We’re heading into Week 12 of the NFL season which means the fantasy football playoffs are inching closer. You may already have a spot locked up or perhaps you need to win the rest of your matchups to get in but regardless, we’re now firmly at the time of year where you need to be planning weeks in advance, which includes having your defenses set to go.
To help with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank all the defenses for Weeks 13-17. I took my standard BOD Formula (pasted below) which I use to calculate the most trustworthy fantasy defenses and then I input each team’s opponents for the five weeks starting with Week 13 (dividing by games played so the teams with bye weeks aren’t hurt in their overall score). I then took that number and added it to each defense’s average fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, multiplied by 1.5 to give it a little extra weight. That means the Playoff Score takes into account each team’s success over the past six weeks plus their upcoming schedule.
How Do I Use This Rankings?
Since I use recent fantasy points scored per game and also use an offense’s points allowed to opposing defenses as part of this formula, that means that these rankings will likely change incrementally week after week as teams change their overall performance and offensive rankings change which impacts the ease of the matchup. As a result, my advice for how to best use this article is to get a sense of which teams are set up best for playoff success but use the color-coded chart below to try and find two defenses that you can put on your roster to rotate matchups and avoid having to start any defenses in a subpar matchup.
The matchups highlighted in green are the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy defenses, according to performance over the last month (teams ranked 32nd to 23rd) and the matchups highlighted in red are the 10 hardest matchups (10th to 1st, obviously). You’ll see some additional comments below that help to clarify some of those rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
Important Rankings Notes
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a couple of quick notes about how each team is ranked as an opponent that you need to know.
- I used the average fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses for the last month so that we can get the most accurate representation of how the teams are playing at this moment.
- For the Colts, I took the average points per game allowed to defenses in games where Anthony Richardson started (just six points per game), and I ranked them based on where that would place them, which was 19th.
- For the Seahawks, Texans, and Bucs offenses, I used their season-long rankings because their last four weeks were heavily skewed by not having DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, and Mike Evans in the lineup but all of them are healthy now.
- We don’t yet know what the Giants offense will look like with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, but I made them the third-best matchup for opposing fantasy defenses because that felt like a solid adjustment from where they currently sit as the sixth-best matchup.
Rest of Season Rankings
These are three of the six highest-scoring defenses over the last six weeks of the season, and they are three of the highest-ranking defenses in my BOD rankings, which, as I mentioned above, have been updated to reflect performance over the last six weeks. The Vikings are lurking just outside the top 10 in those rankings but have performed well for fantasy, so, as a result, these feel like four of the safest defenses that you can have in fantasy football right now. You may want to pair them with another defense for the weeks where they’re facing an opponent marked in red above, but I wouldn’t drop any of them and I’d start them in any matchup that isn’t red.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Lions paired with Bears, Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, and Packers
- Vikings paired with Texans, Commanders, Chiefs, and Cardinals
- Eagles paired with Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Bucs
- Seahawks paired with Steelers, Cardinals, Bengals, Titans, Bucs, Saints, or Jaguars.
This tier features the rest of my top 5 BOD defenses, which is why they continue to be ranked high despite some tough matchups mixed in for the remainder of the season.
The Bills have potentially solid matchups in Week 16 and 17, so they may rise in these rankings in the coming weeks, but those first three matchups are brutal. The Bills also have a stranglehold on the AFC East, so we don’t know what motivation they’ll have for those games. It’s likely that they’ll still be playing for seeding but something to keep in mind.
The Cardinals have come on of late, averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks which, when paired with this solid schedule, makes them a really intriguing defense for the fantasy football playoffs.
The Colts are the only defense not on the top ten fringe that featured in this tier and you can see why if you look at the color coding of the chart. You will have to maneuver around a Week 14 bye and potentially around a Week 15 showdown with the resurgent Broncos; however, the other three matchups are strong and those final two matchups could win you your league.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Colts paired with Vikings, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers and Bengals
- Bills paired with Steelers, Cardinals, and Bengals
- Cardinals paired with Seahawks, Colts, Bills, and Jaguars
This is an interesting group because it’s three defenses I still have in my top ten who have difficult matchups and three defenses my BOD rankings are not as high on who have really nice schedules. It’s a perfect barometer for the test of whether you would rather go with a good defense and a safe floor or chase upside with a mediocre defense in a good spot.
The Rams have been the third highest-scoring defense in fantasy football over the last six weeks, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game, so it feels weird suggesting that they’re not a defense you can use in the playoffs, but their schedule is downright brutal. I’ve tried to target the Saints with opposing defenses since they lost both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but it has been a terrible play. I could still see playing the Rams against them because the Rams have performed so well, but it’s a bit of a risky matchup. I also can see playing the Rams against the Jets, but those three matchups in red should be avoided if at all possible, so maybe you hold onto the Rams but be sure to pair them with the right defense (suggestions below).
The Bengals have a tremendous schedule the rest of the way with no truly bad matchups. However, the Bengals have not been a strong defense this season and rank 18th in my BOD rankings over the last six weeks. I’d feel more comfortable with using the Bengals as a supporting defense to one of the truly strong defenses we’ve seen throughout the year.
POSSIBLE PAIRINGS
- Bengals paired with Commanders, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, and Bears
- Rams paired with Eagles, Cardinals, and Bengals
- Chargers paired with Ravens, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Bengals
- Broncos paired with Chargers, Cardinals, Bucs, Bengals, Titans and Saints
We’re now getting outside of the most consistently solid defenses except for Cleveland, who is one of the last remaining top-ten defenses for me. However, they don’t have any good matchups left. Now, none of them are really terrible, but it’s hard to feel optimistic about firing up the Browns in any of those games, so I’d rather find another defense.
Chicago has been a defense we’ve trusted most of the season, but they’ve been slipping of late and have three brutal games ahead of them that I can’t see playing them for. You could keep Chicago on your roster by pairing them with the right defense, and I’ll go over some options below, but you need to handle them strategically.
The Bucs are also a trendy defense to use for the postseason, but with the Panthers looking far more competent of late, it’s hard to get as excited about the Bucs defense as we would have been a few weeks ago. Plus, they just lost starting safety Jordan Whitehead for the season, which is a major blow to that defense.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Bears paired with Bucs, Cardinals, and Bengals
- Bucs paired with Lions, Colts, Broncos, and Chiefs
I can’t see using any of these defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
