Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
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Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
Javonte Williams - RB, Denver Broncos
Look, I don’t really want to buy exposure to the Broncos offense, but we also need to acknowledge the role that Williams has had since Tyler Badie went down with an injury. In this past week’s loss to the Chargers, Williams had just 23 rushing yards on six carries and 13 receiving yards on three receptions. However, he played the most snaps of his season with a 68% snap share, and, perhaps more importantly, the Broncos kept him on the field in passing situations with a 63% route participation. I’m not suggesting that Williams is going to become a “league winner,” but we also don’t see that kind of usage from running backs that often. He could emerge as a low-end RB2 in fantasy leagues with how much the Broncos want to run the football. If you can get him for a low cost to add to the RB depth on your team, I think that could wind up being the smart play. Maybe you can find somebody to take a gamble on Calvin Ridley for Williams or JuJu Smith-Schuster after his big week last week. The Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer even suggests that moving Christian Kirk to get Williams makes sense, so maybe that’s a play you can make.
David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns
I’m not really sure if this is “buying the dip,” but it’s certainly not “buying high,” so I guess I’ll put Njoku here because after the Browns traded Amari Cooper to the Bills, I think you want to snag Njoku if you can. The tight end is averaging just 6.3 fantasy points per game in PPR formats this year and Deshaun Watson has been arguably the worst quarterback in football, so there is a chance that the fantasy manager in your league is just done with Njoku. It’s understandable, and I know buying Njoku also feels gross but he saw solid usage on Sunday with a 67% route participation rate and 32% of the Browns’ targets. It didn’t amount to much, but you have to imagine both of those numbers are going to tick up with Cooper out of town and Njoku continuing to get healthier. He will still be attempting to catch passes from Deshaun Watson, so it’s unlikely that Njoku will become a game-breaker at tight end, but anytime you can get a tight end with elite athleticism and a substantial target share, it’s a risk that’s certainly worth taking.
Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons
Last week, I had Mooney as a “buy high” and then he went out and had just three catches for 38 yards. If anybody in your league is now thinking “Shoot, I should have sold high last week,” you should make sure you’re there to support them.
As I mentioned last week, I featured Mooney in my Post Hype Sleepers article from the preseason, but even I didn’t expect he’d be this good. In that article, I said “Zac Robinson should install a far more pass-heavy system than the one the Falcons were using under Arthur Smith who wanted to run the ball and use lots of two tight end sets. That should benefit all the receiving weapons in Atlanta, especially considering they’ll be catching passes from Cousins, who ranks first in the NFL in accuracy on passes 20+ yards downfield over the last four seasons, per Sharp Football. With Mooney’s deep speed, that could lead to a connection that gives us some big boom weeks in fantasy football.”
But here’s the thing, in that article I said Mooney would be the fourth option in the Falcons passing attack when he is operating ahead of Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts in terms of targets. Even in his poor week in Week 6, he ran a route on 93% of dropbacks but saw just a 15% target share with an aDOT of 6.8 yards. Considering his season-long aDOT is 11.8 yards, there is no reason to think he’s suddenly playing a different role. The Falcons were controlling the game against the Panthers and didn’t have to air it out the way they did in previous weeks, which impacted Mooney. But, again, you were counting on him as a WR3 not a locked-in starter in fantasy, so there will be some up-and-down weeks. I still want him on my team.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Demario Douglas - WR, New England Patriots
The Patriots turned the offense over to Drake Maye and even though much of his production happened with the game well out of reach, he undoubtedly made the Patriots offense better. As a rookie quarterback, he’s going to miss some throws and make some poor decisions, but he also can escape the pocket and make things happen, which is good news for the playmakers on New England. There may not be a better playmaker on offense than Demario Douglas. In his first game with Maye, Douglas posted six catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Douglas was third on the Patriots in snaps and routes run, but he had more than double the targets of any other receiver. If the Patriots start to get him on the field even more, he could be in for more big games with Maye under center and be a WR3 in fantasy football; yet, I don’t think he’s priced that way yet.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price - a strike price - if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Tennessee Titans
The suggestion to “buy” on Hopkins is to try to get him for next to nothing in the hopes of future production. Part of that could be via trade since I covered Hopkins in my recent article of wide receivers most likely to be traded, but the other reason we may see some positive regression for Hopkins is that he’s DeAndre Hopkins, and he’s finally getting healthy after tearing his MCL in July. He played the second-most snaps, ran the second-most routes, and saw the most targets on the team this past Sunday. His 70% route participation rate was easily the highest of the season for him, and he has now led the Titans in target share for three straight weeks. We know the Titans are going to be trailing often, which should lead to more days where Hopkins can corral four or five catches for 50-70 yards. If that also comes with a touchdown then you have a decent day. Now, if he also moves to a team like Kansas City or New Orleans, you’ll be really happy to make a small trade to put him on your bench now.
