It wasn’t our best week, finishing with just four of the top 10 defenses correct. We had a lot of defenses come out of nowhere to slide into the top 10 like the Cardinals, Patriots, Jaguars, and Panthers. Some of those were the result of good matchups, like the Panthers against the Giants, but the Cardinals torching the Jets and the Jaguars handling the Vikings offense were mild surprises. Hopefully, we can get ahead of some of those surprises this week.
Just a reminder that now that we’ve gone beyond the halfway point of the season, my BOD rankings have been changed to not reflect season-long stats but stats from the past six weeks. I hope that this reflects the level of talent that defenses are playing at now and not what we saw in the first few weeks when they were maybe healthier, using different personnel, or facing an easy schedule, etc.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 10: 4-6
SEASON-LONG: 54-46 (54%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 11?
The Lions’ defense showed up on Sunday night, holding the Texans to 248 yards while picking off C.J. Stroud twice and sacking him four times. They kept the Lions in the game despite Jared Goff throwing five interceptions. In fact, the Lions’ defense has been producing like this all season. Over the last six weeks, the Lions rank first in turnover rate, fourth in opponent’s scoring rate, and 10th in pass rush productivity. They now appear likely to take on a Jaguars team that will have Mac Jones at quarterback. Giddy up.
The Vikings may not be hitting the highs they did earlier in the season, but they remain a solid fantasy defense. Over the last six weeks, they rank second in turnover rate and third in opponents’ scoring rate but have also fallen to 15th in pass rush productivity grade and 22nd in explosive play rate allowed. That said they’ve averaged 10.4 fantasy points over the last six weeks, so the turnovers are incredibly impactful. They’ll get a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season and has allowed the fifth-most over the last month. It’s hard to find a team in a better spot.
The Rams lost on Monday Night Football, but it really wasn’t their defense’s fault. They held Miami to 238 total yards, forced two turnovers, and sacked Tua Tagovailoa three times. Over the last six weeks, they are tops in fantasy football, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game. While some of that is due to defensive touchdowns, they also rank second in pass rush productivity grade, sixth in turnover rate, and 14th in opponent’s scoring rate. They will give up some big plays, but I don’t think this Patriots offense, even with Drake Maye at the helm, is an offense we need to worry about gaining huge chunk plays. I trust the Rams’ pass rush to get home a few times, and I like them as a play this week.
This Cowboys offense has been mediocre for much of the season, but the version we saw with Cooper Rush under center last week was even worse. Rush threw 23 passes and gained just 45 yards while fumbling twice, but he also only took one sack and didn’t throw any interceptions, so I guess that’s a silver lining. We also might not get many sacks this week from a Texans defense that ranks 18th in pass rush productivity over the last six weeks; however, the Texans are also tied for second in turnover rate and fifth in opponent’s scoring rate, so they should keep the Cowboys offense in check and capitalize on any mistakes Rush may make. If the Cowboys start Trey Lance then I like this Texans defense even more.
The Saints may have won their first game without Chris Olave, but they’re going to see a step up in defensive opponent in the Browns defense. Over the last six weeks, the Browns rank first in pass rush productivity grade, first in forced incompletion rate, and eighth in opponent’s scoring rate. They have struggled to get turnovers and have struggled with allowing big plays, but I’m not sure the Saints have the firepower to hit on big plays unless you think this weekend’s production from Marquez Valdes-Scantling is for real. The Saints are coming down from their one-game high after naming an interim head coach, so I expect a bit of a letdown this weekend.
The Commanders may have lost this weekend, but their defense has been playing good football of late. They rank third in pass rush productivity grade, fourth in opponent’s scoring rate, and 12th in turnover rate. They do rank eighth in explosive play rate allowed so there is a weakness here that Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith can exploit, but the Eagles allow the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season and did turn the ball over twice while allowing five sacks to the Cowboys this past weekend. That could be an opening for the Commanders’ defense.
The Packers are coming off a bye and facing a key divisional opponent that is reeling of late. The Bears were down three starting offensive linemen on Sunday and over the last four weeks have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. This offense lacks any creativity, and the vibes are not great right now. The Packers’ defense itself has been solid but not elite. Over the last six weeks, they rank 10th in turnover rate, 13th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate. With a full week to prepare and a poor Bears offense on deck, I think the Packers can sneak into the top 10 this week. I do think the Bears offense will be better without Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator, but I just don’t know how quickly that improvement will happen.
