For the most part, I will only be including players who are rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo fantasy football leagues in this article. I’ll make a few exceptions for players close to 50 percent who should be far closer to 100 percent. A player’s roster percentage will appear in parentheses next to their name. Denny Carter is mercifully handling the kicker section of this article which will be added Monday evenings. Updates from Monday Night Football will be added on Tuesday mornings. Be sure to check out the Waiver Wire Q&A Monday at 6PM ET.
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud, Texans (47%)
This is your last chance to get Stroud. His roster rate has steadily risen to start the year. After 306 yards and two scores versus the Steelers, it will soar over 50% on this run of waivers. His 1,212 passing yards are the second-most through four games for a rookie in NFL history.
Texans’ rookie QB C.J. Stroud has 1,212 passing yards this season and surpassed Andrew Luck and his 1,208 passing yards for the second-most passing yards by a player in his first four NFL games. Only Cam Newton with 1,386 had more. Stroud is the second quarterback in NFL history…
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 1, 2023
He ranks 14th in EPA per play and third in yards per attempt. In Week 5, he gets an Atlanta defense that ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback allowed.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (50%)
Stafford enters Week 5 as the QB18. That’s nothing to write home about, but it will get you through the first week of byes. The most glaring issue with his game is a lack of touchdowns. He ranks second in the league in passing yards and 25th in passing touchdowns. Stafford’s touchdown rate is unsustainably low and should rebound in a likely shootout with the Eagles this week.
Sam Howell, Commanders (18%)
Howell has not been great in his first season as a starter, but the Commanders are letting him sling it. Through four weeks, Washington has a top-five pass rate over expected.
In Week 5, he gets the second-best matchup for a quarterback: the Chicago Bears. Chicago ranks 31st in EPA per dropback, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt allowed.
Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals (5%)
For the truly desperate, Dobbs is the QB14 before Monday Night Football. He has three games with more than 40 rushing yards and has yet to throw his first interception. It’s a low-ceiling play, but with bye weeks hitting for the first time this year, Dobbs will be the best option available to some fantasy managers.
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Running Back
Jaylen Warren, Steelers (55%)
It’s an incredibly light week at running back, so be sure to check your wire for Warren, even though he is rostered in slightly more than half of all Yahoo leagues. Among all running backs, he ranks fourth in the NFL in target share and first in targets per route run. The one caveat with Warren is that Najee Harris is besting him in nearly every rushing metric, so he is only viable as a PPR option.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (3%)
McLaughlin entered the league as a UDFA this year. The NCAA’s all-time leading rusher stood out in Broncos camp and their preseason games. Among the 64 running backs who saw at least 15 carries in the preseason, McLaughlin ranked first in Pro Football Focus rushing grade. He made the roster and served as a depth option for three games. In Week 4, a hip injury to Javonte Williams put McLaughlin on the field for a third of his offense’s snaps. He turned 10 touches into 104 yards and a touchdown.
He's shifty. 💨#DENvsCHI | 📺: CBS or @ParamountPlus pic.twitter.com/EYmbvX0Y2W
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 1, 2023
McLaughlin is only on the fantasy radar if Williams misses time, and that’s not a foregone conclusion. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Williams “is not expected to miss much if any time.” Even if Williams does miss a week or two, McLaughlin would only register as an RB3 at first. However, he could show enough to carve out a minor role for himself even when Williams returns. McLaughlin could also earn a higher cut of the backfield in Williams’ absence based on Samaje Perine’s underwhelming play.
Tyjae Spears, Titans (24%)
Spears continues to hover around the bottom of this list as a discount version of Jaylen Warren. Given how long he has remained below a 50% roster rate, you don’t need to spend more than a few FAAB dollars to get him. Spears ranks eighth in the NFL in target share and seventh in targets per route run. He is the only running back outside of Derrick Henry with a carry for Tennessee this year.
Latavius Murray, Bills (10%)
For the first time this year, Murray led the Bills’ running back in routes. He ran a route on 45 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Allen looked his way twice and he reeled in both targets for 24 yards. The twist in this game was that James Cook finally operated as the Bills’ primary goal line back. Murray, Cook, and Damien Harris have all led the backfield in carries inside the five once this year. Murray needs to reclaim that role to provide usable fantasy numbers, but there is a world in which he handles half of the routes and the majority of the goal line touches. He is worth a stash in deep leagues.
