Likely would still be an every-down tight end on one of the best offenses in football.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
Freiermuth has played in five games this year and has no more than four targets in a week. In his first game back from injured reserve, he only ran a route 39 percent of Kenny Pickett’s dropbacks. With the Steelers’ offense falling into complete disrepair, Freiermuth is closer to being a cut than a start.
Sit: Tanner Hudson, Bengals
Hudson had two weeks of fantasy relevance, but that has likely come to an end. He was already outperforming his role, recording 10 catches on 11 targets and fewer than half of the Bengals’ routes. Now, with Jake Browning at the helm, he can be cut.