Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
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Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
Amari Cooper - WR, Cleveland Browns
I know this is a wild call because Cooper is averaging just 10.6 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, but it’s really all about crossing our fingers and hoping for a quarterback change in Cleveland. Cooper’s usage continues to be elite. He’s running a route on 94% of dropbacks with a 28% target share and 48% of the team’s air yards and has seen at least eight targets in each game this season. However, he’s also seen just a 55% catchable target rate with Deshaun Watson continuing to airmail him when he gets open deep. Cooper has also been unlucky, getting tackled at the two-yard line in the second half on Sunday, so it could have been a much bigger day and would have made him a bit harder to trade for.
An absurd 45% of passes directed at Amari Cooper have qualified as "off target" this season.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 8, 2024
We haven't seen an off-target rate that high for a player with 40+ targets since at least prior to 2011.
However, the big issue here is that Watson is terrible. There’s no way around it. Deshaun Watson has recorded some of the worst quarterback performances of the season; yet, the Browns continue to stick with him because they sunk so much money into that awful contract. At some point, the Browns will either have to turn the reins over to Jameis Winston or Watson will be suspended for his latest legal issues. There’s also the possibility that the Browns will trade Cooper, and rumors right now suggest that they’re only looking for a third-round pick in return. Perhaps Cooper would appeal to the Chiefs or Bills, who are each looking for a high-end target earner. Either avenue would be a big boost to Cooper’s value, and you can get him for a reasonable cost right now.
According to Fantasy Calc, which is a website that tracks trades across multiple fantasy platforms, Cooper was traded straight up for Tony Pollard this week, traded straight up for Keon Coleman, and traded straight up for Wan’Dale Robinson. I don’t think those last two would get accepted in most formats, but it’s clear that people are souring on Cooper and even if you’re just adding him to stash him on your bench, that’s not a lot to give up to get a receiver who could explode with a new quarterback.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers
The tight end landscape is a mess right now. Through five weeks of the season, only six tight ends are averaging over 10 points per game in PPR scoring and one of those is Isiah Likely, who is only getting there on crazy touchdown production. Yet, sitting fourth overall on that list in Tucker Kraft, who is averaging 11.2 points per game in PPR scoring and has been tremendous over the last two weeks. Perhaps some of that has to do with Christian Watson being hurt, but I think a lot more of that has to do with Jordan Love being back, so I’m buying into what Kraft is doing. Is he going to continue to score 20 fantasy points per game? No, but the usage is great.
On the season, Kraft has run a route on 77% of dropbacks and seen a 15% target share, but that has increased to an 84% route rate and 18% target share with Jordan Love under center. Luke Musgrave is seeing just a 29% route participation rate over his last two weeks, so Kraft is the clear-cut TE1 in a Green Bay offense that is going to throw the ball a fair amount. Romeo Doubs may not play another snap in Green Bay, Christian Watson has a history of injuries, and Dontayvion Wicks has plenty of talent but a lot of inconsistency in his game. I believe Kraft could easily finish as a top-six or seven tight end this season, and you can still get him for a fair price in trades.
According to Fantasy Calc, this week Kraft was traded straight up for Rachaad White, straight up for Evan Engram, who is set to return soon, traded straight up for Dontayvion Wicks, and traded straight up for Keenan Allen. I would probably do all of those trades. I think you could also find yourself in a situation where you snagged Tank Bigsby off of waivers but are in a good spot with your running backs, so swapping Bigsby, who will likely always split snaps with Etienne, for Kraft could be an interesting avenue to make your starting lineup better if you needed a tight end upgrade.
Brian Thomas - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Listen, at this point, it’s probably going to be hard to trade for Brian Thomas Jr., but that’s why he’s in the buy high section. He has put up over 22 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks and is the top fantasy receiver in Jacksonville. I think it’s likely he’ll be a top-15 wide receiver the rest of the way, and that’s where the buy high recommendation comes in. There may still be leagues where people think this is a blip, and the rookie wide receiver will go back to the 12-15 point PPR scoring he did to start the season.
Just this week, according to Fantasy Calc, Thomas was traded for a package of Chuba Hubbard and Jordan Addison. He was traded straight up for Davante Adams, and he was traded straight up for George Pickens, among many other trades. I would do all of those trades.
Thomas is running a route on 79% of dropbacks and seeing a 22% target share with 29% of the team’s air yards. Gabe Davis is a completely non-factor, so it’s just Thomas and Christian Kirk in a Jacksonville offense that figures to be trailing and throwing the ball often. I don’t care if his value is high right now, I’m more than happy to try and get Thomas on my rosters.
Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons
Right now, there are likely fantasy managers who are looking to “sell high” on Mooney after his big game on Thursday night and his strong start to the season, but I’d be trying to buy instead. I featured Mooney in my Post Hype Sleepers article from the preseason, but even I didn’t expect he’d be this good. In that article, I said “Zac Robinson should install a far more pass-heavy system than the one the Falcons were using under Arthur Smith who wanted to run the ball and use lots of two tight end sets. That should benefit all the receiving weapons in Atlanta, especially considering they’ll be catching passes from Cousins, who ranks first in the NFL in accuracy on passes 20+ yards downfield over the last four seasons, per Sharp Football. With Mooney’s deep speed, that could lead to a connection that gives us some big boom weeks in fantasy football.”