Wide Receiver
Michael Wilson, Cardinals (2%)
Wilson entered Week 4 having run a route on three-quarters of his team’s dropbacks. He had quietly amassed air yards shares north of 30 percent in all three of his appearances. Wilson finally capitalized on his role with a 7/76/2 receiving line versus the 49ers in Week 4.
Michael Wilson through four games: 14 catches, 237 yards, 2 TD
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) October 2, 2023
DeAndre Hopkins through four games: 18 catches, 216 yards, 0 TD
The Cardinals rank 18th in points per game and ninth in EPA per play. Wilson, running as the clear WR2 on this offense, will rank as a WR4 going forward.
Jayden Reed, Packers (24%)
Reed ranks 19th in the NFL in air yards, third in red zone targets, and 18th in end zone targets. He is 29th in yards per route run and 34th in targets per route run. Reed has been efficient on a per-route basis and is receiving high-leverage opportunities out of the gate. I expect his role to grow throughout the year and possibly surpass that of Romeo Doubs. He will remain on the WR5 track until that happens, but there is a path for him to push for WR3 numbers down the stretch.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (42%)
Shaheed’s two highest games by route participation have come in the past two weeks. Not so coincidentally, both games have seen the Saints played undermanned at the tight end position. Shaheed earned a season-high in targets (seven) last week and gets a New England defense that just lost their top corner, Christian Gonzalez, in Week 5.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (9%)
Samuel ranks second on his team in receptions (17) and yards (178). Among receivers with at least 15 targets, he ranks eighth in the NFL in catchable target rate. As previously mentioned, his opponent this week is a dream spot for quarterbacks and their pass-catchers. The Bears have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. I only view Samuel as a one-week rental, but he could put up FLEX-worthy numbers versus Chicago.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys (19%)
After a slow start to the season, Gallup is finally getting involved in the Dallas offense. Through two weeks, he had a seven percent target share and was being targeted on eight percent of his routes. Over the past two weeks, his target share is up to 18 percent and his TPRR is at .21. He has 11 catches for 152 yards over that stretch. Like most wideouts this week, Gallup is only worth a few FAAB dollars, but he could be a FLEX-worthy option throughout the remainder of the season.
Tight End
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (26%)
After a brief cooldown in Week 3, Dobbs threw some coal in the Zach Ertz PPR engine and got it firing on all cylinders for Week 4. Ertz ran a route on 87 percent of his team’s dropbacks and earned a 24 percent target share last week. That was with his highest aDOT (9.4) of the season. He caught six passes for 53 yards and will close the week as a TE1. As long as your league assigns some value to receptions, Ertz is in the TE1 conversation.
Luke Musgrave, Packers (36%)
Musgrave left the Packers’ Thursday Night Football game early with a concussion and didn’t return. Heading into TNF, he sat at 11th in targets and third in air yards among tight ends. He gets a tremendously long turnaround from Thursday to Monday this week, meaning he should be able to clear concussion protocol in time for his Week 5 date with the Raiders. He would be the top priority off waivers at tight end if we knew for sure he would be able to play in Week 5.
Kicker (Presented by Denny Carter)
Riley Patterson, Lions (36%)
Patterson is in a proverbial “smash spot” this week against the down-bad Panthers. The Lions should enjoy four quarters of neutral and positive game script, they have the week’s third highest implied total (27.5 points), and the Panthers are allowing more red zone possessions than almost any other team.
With multiple field goal tries in each of the past two games, Patterson is quickly becoming a must-start fantasy play. Being attached to a good offense doesn’t hurt. Get Patterson and play him until and unless things go sideways for Detroit.
Matt Gay, Colts (14%)
The Colts should have little trouble matriculating the ball against a poor Tennessee defense this week. The Titans have allowed multiple field goal attempts in three of four games -- the only exception being Evan McPherson trying only one field goal in blowout game script last Sunday.
Gay, who has made six of his seven field goal tries this season, is as solid an option as there is on the wire in Week 5.
Joey Slye, Commanders (1%)
Any kicker taking on the Bears is in play for fantasy purposes. That’s analytics, in case you were wondering. Slye, who has multiple field goal attempts in both of Washington’s wins this season, should benefit from good game script and a Commanders team with a shockingly high 25.5-point implied total.
Kickers have managed at least nine fantasy points in three of four games against Chicago this season. Slye, who has never missed arm day at the gym, is a nice floor option, at worst.
