Quarterback
Justin Fields, Steelers (32%)
The Steelers fell behind early in Week 4 and were forced to cut Fields loose. Fields dropped back a season-high 42 times and finished with 12 rush attempts. He returned the favor with a QB1 overall performance but also made more mistakes than we had seen in previous weeks. It was his lowest PFF passing grade of the year, his first game with a turnover-worthy play as a passer, and a season-high in sack rate. Fields threw for 312 yards and a score with a rushing line of 12/55/2. The fantasy output was great, but the result for the Steelers was not, and Mike Tomlin didn’t mince words after the game.
Mike Tomlin on Justin Fields: "I appreciate his fight. But he, and we, were a little bit sloppy at times, too sloppy to comfortably secure victory."
— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) September 29, 2024
The Steelers don’t want to play Fields hero ball and Fields is prone to making mistakes when too much is put on his shoulders. Pittsburgh is favored in four of their next five games and isn’t projected to be an underdog of more than a point until Week 11. Even though Fields is the top add at quarterback this week, I doubt we get another performance like this anytime soon.
Andy Dalton, Panthers (14%)
Dalton gets a tough matchup with the Bears in Week 5. They rank third in EPA per dropback allowed. Not great. On the other hand, Dalton is pretty good. He is sixth in EPA per play and 12th in adjusted yards per attempt. Most importantly, Dave Canales is opening things up with Dalton at quarterback.
Dalton also ranks 18th in deep throw rate while Bryce Young is 32nd. As far as QB2 options go, Dalton is the best you will find on the wire.
Others receiving votes: Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson
Running Back
Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (12%)
The Week 5 waiver wire is frothy with backup running backs pushing for larger roles. Of note, Bucky Irving is rostered in over half of all Yahoo leagues, taking him off the menu for this article. But be sure to check if he is available. Bigsby is at the top of the list of backs who could simply supplant their starter. He leads all running backs with 3.86 rush yards over expected per carry and 5.48 yards after contact per attempt. Travis Etienne hasn’t fallen flat in the advanced metrics but isn’t holding a candle to Bigsby either. Bigsby earned a career-high in carry share in Week 1 and posted his second-best game in Week 4. We’re barreling toward a backfield by committee in Jacksonville.
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Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (23%)
Allgeier led the Atlanta backfield in carries versus the Saints. He rushed eight times for 60 yards while Bijan Robinson was held to 28 yards on seven attempts. Robinson still led the Falcons’ backfield with a 61 percent snap share and a 58 percent route rate, but his snap share went down as a season-low. Head coach Raheem Morris was possessed by the ghost of Arthur Smith in his post-game press conference.
#Falcons HC Raheem Morris on the decision to roll with Tyler Allgeier:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 29, 2024
“He got a couple runs in there and he was able to tote that thing, and you just keep feeding him. And he got a couple really good runs, he was critical for us. He’s the heavy back, and he was heavy for us… pic.twitter.com/BTwBcXTQsS
Allgeier has bested Robinson in rush yards over expected, success rate, and PFF rushing grade this year. He isn’t a threat to take over the backfield, but Allgeier could work himself into a role worthy of FLEX consideration going forward.
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (36%)
The Chiefs called Hunt up the active roster for Week 4 and almost instantly treated him as their top running black. Carson Steele got the start but coughed up a fumble early. He wasn’t outright benched, but Andy Reid got Hunt and Samaje Perine involved in short order.
Chiefs RB touches after Carson Steele fumbled on the first drive:
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 30, 2024
Kareem Hunt 16
Samaje Perine 5
Steele 1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR) eligible to return in Week 5.
Steele had two uncaught targets that don’t appear in John Daigle’s tweet. Hunt finished the day with 14 carries for 69 yards and two receptions. He led the team ins snaps and carries. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to return to practice this week, so Hunt isn’t someone I would break the FAAB bank on. I wouldn’t bid more than 15 percent and CEH is worth few dollars as a stash.
Trey Sermon, Colts (2%)
Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 4, likely sidelining him for multiple weeks. Sermon worked his way into a depth option for the Colts last year and even earned one pseudo-start when Zack Moss went down early in a game. He rushed 17 times for 88 yards versus the Steelers. Moss left in free agency and Sermon cemented himself as the clear backup during the offseason. He will likely split reps with Tyler Goodson, who should see the bulk of his work on passing downs. Sermon is a similar bet to Cam Akers from a few weeks ago.
