Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
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Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
Tee Higgins - WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Admittedly, I’m not quite sure we can call it a “dip” with Higgins since he’s coming off a strong Week 4 showing, but he missed the first two weeks and is averaging just 7.2 points per game in half-PPR formats over the last two weeks, so I think we can squeeze him into this section. Since Higgins came back in Week 3, he has run a route on 91% of dropbacks and seen a 23% target share with a 22% targets per route run. He also has 39% of the team’s air yards, which is more than Ja’Mar Chase. Of course, Chase has averaged 21.4 points in half-PPR formats in those two weeks, which is significantly better than Higgins.
Some people may have soured on Higgins due to the Bengals’ poor start or his off-season holdout, but there are two ways I can see him returning plenty of value. For starters, given his role in this offense, he could simply re-emerge as a WR2 for fantasy leagues if the Bengals’ offense starts to hit its stride. However, if they don’t, and his production remains limited, there’s a good chance that the Bengals trade him away since he is set to be a free agent and is highly unlikely to return to Cincinnati. In that case, he would likely be the top pass-catcher on whatever team he ends up with and that would make for a big boost to his fantasy value.
According to FantasyCalc, which is a database of trades made across all league types, Higgins was traded on Tuesday straight up for Zay Flowers and straight up for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was also traded straight up for Jordan Addison, Khalil Shakir, and Zach Charbonnet, so there are plenty of leagues where his value has plummeted and it can’t hurt to see if one of those leagues is yours.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, San Francisco 49ers
Yes, I’m going to leave Aiyuk on here for another week. Given the pushback I got when I had Aiyuk here last week, it’s clear that people are just “done with him,” and I would imagine that continues after this past week. Even with Deebo Samuel back, Aiyuk ran a route on 90% of dropbacks. He saw just a 19% target share but 24% of the air yards in a game where the 49ers didn’t really need to keep their foot on the gas. This is also the second straight game that Aiyuk has seen the lowest catchable target rate of any of the wide receivers at just 40% this past week. So AIyuk is on the field all the time and running plenty of routes. He’s not seeing as many catchable targets as the other receivers and has not had the fantasy success, but we finished as a top 15 receiver in half-PPR leagues in each of the last two seasons, so we have to expect that those routes and targets will begin to turn into production.
According to Fantasy Calc, Aiyuk was traded straight up for Chase Brown, straight up for George Pickens, and for a package of Rome Odunze and Michael Pittman Jr., among other deals, so the value across the market may be low enough to still get great value in adding Aiyuk now.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know it’s going to be hard to trade for Kelce in your leagues, but any idea that he would be in for a down season is likely out the window after the injury to Rashee Rice. In Week 4, Kelce ran a route on 94% of dropbacks and saw 38% of the team targets. That’s insane usage on par with when he was the clear TE1 in fantasy football. He had not seen above 17% of the targets in any of the first three games as Rice had become the clear primary target. I think we’re back to the point where Kelce is TE1 but he’s still valued in a similar range with guys like Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, or maybe even Brock Bowers.
According to Fantasy Calc, Kelce was traded straight up for Christian Kirk this week. He was also traded straight up for Kyle Pitts (what!?), traded for a package of Dalton Kincaid and Raheem Mostert, and also traded for a package of Jake Ferguson and Tyjae Spears, so there are plenty of leagues where you can still get Kelce at a bargain price. Maybe yours is one of those.
Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Over the first three weeks of the season, Chase Brown played on just 24% of the team’s snaps, took 27% of the carries, and ran a route on 12% of dropbacks. The Bengals also lost all three games. They came out in Week 4 and gave Brown 42% of the snaps compared to 58% for Zack Moss. Brown also saw 52% of the rushing attempts and ran a route on 33% of the dropbacks. He responded by rushing for 80 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries and even had two of the three carries inside the five-yard line. He has more juice than Moss and is more likely to gain chunk yardage for the Bengals, so this feels like a situation where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. I expect Brown to continue to get more work and simply believe he’s the better back in Cincinnati.
