Waivers are back! Every week I’ll break down the biggest adds off the wire on Monday afternoon with updates after MNF. Most of the players will be available in over half of all Yahoo leagues with some special exceptions. After each positional breakdown, I will include an “others receiving votes” section for players not worth a full writeup who you may need to add in deep leagues. Denny Carter is graciously adding his kicker adds to the article as well.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield, Bucs (34% Yahoo Roster Rate)
The big question for the Bucs heading into the season was whether Baker Mayfield could keep up his strong efficiency numbers after losing quarterback guru Dave Canales. He answered that with an emphatic yes in Week 1. Mayfield easily led all quarterbacks with .689 EPA per play. He was also top-five in PFF passing grade, yards per attempt, and completion percent over expected. Mayfield was the QB2 on the week with 289 yards and four touchdowns. He now gets a date with a Detroit defense that ranked 21st in EPA per dropback allowed in Week 1.
Derek Carr, Saints (10%)
This ain’t your daddy’s Saints offense no more.
Yards per pass attempt and use of Motion per dropback in Week 1 per @TruMediaSports is pretty telling... https://t.co/ZIKi0oZ07L pic.twitter.com/QFAqre4uyi
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 9, 2024
The Saints led the league in both efficiency and volume of pre-snap motion throws. Carr also got the benefit of play-action on 40 percent of his dropbacks. The only quarterbacks who used play-action more frequently were Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. PFF graded Carr as their No. 3 passer on play-fake throws in Week 1. Klint Kubiak putting even a modest amount of effort into crafting a modern passing attack naturally turned Carr into an MVP candidate.
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Justin Fields, Steelers (13%)
Russell Wilson is dealing with a lingering calf issue and missed Week 1. The Steelers are now preparing for Justin Fields to be their Week 2 starter versus the Broncos, though Wilson has not been ruled out yet. Even with Wilson as an option, the Steelers are extremely likely to give Fields his second start given his preparation advantage over Wilson. Fields saw four designed carries and ran a total of 14 times for 57 yards in Week 1. His rushing alone puts him in the QB1 conversation for the upcoming week. If he goes 2-0 as a starter to open the year, Wilson may not have a job to come back to.
Others receiving votes: Sam Darnold, Geno Smith
Running Back
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (37%)
Sans Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin stepped into a larger role in the Denver offense, taking Javonte Williams to a carries standstill at eight. He was also targeted five times, though his 13 routes were only good for a 21 percent route rate. The usage by touches was strong, but the underwhelming route rate and Denver’s dreadful offense should reasonably temper our expectations. Still, McLaughlin is the highest-floor bet on the waiver wire this week from a 17-game outlook.
Jordan Mason, 49ers (58%)
The 49ers shockingly made Chrisitan McCaffrey inactive for Week 1 because of his lingering calf issue. Further reports have suggested he isn’t likely to play next week either. In his absence, backup Jordan Mason seemingly played the McCaffrey role, totaling 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over the Jets. Mason is rostered in a majority of leagues, but his ownership rate should be 100%. He will rank as an RB1 for as long as McCaffrey remains sidelined.
Alexander Mattison, Raiders (4%)
Zamir White drew the start in Week 1 and easily out-carried Alexander Mattison, but the latter was Antonio Pierce’s first choice on passing downs and the Raiders found themselves in that situation a lot. Per Pro Football Focus’s Nathan Jahnke, Mattison played on 10-of-11 two-minute drill snaps and saw all nine reps on third down. He parlayed that role into four catches on six targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders are nearly 10-point dogs to the Ravens this coming week. That should mean plenty of check-downs for Mattison once again.
Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (6%)
I initially saved Bigsby for the “others receiving votes” section thinking he wouldn’t take Travis Etienne to a carries standstill on a weekly basis. I still don’t see that as likely, but his efficiency metrics dwarfed those of Etienne in Week 1.
Bigsby cemented his value as a strong handcuff option in Week 1 and we can’t rule out a 1B role for the second-year back.
J.K. Dobbins, Chargers (49%)
J.K. Dobbins just makes the cut for this article by being available in slightly more than half of all Yahoo leagues. He split the LA backfield with Gus Edwards evenly, with Edwards seeing 11 carries to Dobbins’ 10. Dobbins broke off this 61-yard run and finished the day with 135 yards and a touchdown.
jk dobbins the man that u are
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 8, 2024
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/YZGjq4cXYm
He also served as the primary back on passing downs. Rookie Kimani Vidal was a healthy scratch. The Chargers are a balanced team with an elite offensive line and face an FCS-level opponent in the Panthers next week.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (47%)
Charbonnet played behind Ken Walker for most of Week 1, but Walker suffered an abdominal injury late in the game, allowing Charbonnet to rack up 10 touches for 41 yards and a receiving touchdown. Charbonnet won’t have much fantasy value when Walker is healthy, but his status for Week 2 is now up in the air.
Justice Hill, Ravens (2%)
Last year, Tyjae Spears saw exactly as many snaps as Derrick Henry, caught 52 passes, and finished his rookie season as an RB3.
#Ravens HC John Harbaugh on Justice Hill:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 1, 2024
“He is a high-caliber running back… I think he’s gonna play a lot.”