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys (49%)
The Cowboys are inching toward a Dowdle-led backfield. He has accounted for over 50 percent of the team’s carries in the past two weeks after hovering around a 33 percent carry share in his first two games. Dowdle finally got on the board with a receiving touchdown in Week 4 and set a season-high in carries with 11 attempts for 46 yards. He will never fully take over the Dallas backfield, but Dowdle is getting enough work to survive as an RB3.
Justice Hill, Ravens (14%)
Hill has two games with a snap share over 50 percent and two games with at least six receptions for 50 yards. He found the end zone for the first time this year in Baltimore’s Week 4 blowout of the Bills. Hill’s role as receiver has ballooned in the absence of any production whatsoever from Mark Andrews. Hill is fifth among running backs in target share (16 percent) and yards per route run (2.4). He is PFF’s No. 1 graded running back in the receiving game. The Ravens get three potentially high-scoring affairs in the next three weeks with Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay upcoming on the schedule. Hill should be good for RB3 numbers in PPR formats over that stretch.
Others receiving votes: Jeremy McNichols, Antonio Gibson, Roschon Johnson
Wide Receiver
Dontayvion Wicks, Packers (14%)
The Packers lost Christian Watson to a high-ankle sprain versus Minnesota. He is now a candidate to be placed on injured reserve which would sideline him for at least four games. Wicks was pushing him for snaps to start the year and will now step into a full-time role as a starting outside receiver. The second-year wideout earned a 70 percent snap share for the third time in his career last week. He averaged 5.7 receptions for 78.7 yards on nine targets in those games. Wicks also scored two touchdowns in two of the three games. Wicks has been incredibly efficient as a part-time player and only gets better as his role grows. Breakout wide receivers don’t come around often in the middle of the season. For teams in need at wide receiver, a 40 percent FAAB bid is more than reasonable.
Josh Downs, Colts (20%)
Downs began his rookie season at an elite pace, averaging five receptions for 59 yards through eight games. That would have been good for a 1,000-yard campaign had it held.
He suffered a knee injury that derailed the second half of his season and then missed the first two weeks of this year with an ankle injury. The Colts installed him as a full-time player in Week 3 and that was juiced with Joe Flacco checkdowns for much of Week 4. Anthony Richardson suffered a hip injury and was unable to return, putting the savior of the Browns’ 2023 season under center for the Colts. If Richardson misses time, Downs could break out as a PPR machine.
Xavier Legette, Panthers (14%)
The Panthers lost Adam Thielen last week and Legette immediately stepped into a full-time role. He ran a route on 88 percent of Andy Dalton’s dropbacks and was a featured weapon in the passing game. Legette earned a 24 percent target share and a 28 percent first-read target share. He is still raw as a receiver, but Legette is a playmaker who has the buy-in of his coaches.
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (26%)
Wan’Dale Robinson’s target-earning ability has been overshadowed by Malik Nabers’ record-setting pace, but New York’s slot receiver shouldn’t be overlooked. He is quietly fourth in the NFL in targets (38) and receptions (26). Nabers is also dealing with a concussion that could sideline him for Week 5. Robinson is a PPR scam for the ages.
Others receiving votes: Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, Tre Tucker, Jordan Whittington
Tight End
Tucker Kraft, Packers (4%)
Kraft’s role stabilized in Week 4 with an 86 percent route rate and a 14 percent target share. He has a 15 percent target share over the past three weeks. Kraft and the Packers get a game versus the Rams with a 48-point total in Week 5 and then have dates with the Cardinals and Texans in the following weeks. Kraft is a good bet to find the end zone multiple times over the next month.
Cade Otton, Bucs (15%)
Otton has earned an impressive 21 percent target share over the past two weeks. With Baker Mayfield dropping back 91 times, that role has been good for 13 receptions and 97 yards. Otton runs all of the routes on a good passing attack that throws the ball often. He is pushing for a TE1 ranking moving forward.
Others receiving votes: Taysom Hill, Erick All, Colby Parkinson
