Week 1 is here, and welcome to my weekly DST rankings! I’ve been running a version of this column for four years now, and it has won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Series twice, so I hope I can continue providing you with informative and helpful content. I use my research/articles for my own weekly DST streams and waiver adds, so we’re truly in this together and I promise to keep pushing myself to ensure the information below is useful.
We’ve spent months during this NFL offseason evaluating and analyzing, but truth be told, we were mostly guessing. We assumed which teams would be good and who would have which roles on their teams, but now we get to see these teams in action. When it comes to defenses that means we get to finally see who has schemes that could generate consistent pressure and which players put in the work over the offseason to take their game to another level. We also get to see which offenses we truly want to attack when choosing our defenses.
What you’ll get below, and get every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
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BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents definitely factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
This offseason, I went through all of my previous metrics and tried to see which ones correlated to a top-10 defense most often, so I’ll be making a small change and swapping out pressure rate for quarterback hit rate. It’s a minor modification, but quarterback hit rate correlated more often to top-10 defenses, so we’ll see if that helps improve the rankings even more this year.
Since we’re just in Week 1, we don’t have true BOD rankings because we don’t have any stats to add to our formula. In truth, it will likely take about three weeks to have enough information to start to see which DSTs we can trust and which offenses we want to attack. Until then, we want to mitigate risk by relying on defenses that have clear talent advantages, track records of success, or offenses that we know are short-handed.
So how do these defenses rank for Week 1?
The 49ers are my fifth-ranked defense on the season, and I likely could be much higher in a week or two, but I wanted to see how they handled some personnel turnover in the offseason. The 49ers’ defense ranked fourth in DVOA last year but was inconsistent for fantasy, finishing second in turnover rate but 13th in opponent’s scoring rate and 17th in pressure rate. However, at the end of the day, I’m also not ready to anoint the Jets as an elite unit. Will they be good with Aaron Rodgers under center? Yes, of course. But they still may lean on the run. Rodgers may still take a few sacks behind a brand-new offensive line. Until we see the Jets as a top-tier offense, I’m not going to assume they are one, so the 49ers just feel like a safe bet to be a solid, top-10 defense this week, even if they’re not the odds-on favorite to be the highest scoring one.
The Cowboys were an elite big-play defense in 2024, ranking fifth in DVOA, fourth in turnover rate, and first in defensive TDs, even after the early injury to Trevon Diggs. Diggs being back at his old level alongside Daron Bland (when he returns in Week 5) will be crucial for this defense. Yet this ranking is also because this could honestly be a bad Browns offense again. Nick Chubb is still out, and Deshaun Watson was not good last year and has been battling arm issues this preseason. If Cleveland is even an average offense, which feels entirely likely, then this matchup is a good one for Dallas.
The Bengals didn’t rank highly for me in the preseason after finishing as a middle-of-the-pack defense in 2023, ranking 11th in turnover rate, 18th in sacks, and 24th in opponents’ scoring rate. That was good for 23rd in DVOA. However, I think this Patriots offense could be brutal. They don’t have a lot of skill position players that I think can change a game, and their offensive line looked rough, to put it nicely, in the preseason. I’m planning to pick on them early in the season until I get proven otherwise.
The Seahawks were a trendy unit heading into 2023 thanks to dynamic young players, but they finished 28th in DVOA, thanks to ranking 11th in sacks, 21st in turnover rate, and 28th in opponents’ scoring rate. The team should conceivably see growth from young CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon and also drafted DT Byron Murphy in the first round to add to their young corps. Pair that with re-signing DT Leonard Williams and there’s some optimism for a breakthrough season in 2024, but this play is more about the Denver offense for me. I’m not a big believer in Bo Nix as anything more than a fine NFL quarterback, and I think the pass-catchers in Denver leave something to be desired. I’m OK picking on this offense for now.