Fantasy Calc, which is a website that tracks trades across all league types, has shown that Hopkins has been traded straight up this week for Justice Hill, Mack Hollins, Allen Lazard, and Ray Davis. The value for this All-Pro wide receiver is at rock bottom right now, so it won’t cost you much to add him to your bench and cross your fingers.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
As my colleague Pat Daughtery mentioned on our Sunday podcast, the fantasy managers in your league may tell you to lose their number if you try to give them Harris because we’ve seen him be inconsistent for so long, but we also know the Steelers want to run the ball and Harris is coming off a game in which he racked up 122 total yards and a touchdown. Given how many fantasy managers are dealing with running back injuries, it’s possible that somebody sees some security in Harris’ role and is interested in making a small deal for him. You should do that because Harris was uncharacteristically efficient on Sunday. With Jaylen Warren back, Najee Harris played on just 48% of snaps, handled 48% of the rushes, and saw his route participation rate fall to 36%. And that was with Warren clearly not 100%. This feels like a situation where Harris is going to get 12-16 touches per game with Warren healthy, and I think the Steelers removing the threat of Justin Fields running the ball is going to hurt Harris’ efficiency as he becomes more of a focal point for the front seven defenders.
If your running backs are in a good spot, you could make a small deal and trade Harris for an upside WR3 like Jameson Williams, which the Fantasy Life Trade analyzer likes, or maybe target a currently injured player like Puka Nacua if the manager who has him needs production now. The Fantasy Life Trade Analyzer doesn’t like that trade for the manager getting Nacua, but that’s only because it might be another two weeks before he’s back. If you’re at 4-2 or better in your fantasy leagues, maybe that’s a gamble you can take.
Keenan Allen - WR, Chicago Bears
Playing against the Jaguars defense is certainly a balm to soothe any wound. Keenan Allen has had a dreadful start to 2024, but he was able to put up 21.1 PPR points on Sunday thanks to two touchdowns and 41 yards receiving on five catches. The Bears have looked good of late, and there may be some managers in your league who believe Allen is starting to get healthy and that this week is the start of some solid production with Caleb Williams. We can certainly see that in some leagues since, according to Fantasy Calc, Allen was traded this week for DeVonta Smith and with Najee Harris for Travis Kelce. I know referencing trades like this is an inexact science, but I think it gives us a little sense of what the perception of Allen is across fantasy platforms, and those are both trades that I would make in a heartbeat.
Allen did have a 94% route participation rate and a 21% target share to go along with 35% of the team’s air yards, but I think this week is the outlier. This is the first time he’s had an equal target share to DJ Moore, and he also benefited from Rome Odunze having just an 8% target share. With Cole Kmet also posting a 21% target share this past week, there are four mouths to feed in this offense, which is going to make consistent production hard to rely on. When you combine that with the easy opponent they faced on Sunday, it seems like a perfect “sell high” moment for Allen. If you think the trades above are a bit far-fetched, you could also, if you’re in a good position with your wide receivers trade Allen for Jonathon Brooks, Tank Bigsby, or even Javonte Williams.
Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts
This is more about Downs’ quarterback situation than his own talents. With Joe Flacco under center, Downs is a tremendous fantasy option. Over the last three weeks, Downs has averaged 19.5 points per game in PPR formats while running a route on 73% of dropbacks and seeing a 29% target share. All of that is tremendous, and if Joe Flacco remained the quarterback in Indianapolis, I would not suggest trading Downs at all. However, my concern is that Downs is seeing an 81% catchable target rate and has an average depth of target of just 5.6 yards. That means Downs is doing most of his damage on easy catches close to the line of scrimmage and earning his points after the catch. That’s great when you have an immobile quarterback like Flacco under center, but when Anthony Richardson comes back, many of those types of passes are going to turn into runs. Not only will Richardson not throw short passes close to the line of scrimmage as much as Flacco, but he’s far less accurate than Flacco is in that area of the field, so Downs’ 81% catchable target rate is going to plummet as well.
The reason Downs is in the “run a process” section is because I like him and I don’t feel that I HAVE to trade him, but I think now is the time to see how the market values him after his strong stretch because the change back to Richardson could make him more of a borderline WR3/4 in most formats.
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Straight Sell
Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.
Christian Kirk - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Now, Kirk is not a cut, so it’s important to differentiate that, but I’m trying to add him into trades as a sweetener or find anybody who believes in his previous upside. I believe Brian Thomas is the WR1 in Jacksonville now, and with Evan Engram back from injury, Kirk saw a 17% target share in Week 6 and just 20% of the team’s air yards. He has now played on under 80% of snaps in each of the last two weeks, and that’s with Gabe Davis battling an injury of his own. I think the return of Engram creates a situation where there are too many targets in Jacksonville, and Trevor Lawrence is simply not playing good enough football to feed them all. You can see if Kirk has a good game against the Patriots this week and then try to move off of him, but I think he’s going to be too inconsistent to trust in most fantasy formats unless there’s an injury to a Jaguars pass catcher.