But here’s the thing, in that article I said Mooney would be the fourth option in the Falcons passing attack when he is really operating ahead of Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts in terms of targets. Through five weeks, Mooney is running a route on 97% of dropbacks with a 24% target share and 45% of the team’s air yards. He’s on the WR2/3 border in fantasy leagues so if you can get him for less than that, you should.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price - a strike price - if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders
With Davante Adams sidelined and likely leaving Las Vegas, Meyers has emerged as the clear top target with an elite role from a usage standpoint. Over the last two weeks without Adams on the field, Meyers has run a route on 99% of dropbacks and seen a 32% target share and 40% of the team’s air yards with 28% targets per route run. His 9.8 average depth of target is not elite, but that also leads to a 68% catchable target rate, which is much higher than a lot of the other receivers. That usage has led to just 11.6 points per game in PPR formats over the last two weeks, but I think bigger days could be ahead with the Raiders looking likely to be playing from behind often. I don’t believe Meyers is going to turn into some league-winner for you, but I think he’s a legit WR3 in PPR and likely even half-PPR formats with Davante gone.
This week, Meyers was traded straight up for Jerry Jeudy, straight up for Ladd McConkey, and straight up for Jerome Ford, so you can still get Meyers without having to give up a lot. If you have a struggling tight end like Dalton Kincaid or David Njoku but were able to luck into Tucker Kraft on the waiver wire, you could deal either tight end for Meyers, which the Fantasy Life Trade analyzer believes is a clear win for the manager getting Meyers.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Tank Dell - WR, Houston Texans
Dell has disappointed so far this season, averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring in the four games he’s been healthy. Despite that, he has been repeatedly featured as a “buy low” target across the industry because we know he’s a talented player. With Nico Collins likely sidelined for a week or two with a hamstring injury, there are many people who may be expecting Dell to go off. Let me present another possible avenue: this presents the perfect opportunity to try and get good value for Dell.
Last week, when Collins left with an injury, Dell ran the second-most routes on the Texans, with an 86% route rate, trailing only Stefon Diggs. However, Xavier Hutchinson filled Nico Collins’ role and not only ran almost the same number of routes that Collins usually does and posted the same targets per route run as Dell at 11%. In fact, Dell saw just an 11% target share in the game with an aDOT of 5.0. Now, I’m not suggesting that Dell isn’t going to have some good games with Collins sidelined, but I am saying that the Texans will get Hutchinson on the field a lot, and Dell’s spike in route rate and target share will likely regress again when Nico Collins returns, which should only be in one or two weeks, according to reports. If you can trade Dell away for a player who can help you over the remainder of the season then it would likely be worth it, even if Dell has a good game or two over the next two weeks.
EDIT: WITH NICO COLLINS NOW PLACED ON THE IR, WE KNOW DELL WILL BE GIVEN AT LEAST FOUR WEEKS TO MAKE A BIGGER IMPACT ON THE TEXANS OFFENSE. IN THAT CASE, YOU COULD WAIT FOR HIM TO HAVE A BIG GAME TO EXPLORE THE TRADE MARKET ON HIM, BUT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF BUZZ RIGHT NOW ON WHAT DELL “MIGHT” DO OVER THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS, SO I STILL THINK IT’S A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST SEE WHAT YOU CAN GET FOR HIM.
For example, according to Fantasy Calc, Dell was traded straight up this week for Puka Nacua, was traded with Bria Robinson Jr. for Jahmyr Gibbs, was traded with Austin Ekeler for Jameson Williams, and was traded with Zach Ertz for Christian Kirk. Those are all trades I would do in a heartbeat, and I particularly like the angle of the Nacua trade because the manager who has Puka stashed may be struggling and not be able to wait for him to return. You can give them the satisfaction of the immediate Dell production and get the future production of Nacua, if your team is in a good spot.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills
I’m not really sure if you can get much for Kincaid, but with the TE position a barren wasteland across the NFL right now, there may be fantasy managers in your league willing to buy into Kincaid’s preseason hype. As a Bills fan, I’m no longer one of them. Kincaid saw a 20% target share with Khalil Shakir sidelined in Week 5, but he failed to do much with it and was also charged with two drops. Additionally, he was blown up as a blocker on two screen passes, leading to big losses for the Bills offense, which seems like a surefire way to ensure that Dawson Knox sees more snaps.
Kincaid is certainly being used more than most tight ends this season. He has a 67% route participation rate with a 19% target share and 18% of the team’s air yards, but he’s averaging just 7.5 points per game in PPR formats. Some of that might be the fault of the Buffalo offense that can’t seem to get their tight ends involved, but if Kincaid is not able to carve out a major role with the Bills’ receiver room as it currently stands then how can we feel confident he will if the team goes out and adds a receiver via trade?
Obviously, if you haven’t been able to add any startable tight end on waivers then you’re not moving on from Kincaid, but if you do have an alternative, you can still get some value by trading away Kincaid. According to Fantasy Calc, on Tuesday Kincaid was traded straight up for Najee Harris, traded straight up for Raheem Mostert, traded straight up for Travis Etienne, and traded with Tony Pollard for Drake London to name a few moves so there are still people who believe we’re going to see a spike in production for Kincaid.
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Straight Sell
Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts
I had Pittman as one of my stay away picks coming into the season and nothing in the first five weeks has changed that for me. Pittman is averaging just 6.3 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, and it hasn’t really mattered who is playing quarterback. Pittman is still running a route on 87% of dropbacks and seeing a 25% target share, so perhaps you can sell another fantasy manager on his role, but I don’t love buying into a wide receiver on a poor offense who is only working in the intermediate areas of the field. His value gets even worse with Anthony Richardson on the field because that’s the area where Richardson has the hardest time completing passes.
This week, Pittman was traded with Nick Chubb for Davante Adams, which is a deal I like because we have no idea how effective Chubb will be after that knee injury. Pittman was also traded with Jaylen Warren for Terry McLaurin, which I would do in a heartbeat, and traded with Chuba Hubbard for Courtland Sutton and Kenneth Walker, which is another deal I like since Hubbard’s value will be muddled when Jonathon Brooks returns. If you wait any longer to try and deal Pittman away, there may not be enough value left on the market.