The Steelers were my fourth-ranked defense in the preseason. They have been a fantasy mainstay for years and that didn’t change in 2023 with them finishing sixth in DVOA. They allowed a lot of yards but were seventh in turnover rate, 12th in sacks, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate as more of a bend-but-don’t-break unit. T.J. Watt remains one of the best defensive players in the league and Minkah Fitzpatrick was effective when healthy. Atlanta is another offense we expect to get better, but until we see it, I’m OK with leaning on a proven elite defense like the Steelers.
The Saints were a popular defense last year due to a friendly schedule, and they finished in the top 10 in most scoring formats after being fifth in opponents’ scoring rate and sixth in turnover rate. However, they were just 29th in sacks, so they’ll hope for a better season from DE Cameron Jordan, who had just two sacks, a step forward from 2023 first-rounder Bryan Bresee, and an impact from newly-signed DE Chase Young. My mild concerns about this Saints defense plus the Panthers’ additions on the offensive line and with Diontae Johnson now in the fold moved New Orleans down to tier two for me, but I still like the play.
The Bills defense is really banged up already and will be without Matt Milano for perhaps the entire season, but I’m OK taking them against the Cardinals. Yes, Kyler Murray is back, but this offensive line needs to improve, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is completely unproven. The Bills are always a well-coached defense, they have talented corners in Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, and I believe they will be in the backfield often with Arizona likely playing catch-up against Josh Allen, so I like this matchup for them.
The Bucs defense took a step back in 2023, finishing outside the top 10 in most scoring formats and 14th in DVOA. They were seventh in turnover rate and 10th in sacks but 15th in opponents’ scoring rate and 22nd in yards allowed per play. I don’t believe those last two metrics will come into play as much against Washington. Jayden Daniels will be solid, and he’ll be great for fantasy, but I’m OK taking a defense against a rookie quarterback with questions about his passing ability who’s in his NFL debut and playing behind PFF’s 27th-ranked offensive line. Add to that a pretty bare cupboard of receiving weapons (apart from Terry McLaurin), and I think the Bucs defense is a solid play this week.
The Browns were one of the better defenses in football last year, ranking second in DVOA thanks to being first in opponent’s scoring rate, tied for first in yards per play, and fifth in pressure rate. They did all of that with a banged-up secondary since all of Grant Delpit, Denzel Ward, and Greg Newsome missed multiple games in 2024, which helped limit the Browns to 17th in turnover rate. I believe they could be one of the best defenses in football this season, and we may be overrating Dallas’ offense. Yes, CeeDee Lamb is great and now signed to an extension, but the pass-catchers behind him are largely unproven or facing regression (Brandin Cooks). Also, this running game could be a real issue unless we see Rico Dowdle produce because Ezekiel Elliot didn’t look to have much juice last year. I don’t think this is a “good” matchup, but I’m not scared of it with a defense as good as the Browns.
The Texans’ defense had strong stretches in their first season with DeMeco Ryans as head coach but finished in the middle of the pack for fantasy. In the offseason, they lost leading tackler Blake Cashman as well as DTs Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins, who were third and fourth on the team in sacks. Yet, they brought in DE Danielle Hunter after his 16-sack season with the Vikings, DE Denico Autry, who had 11.5 sacks for the Titans, and LB Azeez AL-Shaair, who thrived under Ryans in San Francisco, so this pass rush should be better in 2024. They also added CB Kamari Lassiter in the second round, safety Calen Bullock in the third, and plenty of veterans to improve their depth, so I like the talent on this defense, and I think they can make things hard for Anthony Richardson, who still has some room to improve as a passer. This Colts offense is fine, but I believe they will turn the ball over, so I’ll take my chances with the Texans.
The Jets head into another season with one of the most talented defenses in football, ranking third in DVOA last year. They finished sixth in opponent’s scoring rate, and seventh in sacks but just 15th in turnovers and lost safety Jordan Whitehead, who led the team in interceptions. However, the Jets loaded up in the offseason, adding safety Chuck Clark, DT Javon Kinlaw, and Haason Reddick, only Reddick isn’t currently practicing with the team. Still, the talent here is good enough to hang with most offenses, and it appears that Trent Williams may not play for the 49ers. Still, when push comes to shove, I think this 49ers offense is a great unit, and I’d rather not start a defense against them if I didn’t have to.
