Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders
It’s been a quiet few weeks for Robinson thanks to an injury and then a sluggish team performance against the Bears this weekend. The running back is averaging just 11.7 points in half-PPR formats over the last three weeks and handled just 24% of the rushes in Week 5 and 34% in Week 7. However, despite playing on just 46% of snaps in Week 8, he handled 64% of rushes with 60% of the short-down and distance snaps for the Commanders. But here’s the kicker, the Commanders have had just one rush inside the five-yard line in the last two weeks, which has capped Robinson’s ceiling. I still believe his role in this Commanders’ offense gives him the upside to be a low-end RB1 in all fantasy formats when the Commanders are in a neutral or positive gamescript, and so I’d be seeing what it takes to add him in my fantasy leagues.
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills
People were buying Cooper everywhere two weeks ago when he was traded to the Bills, but we’ve seen two straight games now where he hasn’t been a huge part of the offense and rookie Keon Coleman has started to emerge as a legitimate playmaker. In reality, that’s by design as the Bills are taking it slow in getting Cooper up to speed in their offense, but you might have a fantasy manager in your league who is panicking. Cooper played even more snaps in Week 8 than he did the week before, and even though the Bills WANT to run the football, there will be games where they are going to have to throw. We know Josh Allen wants to push the ball down the field, and we know he doesn’t have a problem throwing into tight windows, so I still think Cooper will be a WR2 from here on out, and you might find a fantasy manager in your league who is just tired of waiting.
Raheem Mostert - RB, Miami Dolphins
I know it’s weird to say to buy the dip on a player who just scored a touchdown but Mostert is still far under-performing our expectations of him coming into the season. Mostert played on 40% of the snaps in Week 8, seeing 33% of the rushes, while running a route on 38% of dropbacks. Those numbers are all behind De’Von Achane, and Mostert is clearly the number two here. However, Mostert also handled 100% of the rushes inside the five-yard line, which is why he was able to score his touchdown. That red zone role is not going to go away, and it’s why Mostert led the NFL in touchdowns last year. With the Dolphins’ offense finally healthy, Mostert is a fringe RB2 now who has the path to be an RB1 if Achane were to suffer another injury. That makes him an incredibly valuable player to have on your roster.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Cedric Tillman - WR, Cleveland Browns
Last week, we had David Njoku as a buy high, so we’ll pivot to his teammate Cedric Tillman here. With Amari Cooper, Tillman has run a route on 87% of dropbacks, seen a 24% target share, 35% of the Browns’ air yards, and 38% of their end zone targets. That has led to an average of 22.5 points in full-PPR formats, and you certainly love to see that. Now, I don’t think he’s going to put up 20 points a game, but the fantasy manager in your league might be thinking that Tillman is a “sell high” after his explosive week 8 game; however, I think Tillman is firmly on the WR2/3 border with the chance for huge blow-up games if Jameis Winston continues to start. If you were in a good spot with your running backs, I would trade somebody like Rhamondre Stevenson or Raheem Mostert for Tillman, and you could potentially even trade another receiver like Ladd McConkey, who is in a far less pass-friendly offense.
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Bucs
I would also be buying high on Cade Otton, who looks set to take on a major role in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hurt. Otton ran a route on 84% of dropbacks this week, with a 24% target share while hauling in nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. While the touchdowns might be flukey, Otton also had 75% of the end zone targets, so that’s always going to help put up fantasy goodness. The manager in your league added Otton on the wire and might have another solid tight end on the roster. With Mike Evans likely back in three weeks, that fantasy manager might be looking to take what they can get for Otton now, especially coming off a big game, but Otton has a 19% target share on the season, so I think he will remain relevant even after Evans is back, likely remaining on the TE1 fringe for the rest of the season. If you have good depth at WR, you could maybe trade away Calvin Ridley to get Otton or Josh Downs, who is also coming off a big week. The Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer says both of those trades benefit the person trading AWAY Otton, but you can use that to your advantage to push the trade over the finish line if you have the WR depth to lose.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price - a strike price - if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Jalen McMillan - WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
We mentioned Otton above, but Jalen McMillan also saw a big boost in usage with Evans and Godwin out. The results weren’t there, but McMillan ran a route on 90% of dropbacks, which was the most among all receivers. He also had a 15% target share, 28% of the team’s air yards (the most on the team), and the only end zone targets that didn’t go to Otton. The Bucs could certainly bring in another receiver at the trade deadline, but for the next three weeks, McMillan looks like WR1 in Tampa Bay, and that will lead to more production than he put up in Week 8.
Xavier Legette - WR, Carolina Panthers
It’s hard to buy into many pieces for the Panthers with Bryce Young under center, but we’ve been hearing plenty of trade rumors around BOTH Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen for a while now and Johnson was just sent to Baltimore on Tuesday afternoon. If Thielen is also moved at the deadline, that will mean Legette is the WR1 in Carolina. In Week 8 that led to 63% of the snaps, 21% of the targets, 39% of the air yards, and 13.4 points in full-PPR formats. That’s not a “league-winner,” but it’s a solid player to have on your bench as we get into bye week madness. His value would be even higher in that role if we got Andy Dalton back under center.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Tank Bigsby - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s important that we remember this is a section about seeing what a player’s value is and not straight selling. If you have Bigsby, you shouldn’t actively WANT to sell him, but with Travis Etienne on his way back from injury, I think it makes sense to look at what you can get for Bigsby. The second-year pro figures to continue to be the early-down rusher with a red zone role, which is incredibly valuable, but Etienne is going to be on the field in passing situations, which means Etienne is likely going to be more valuable if the Jaguars are playing from behind. I believe the Jaguars will be playing from behind more often than not in the coming weeks, so Bigsby may be at his peak value now. Since you likely scooped him up on waivers, you may have other good RBs on your roster, so maybe a trade like Tank Bigsby for Tank Dell, with Diggs now likely out for the season could make some sense, or Tank Bigsby for Jaylen Waddle with Tua now back in Miami. Those are both trades that the Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer likes a little more for the team getting the wide receivers.
On top of that, the Jaguars just traded away left tackle Cam Robinson, so this offensive line is now going to be worse. Will other players be on the move too?
Straight Sell
Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans
I had to blurb the Titans game for Rotoworld this weekend, and I watched as Calvin Ridley went over 100 yards receiving in the first half and ended with 15 targets while the next-closest receiver had just six. That was good for an elite 38% target share. However, Mason Rudolph was playing out of his head early in the game, and the production fell off quickly after that. The Titans will likely want to see Will Levis under center for a few more games before deciding if they need to take a quarterback in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft or not, and that will likely tank Ridley’s value again. Two weeks ago, you might not have been able to get anything for Ridley, but I think you could maybe flip him for a wide receiver in a more reliable role, like Jakobi Meyers or Darnell Mooney, or maybe even trade him for a bench stash running back like Bucky Irving or perhaps even take a flier on Isiah Pacheco coming back later in the season.
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers
We already knew the Panthers were not a good offense, but now it’s looking likely that BOTH Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen will be traded at the deadline, which means this offense will get even worse. However, Hubbard is playing on about 80% of snaps for the Panthers and dominating the rushes, and head coach Dave Canales said last week that it’s possible the team won’t activate Jonathon Brooks this season. That may provide you a small opening to trade Hubbard now if you can find a fantasy manager in your league who thinks they might be getting a team’s top running back who they can use as a bye week or injury fill-in. Don’t expect much in return for him, but if I could get an upside wide receiver like Cedric Tillman, Keon Coleman, or even a Jakobi Meyers type, I would take it right now.