According to Fantasy Calc, Chase Brown was traded on Tuesday, straight up for Zach Charbonnet, straight up for Baker Mayfield, straight up for Caleb Williams, and straight up for Roschon Johnson, so there are a lot of leagues out there where you can still get Brown at a good price. The Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer suggests the Brown side of that Mayfield trade is a clear winner, but there may be fantasy managers who need a quarterback and would be interested in Baker ditto for the Caleb Williams trade, so there are multiple paths for adding Brown to your team.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price - a strike price - if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Romeo Doubs - WR, Green Bay Packers
We had Doubs on here last week, but now Christian Watson will likely be out for the next two to four weeks, so that makes Doubs even more valuable. Yes, Dontayvion Wicks had the big game in Week 4 and is certainly a higher upside play than Doubs, but we love Doubs’ role in this offense. Through three weeks, Doubs has run a route on 90% of dropbacks and is second to Christian Watson with a 14.4 aDOT. The team is using both Watson and Doubs almost every snap on the perimeter and bringing in Jayden Reed from the slot when they go to three-wide sets. That’s not a formula that has worked with Malik Willis under center, but I believe it will with Jordan Love slinging the ball around. Now, there are still a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, so Doubs won’t be a consistent fantasy scorer, but I think he’ll have enough good weeks to be a value on your roster.
According to Fantasy Calc, Doubs was traded straight up for Demarcus Robinson this week. He was traded straight up for Zach Charbonnet, traded straight up for Alexander Mattison, straight up for Tucker Kraft, and straight up for Kareem Hunt. I prefer Doubs in all of those.
Xavier Legette - WR, Carolina Panthers
With Adam Thielen sidelined, it was Xavier Legette who stepped up into the WR2 role in Carolina. He ran a route on 88% of dropbacks, saw a 24% target share with 89% catchable targets, and had a 24% target per route run rate. That is elite usage and led to six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Now, he did have a few bad drops and he had only one year of elite production
in college, so there are some kinks to iron out in his game, but he’s a talented player who is now in a great role. Even with the Panthers playing better with Andy Dalton under center, this is a team that figures to trail often, which will mean lots of passing volume. That’s great news for Legette, so now is the time to buy in.
Tank Bigsby - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars running back situation is tough to figure out because we don’t have much of a sample size this season with both running backs healthy. We had Week 1 where Tank Bigsby had 50% of the rushes and played 34% of the snaps, but then he got hurt, missed Week 2, and played a limited amount of snaps in Week 3. Then we had Travis Etienne battling a shoulder injury in Week 4 which allowed Bigsby to get the vast majority of the work in the first quarter and then additional work later on in the game. On the season, Bigsby had taken 31% of the rushes despite playing on just 23% of the snaps. He has also looked like the better back and has shown far more explosion than we saw last season.
Travis Etienne is a good pass-catcher, so he’s going to stay on the field much like Rachaad White in Tampa Bay; however, we’re starting to see the Jaguars give Bigsby more work, and he also saw 67% of the carries inside the five-yard line in Week 4 with Etienne not getting a single one. If Bigsby is taking a third of the overall carries now and also getting goal line work then that’s going to give him FLEX appeal in positive matchups, but that’s also assuming he doesn’t take more work away from Etienne. I think there’s a clear avenue for Bigsby to take even more carries and make this more of a 60/40 split while also seeing the carries inside the five or ten-yard line and that can be a valuable role. Yet, this week he was traded straight up for Ty Chandler, straight up for Zach Charbonnet, straight up for Alexander Mattison, and straight up for Mark Andrews. If I needed a RB, I’d rather have Bigsby in all of those scenarios.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets
Yes, I understand that it’s wild to suggest trading Breece Hall, so I want to make it clear that I’m only suggesting you see what the market is in your league. Many people viewed Hall as the clear top running back fantasy coming into the year because of his unquestioned workload, but we can’t ignore how Braelon Allen has changed this backfield. On the season, Hall has handled 64% of the team’s rushes with Allen taking 29%; however, over the last two weeks, Hall’s rush share has fallen to 53% while Allen has taken 39% of the carries. Allen also took 50% of the short down and distance naps on Sunday and with Breece Hall getting stuffed at the goal line multiple times, the Jets came out and said that they need to give the 235-pound Allen more work in that area. So Hall is already ceding a third of the overall carries to Allen, but if he also loses some of the work inside the 10-yard line, it’s going to hurt his overall fantasy ceiling.
According to Fantasy Calc, on Tuesday, Breece Hall was traded straight up for Justin Jefferson, he was traded with Michael Pittman for James Cook and Malik Nabers, and he was traded for a package of Sam Darnold and Jahmyr Gibbs. That Darnold and Gibbs one is interesting and something I think we can do as fantasy managers. With Gibbs having a bye this week, the manager who has him may be scrambling at running back. If your team is in good shape, you could offer Hall for this type of package, which the Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer says is a clear win for you, and perhaps suffer in Week 5 to set yourself up for success in the weeks ahead. Taking advantage of bye weeks in that way is a nice strategy in any trade discussion.
Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers
Much like the Breece Hall situation, I like Josh Jacobs, so I don’t actively want to get rid of him, but the role is concerning. Even with rookie MarShawn Lloyd on the IR, the Packers and Matt LaFleur have made it clear they don’t want Jacobs to be a workhorse. over the last two weeks (one in a leading gamescript and one in a trailing one), Jacobs has not played over 61% of the snaps or seen over 50% of the rushes. In fact, over those two weeks, Jacobs has played an average of 56% of the snaps compared to 41% for Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs has handled 46% of the rushes to 40% for Wilson. Jacobs is running more routes but neither of the running backs are seeing much target value. Yes, Jacobs is seeing more of the work inside the five-yard line, but he’s playing fewer
snaps in the two-minute drill and Jacobs has seen 54% of the long down-and-distance snaps while Wilson has taken 42%, so this is looking more like a straight up committee than we’d like to see.
Jacobs can still be productive in fantasy with that workload because he’s a talented back and the offense is good, but he’s looking like more of a mid-range RB2 and not an RB1. According to Fantasy Calc, this week he was traded straight up for Drake London, straight up for Davante Adams, straight up for Chris Olave, with Brandon Aiyuk for Saquon Barkley, and with Kyle Pitts for Tee Higgins and Dalton Kincaid. All of that suggests it can’t hurt to float some trade offers in your league.
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers
I had Chubba Hubbard on here last week, and I’m going to keep him on here because the rationale hasn’t changed much. With Andy Dalton under center, the Panthers offense looked great, and Hubbard exploded for 22 fantasy points or more in each of the last two games. In those two games, he has a 66% snap share and 67% rush share with a 13% target share, so Miles Sanders is cutting into some of the work but not enough to really matter. Yet, we know that Jonathan Brooks, the Panthers’ second-round draft pick, is lurking. The team did not open his practice window this week, but they can at any time, and Dave Canales has said he’s not far away. While Brooks may not immediately take over the starting role, he is going to build up to the lead share in this backfield. That means the time is now to explore moving on from Hubbard because once it’s made clear that Brooks is coming back, the return you can get for Hubbard will be way worse.
This week, Hubbard was traded straight up for Drake London, was traded straight up for Amari Cooper, was traded with Khalil Shakir for DeVonta Smith, and was traded with Davante Adams for Ja’Marr Chase. I would take all of those in a heartbeat.
Jerome Ford - RB, Cleveland Browns
Ford is in pretty much the same situation as Chuba Hubbard since the Browns have already designated Nick Chubb to return from the PUP list. That means Chubb needs to be activated within the next 21 days, so Ford has a clear end date for his usefulness, we just can’t be sure exactly when that will come which may allow you to move him now. However, if you hold until Chubb comes back, Ford will lose all trade value like we just saw with Zach Charbonnet when Kenneth Walker came back.
According to Fantasy Calc, this week Ford was traded straight up for Diontae Johnson, traded straight up for Jonathan Brooks, traded straight up for Zay Flowers, and traded with Jerry Jeudy for Brandon Aiyuk. You can still get value if you move Ford now.
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Straight Sell
Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.
D’Andre Swift- RB, Chicago Bears
I had Swift on here last week and I mentioned that you could wait for one good game and then try to sell. Well, that good game happened this past week with Swift totaling 165 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Coming into that game, Swift was averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues, which made him RB42. While Swift had a great day in Week 4, he also continued to split snaps with Roschon Johnson. In the two weeks that Johnson has been back, Swift has taken 58% of the snaps to 36% for Johnson. Swift has handled 52% of the rushes to 27% for Johnson, and Swift has a 54% route participation rate to 34% for Johnson. So it’s not 1A/1B situation, but Swift is a part of a committee. Handling just 52% of the rush share is not ideal, and he was down to 46% in Week 3 when he struggled so the Bears may ride the hot hand a bit here. To me, that’s reason enough to get out of the Swift business for now.
According to Fantasy Calc, Swift was traded on Tuesday straight up for Brian Thomas Jr., traded straight up for Travis Etienne, and traded with Brian Robinson for Kyren Williams, among other trades. According to the Fantasy Life Trade analyzer, getting Swift for Etienne is a huge win as is that package to get Kyren. You could even get rid of Swift to add the potential future value of Jonathon Brooks, who is set to return any week now. I like all of those moves for Swift, so let somebody else believe in last week’s explosion.
