Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Sportsbooks love the Lions this week, giving them the second-highest team total of Week 11. The Bears have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 31st in EPA per dropback. They are trending toward overtaking Denver for the worst pass defense in the league by EPA per play.
Start: Joshua Dobbs, Vikings
The Vikings have shockingly stayed consistent with their pass-first approach since losing Kirk Cousins. Over the past two weeks, the offense has had a positive pass rate over expected despite giving two quarterbacks their first start in Minnesota.
The elevated number of dropbacks for Dobbs has helped his passing numbers and has also juiced his rushing stats via scrambles. He has 15 carries for 110 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota.
Sit: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield has been impressive this year. Passed on by multiple teams in recent seasons, he has partially reinvented himself in Tamp Bay by cutting out many of the backbreaking mistakes he couldn’t stop making while in Carolina and Cleveland. I write this to cushion the blow of having him ranked as my QB24 this week. Vegas has the Bucs, who are road dogs versus the 49ers, with a 14.75 point total. That’s ahead of only the Giants. The 49ers’ defense is fourth in EPA per dropback and has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers. Despite Baker’s turnaround, this week is a nightmare for him.
Sit: Will Levis, Titans
After his four-score debut a few weeks ago, Levis has come crashing back to Earth. Even including that game, Levis ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and 25th in CPOE. Both marks rank behind Ryan Tannehill. The Titans refuse to use Levis on designed runs and the rookie isn’t scrambling either, leaving no fantasy value to be mined here.
Running Back
Start: Brian Robinson, Commanders
Robinson and the Commanders are 11-point favorites versus the Giants. New York has faced the third-most carries from running backs and has allowed the second-most yards to backs. Robinson has the sixth-highest carry share this year at 60 percent.
Start: Devin Singletary, Texans
Singletary had the best game of a Texans running back this season in Week 10 and one of the highest usage games of the year. He ran 30 times for 150 yards, repeatedly gashing Cincinati’s defense. Singletary became just the fourth running back to see 30 carries in a game this season.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Hubbard remains the Panthers’ top running back, but Frank Reich and Co. gave Miles Sanders the plurality of the routes in Week 10. Sanders’ route rate got up to 43 percent. Hubbard was only at 30 percent. The Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs against the No. 11 defense in rush EPA allowed. Hubbard is a low-end RB3 this week, but his lack of usage through the air could prevent him from coming close to RB2 numbers.
Sit: Najee Harris, Steelers
In a week that saw Jaylen Warren earn his first start of the season, Harris set a season-low in carry share (47 percent) and tied his season-low in snap share (50 percent). He gets a defense that ranks sixth in EPA per rush allowed this week and is being blown out of the water in every efficiency metric by Warren. The ceiling appears to be a 50/50 split of carries while the floor could be true backup duties.
Wide Receiver
Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
To those saying Sutton can’t keep getting away with it: He can and he will. Sutton is fifth in end zone targets and ninth in red zone targets. Russell Wilson leads the NFL in touchdown rate and nearly half of his end zone targets are aimed at Sutton.
Start: Marquise Brown, Cardinals
Brown didn’t do much in Kyler Murray’s debut, but the Cardinals made it clear that the horizontal air raid is dead. Murray attempted passes 10+ yards downfield at a rate 9.8 percent higher than his career average. Brown had a comical, 20.7 aDOT. The Cardinals are intent on pairing his speed with Murray’s arm and it’s only a matter of time before the connection gets home.
Sit: Christian Watson, Packers
“It” doesn’t appear to be “happening” for “Christian Watson.” The speedy receiver returned to the lineup in Week 4. He has a respectable, 17 percent target share and 34 percent air yards share since then. Those fancy numbers only matter if the targets are catchable. Watson currently ranks 75th out of 75 qualified receivers in catchable target rate.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Browns
Cooper has dominated the targets for Cleveland all year, but that has failed to matter much when Deshaun Watson isn’t in the lineup. Watson played a dozen snaps in Weeks 4 through 8 but was otherwise unavailable.
In these games, Cooper averaged 9.1 PPR points per game. That would put him outside the WR4 range on the year.
Tight End
Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans
Schultz has a 24 percent target share and a 36 percent end zone target share over his past five games. Now he will take on an even bigger role over the middle of the field with breakout slot receiver Noah Brown out for Week 11.
Start: Logan Thomas, Commanders
Antonio Gibson looks unlikely to play in Week 11 because of a toe issue. He had been serving as an extensively used check-down option for Sam Howell in recent weeks, racking up five receptions in each of his previous three games. With neither Brian Robinson nor Chris Rodriguez offering much through the air, the role of safety valve will likely fall on Thomas’s plate. Thomas is already on pace to finish as the TE11 this season.
Sit: David Njoku, Browns
Njoku still hasn’t had a game with an aDOT over five. His season-long aDOT sits at exactly three. For reference, that sits somewhere between the target depths of Ameer Abdullah and Kenneth Gainwell. Njoku recently saw his role improve via some extra end zone targets, but those will likely disappear with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Sit: Tyler Higbee, Rams
Since Cooper Kupp returned, Higbee has earned a 13 percent target share. He has one game over two receptions or 20 yards. With two alpha receivers dominating the targets in LA, Higbee is nothing more than a low-end TE2.