The 49ers laid an egg against a Buccaneers offense without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and now they’ll get a Seahawks team that should be getting DK Metcalf back. With that, it’s hard to get overly excited about the 49ers; however, over the last six weeks, they rank third in forced incompletion rate, 11th in turnover rate, and 14th in pass rush productivity grade, so they’re a fringe top 10 defense in a solid matchup. On the season, the Seahawks allow the eighth-most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses in part because they rank 21st in sack rate allowed and they drop back to pass more than most other teams in the NFL. That could open up a window for the 49ers to accumulate solid fantasy value in a crucial game.
The Broncos felt like one of the safest defenses in football a few weeks ago, and while they remain a solid real-life defense, their fantasy ceiling might not be as high as we thought. Over the last six weeks, they are averaging eight fantasy points per game and rank third in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, sixth in pass rush productivity grade, 15th in turnover rate, and 15th in opponent’s scoring rate. They now face a Falcons offense that’s just outside the top 10 of the worst matchups for opposing fantasy defenses. So we have a solid but not great fantasy defense in a below-average matchup? Man, maybe I’m talking myself into moving the Broncos lower than my formula has them.
The Dolphins showed a little bit of juice on Monday night, sacking Matthew Stafford five times after not being able to muster much of a pass rush at all before that. Over the last six weeks, the Dolphins averaged just four fantasy points per game. They rank 21st in opponent’s scoring rate, 25th in turnover rate, and 26th in pass rush productivity. They’re also at home in a must-win game against an offense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month so that puts the Dolphins on the top-10 fringe for me this week.
The Eagles have been my number-one defense over the last six weeks. Over that span, they rank first in opponent’s scoring rate, second in explosive play rate allowed, seventh in turnover rate, and eighth in pass rush productivity. That has led to an average of 11.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Their matchup is not a good one as Washington gives up the second-fewest fantasy points per game on the season to opposing defenses. Over the last three weeks, the Bears’ defense scored three points against the Commanders, the Giants scored zero, and the Steelers scored five. It’s just hard for me to assume the Eagles can put up more than six fantasy points here, so it’s hard to see them as a top 10 unit.
The Chargers are another solid defense in a poor matchup. For a while, it seemed like the Chargers might be an elite unit, but it turned out that they were just playing an easy schedule. They’re certainly not bad. I mean, they’ve averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, so you’re not mad at that; however, they rank second in opponent’s scoring rate, 14th in turnover rate, and 21st in pass rush productivity over that span so they’re getting a lot of their value from holding teams to low point totals. That’s going to be harder to go against the Bengals, especially if they were to get Tee Higgins back this week. As a result, the Chargers aren’t a bad play, but their ceiling doesn’t seem to be too high.
The Colts and Jets are both clinging to their playoff lives, so you’d assume both teams come out with everything they’ve got this weekend, but both of these offenses just look abysmal of late. The Jets have gotten no better since trading for Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers looks like a 41-year-old quarterback, and they just lost left tackle Tyron Smith to a neck injury which would be a huge loss if he misses next week. The Colts will keep Joe Flacco under center, but they’re also dealing with offensive line injuries and Flacco is less mobile than Aaron Rodgers, which has led to sacks and bad throws under pressure. It seems like we’d want to play both defenses here, but neither one has been a great fantasy unit of late. Over the last six weeks, the Colts are 16th with 6.5 fantasy points per game, and the Jets are 27th with four fantasy points per game. I can see playing them in deeper leagues for the matchup, but I have no idea how this game is going to go, so I’d rather avoid it.
The Bears’ defense is averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They rank fourth in pass rush productivity grade, ninth in turnover rate, and 11th in opponent’s scoring rate. However, the Packers give up the seventh-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses, and Jordan Love should be healed from his strained groin now that he had the bye week to rest up. I think the Bears are certainly capable of making big plays and putting up a top-10 day on any given Sunday, but I don’t love this matchup, so it’s hard for me to rank them any higher.
Yes, we want to attack any Jameis Winston-led offense because he loves to throw interceptions, but the Saints are averaging just 5.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and just traded away Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. Even before that deal, the Saints ranked 25th in opponents’ scoring rate, 30th in explosive play rate allowed, and 30th in pass rush productivity grade over the last six weeks. Winston may throw an interception or two, but he also could hit on some big plays and long touchdown passes that could doom this Saints defense. I’d rather find another option this weekend.
There are also a few strong defenses in bad matchups here. The Bills and Chiefs play each other and each offense is a bottom 10 matchup. The Steelers also get a tough matchup against the Ravens defense that allows the fewest points to opposing defenses.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