Harbaugh has an 85% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak pic.twitter.com/yvg904IGR1
After being talked up by John Harbaugh during the summer, Justice Hill played that same role for the Ravens in Week 1. He led all running backs with eight targets, six of which he caught for 52 yards. The Ravens are going to stomp the Raiders next week, likely rendering Hill useless for fantasy purposes. But matchups with the Cowboys and Bills in the following two weeks should keep him in the RB3/4 range.
Others receiving votes: Bucky Irving, Emanuel Wilson, Jaylen Wright
Wide Receiver
Demarcus Robinson, Rams (6%)
Nothing is more terrifying than someone predicting doom and being instantly proven correct. Gregg Rosenthal was eerily skeptical of the best rookie of all time and then Puka Nacua went out and immediately injured his knee.
interesting 🤔🤔 line here from @greggrosenthal re: Puka Nacua on the latest NFL Dailyhttps://t.co/fOtb5lq0xv pic.twitter.com/zqwQ7mqdeU
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 28, 2024
Cooper Kupp was targeted 21 times in Week 1. Puka Nacua has since been placed on injured reserve, sidelining him for at least four weeks. Kupp is locked in as a top-five wide receiver as long as Nacua is out and there are plenty of routes to go around for the remaining wideouts. Demarcus Robinson was already running as the Rams’ WR3 and should see an uptick in targets.
Despite Jordan Whittington receiving loads of hype over the summer, Tyler Johnson played ahead of him after Nacua went down. Johnson can be stashed in deeper leagues, but his body of work in the NFL (or lack thereof) suggests we don’t need to prioritize him on the waiver wire.
Devaughn Vele, Broncos (0%)
The Broncos have a lot to work through on offense…
Bo Nix averaged 3.3 yards per attempt on 42 passes today.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 9, 2024
That is tied for the 6th-lowest YPA in any game with at least 40 pass attempts since the merger https://t.co/LIbae0YL6f
However, when we see a rookie getting opportunities early, it’s a clear spot to get ahead of the curve on. Devaughn Vele is that guy. Vele balled out in training camp and appears to have passed both Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims on the depth chart. He ran a route on 61 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks and was targeted eight times, all of which were caught.
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (10%)
Pending Monday’s game, Wan’Dale Robinson ranked second among all receivers in targets with a dozen looks from Daniel Jones. He brought down six for 44 yards and added 14 more yards on a rush attempt. Robinson is exclusively a slot player who isn’t running every route for the Giants, but he gets targeted when he’s out there and the Giants are going to be passing plenty this year. Robinson is a good bet to be a PPR scam WR3 going forward.
Greg Dortch, Cardinals (5%)
Arizona’s Greg Dortch is a similar bet to Robinson. He plays in the slot. He comes off the field. But he earns a lot of targets anyway. Dortch saw eight looks on 31 attempts for Kyler Murray, giving him a 26 percent target share. Arizona’s offense looked more than functional versus the Bills while the Giants were obviously a trainwreck. Even if Robinson sees a few more looks than Dortch, Dortch’s odds of finding the end zone are far higher.
Others receiving votes: Alec Pierce, Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins
Tight End
Isaiah Likely, Ravens (28%)
Just as we all expected, Week 1’s TE1 was…Mark Andrews’ backup. Likely put on a show versus the Chiefs to the tune of 26.1 PPR points.
ISAIAH LIKELY SO GOOD
— NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2024
📺: #Kickoff2024 on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/wusReXzb9I
Likely finished the day with a 9/111/1 receiving line on 12 targets. He ran a route on 69 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks and split his reps between an inline position and the slot. Unless he supplants Andrews entirely, Likely won’t be able to max out his routes. He was also a significant beneficiary of Andrews being double-covered and facing cornerbacks at absurd rates.
After seeing this thread from Andy, decided to look at the data.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 6, 2024
Mark Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes in this game than any of his other games from 2021-2023. https://t.co/jsLWMcXu7J
Still, the Ravens don’t appear to have much going on at WR2. Likely is their best bet to fill that role. For FAAB bidding, I’m still wary of Andrews rebounding and Likely posting TE2 numbers going forward. I would max out at a third of my FAAB budget, which probably means I won’t get much of him.
Tucker Kraft, Packers (2%)
Luke Musgrave played ahead of Tucker Kraft as a rookie but the latter drew tremendous praise from beat writers late in the offseason and consistently got reps with the first-team offense during training camp. In Week 1, Kraft dusted Musgrave, running 30 routes to Musgrave’s eight. Kraft ran a route on 79 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. Love is expected to miss a few weeks with a knee injury, so Kraft may be stuck waiting for his superstar quarterback to return. If you can afford the roster spot and need a long-term solution at tight end, Kraft is your guy.
Juwan Johnson, Saints (3%)
The Saints used multiple tight ends in Week 1 and Foster Moreau was ultimately the biggest winner. He ranked second among all Saints skill position players in offensive snaps at 51, just one behind Chris Olave. He caught four passes for 43 yards and a score. He unfortunately suffered a concussion late in the game and his status for Week 2 is questionable at best. That opens the door for Juwan Johnson, who turned in a usable fantasy outing of his own, to dominate the tight end snaps this week. He caught two passes for 26 yards and scored once. If Johnson subsumes Moreau’s role into his own, he could push for low-end TE1 numbers.
Others receiving votes: Colby Parkinson