The Giants’ defense will be under new leadership in 2024 after hiring former Titans coordinator Shane Bowen to replace Wink Martindale. The Giants finished ninth in turnover rate last year but also ranked 17th in opponents’ scoring rate and 28th in sacks. They tried to improve their secondary by drafting safety Tyler Nubin in the second round, slot corner Andru Phillips in the third round, and then signing safety Jalen Mills. However, their big splash was trading for Brian Burns, who has 38.5 sacks in the last four seasons. With Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the defensive line, the Giants should improve their sack totals quite a bit, and I think they could immediately make things hard on Sam Darnold in Week 1.
On the other side of the field, the Vikings are also a good play. They struggled with consistency in 2023 and finished as a middle-of-the-pack defense. Despite being 11th in DVOA, they were 19th in turnover rate, 20th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 20th in sacks. Unfortunately, the offseason wasn’t kind to them as they lost Danielle Hunter (16.5 sacks) to the Texans, LB D.J. Wonnum (8 sacks) to the Panthers, and LB Jordan Hicks (107 tackles) to the Browns. They spent a first-round pick on EDGE Dallas Turner and spent the rest of their offseason dedicated to rebuilding the LB corps by signing Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, and Blake Cashman, so they have added some pieces, but my desire to play them is more focused on my questions surrounding the Giants offense. I think Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary, and company are slightly better than they’re given credit for, so it’s not a smash play, but I think it’s a good play.
The Bears’ defense was better in the second half of the 2023 season, ranking fifth in fantasy points per game from Week 11 on. They got solid production after trading for DE Montez Sweat and were first in interceptions over the timeframe while allowing just 17.7 points and 324 yards per game. They will need to replace DT Justin Jones, DE Yannick Ngakoue, and safety Eddie Jackson, but they made a big splash in signing two-time All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. The lack of additions to the interior of the defensive line could be an issue, and I think this Titans offense could actually be a middle-of-the-pack one with Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd giving Will Levis a solid outlet of skill players. This is a fine matchup for the week but perhaps not a slam dunk one.
The Chargers’ defense has star power with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James, but they were 26th in DVOA last year and finished 18th in opponents’ scoring rate and 22nd in turnover rate. They also lost Eric Kendricks, Austin Johnson, and Kenneth Murray. If you want a case for optimism, they finished ninth in sacks, drafted LB Junior Colson in the third round, and signed LB Denzel Perryman, CB Kristian Fulton, and DT Poona Ford, so the cupboard isn’t bare but it will hinge on the health of Bosa and the development of CB Asante Samuel Jr. They’re fully healthy now and going up against a Raiders offense that I’m a bit skeptical of. I’m happy to take the gamble here in deeper formats.
Yet, the Raiders are also in play. They were a top-five defense over the nine games that Antonio Pearce served as their head coach last season. While some of that may have been schedule-related, the team also responded to their defensive-minded coach and finished eighth in DVOA on the season. However, I think a good deal of that was a fluke. The defense finished 17th in turnover rate, 27th in passes defended per game, and 29th in pressure rate, so there are a few weaknesses to shore up. On the plus side, they have a star in DE Maxx Crosby, now pair him with stud DT Christian Wilkins, and get to face a Chargers offense that seems devoid of weapons and has a quarterback in Justin Herbert who’s battling foot issues. Perhaps I should move the Raiders up more, but I trust Jim Harbaugh and have some concerns about the overall depth of this defense.
The Falcons added some intriguing talent to their defense in the last couple of weeks, but I’m just not sure how ingrained they are into their system by now. Pair that with the fact that they were a disappointing unit in 2024, finishing near the bottom in fantasy scoring while ranking 21st in sacks, 23rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 28th in turnover rate and it’s hard to get on board in Week 1 immediately.
The Ravens and Chiefs defenses both ranked inside the top-10 for me in my preseason rankings, but I also like both of these offenses, so I can’t see using their one in Week 1 unless I had to.
I’m big on the Packers’ defense this week, but I’d avoid this Week 1 matchup if I needed to.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.