We’re one week away from the fantasy football playoffs, so it’s time to update our playoff defense (DST) rankings. You may already have a spot locked up or perhaps you need to win this week to get in but regardless, we’re now firmly at the time of year where you need to be planning weeks in advance, which includes having your defenses set to go.
To help with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank the defenses for Weeks 15-17. I took my standard BOD Formula (pasted below) which I use to calculate the most trustworthy fantasy defenses and then I input each team’s opponents for three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. I then took that number and added it to each defense’s average fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, multiplied by 1.5 to give it a little extra weight. That means the Playoff Score takes into account each team’s success over the past six weeks plus their upcoming schedule.
How Do I Use This Rankings?
Since I use recent fantasy points scored per game and also use an offense’s points allowed to opposing defenses as part of this formula, that means that these rankings will likely change incrementally week after week as teams change their overall performance and offensive rankings change which impacts the ease of the matchup. As a result, my advice for how to best use this article is to get a sense of which teams are set up best for playoff success but use the color-coded chart below to try and find two defenses that you can put on your roster to rotate matchups and avoid having to start any defenses in a subpar matchup.
The matchups highlighted in green are the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy defenses, according to performance over the last month (teams ranked 32nd to 23rd) and the matchups highlighted in red are the 10 hardest matchups (10th to first, obviously). You’ll see some additional comments below that help to clarify some of those rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR LOSS OR NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
Important Rankings Notes
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a couple of quick notes about how each team is ranked as an opponent that you need to know.
- I used the average fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses over the last month to get the most accurate representation of how the teams are playing at this moment.
- When a team’s ranking drastically differed over the last four weeks compared to the season and didn’t have a major injury to blame, I averaged their ranking over the last four weeks with their season-long ranking to try and put together a more accurate picture. I did that for all of Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, Arizona, and the Los Angeles Chargers, so that’s why you’ll see some duplicate rankings.
- The Saints will now be without Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. I gave them a slight hit from their season-long ranking and ranked them 26th, which makes them the 7th-best matchup for opposing defenses.
- The Raiders will now, likely, be starting Desmond Ridder for the remainder of the season, so I took their ranking and knocked them down to 30th overall, which made them the 3rd-best matchup for fantasy defenses.
- Yes, I know it’s weird to see Carolina as a bad matchup, but the truth is that they have been since Bryce Young was back in the starting lineup. It feels a bit flukey, but the offensive line has been great all season and this performance has been going on for six weeks now, so I decided to leave it as is.
Rest of Season Rankings
The Eagles have been my top-ranked defense for the last two months and are averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, so this isn’t a surprise. The Steelers and Commanders aren’t smash spot matchups, but they’re also just average matchups for fantasy defenses over the last month and the Cowboys are also a solid matchup, so you have a strong defense with no subpar matchups, and that’s about as safe as you can get in the fantasy playoffs.
The Broncos are my third-ranked defense over the last six weeks and are averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game over that span. They don’t have an easy matchup on their schedule, but they also don’t have a matchup we truly want to avoid, and so I think that makes Denver pretty safe at this point. Even with a tough schedule, I think you can count on them for the playoffs but maybe pair them with one of the defenses I mentioned below.
Same goes for the Seahawks, who have been my fifth-ranked defense over the last six weeks and are averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game over that span. We’d prefer not to use them in Week 15 against the Packers, but you can feel comfortable with them in the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs based on how well they’ve been playing.
The Colts are just outside of my top ten fringe but they make this top tier for one clear reason if you look at the color coding of the chart. You will have to maneuver around the Week 15 showdown with the resurgent Broncos; however, those final two matchups could win you your league.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Eagles paired with Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Bucs
- Broncos paired with Rams, Vikings, Colts, Bengals, or Bucs
- Seahawks paired with Cardinals, Ravens, Commanders, Packers, Chiefs, or Vikings
- Colts paired with Commanders, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers and Ravens
The Lions and Steelers are top-ten defenses for me over the last two months, but their schedules aren’t great for the playoffs, which is why you see them in tier two. I do prefer the Lions because their Week 16 and 17 matchups are stronger, but you’ll need to find a better option for Week 15.
The Bills are finally healthy on defense with Matt Milano back out on the field, but they’re averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Their pass rush isn’t great and they can be beaten on the ground, but they do a good job keeping teams out of the end zone and are third in the NFL in turnover rate over the last two months. The Bills have solid matchups in Week 16 and 17, so they have risen in these rankings in the last few weeks, but that matchup against the Lions is one we want to avoid.
The Vikings are just inside the top 10 in my BOD rankings and have performed well for fantasy, averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. You may want to pair them with another defense so that you can avoid the Packers game in Week 17, but that’s the only one I’m running from.
The Rams and Commanders’ schedules look a lot better than they did three weeks ago now that San Francisco has been hit hard by injuries and the Saints will likely be starting Jake Haener at quarterback the rest of the way. The Falcons have also been a mess on offense for the last five weeks, and this Cardinals offense has come back down to Earth a bit, so the Rams don’t have any truly bad matchups on their schedule, while the Commanders have just one that we want to avoid.
The Packers are the lowest-ranked defense in my season-long rankings who made tier two, but you can see why if you look at the color coding of the chart. The Saints quarterback situation has vaulted the Packers up these rankings and I think you can play them in every matchup; however, I’d prefer to find another option for Week 17 if I could.
I’m a little worried about the Texans, and I could see if people wanted to fade them entirely. They lost Jalen Pitre and we don’t know for how long, and they did not look great against Mac Jones before their bye. The Dolphins and Chiefs both also have the POTENTIAL to be bad matchups for opposing defenses, so it feels hard to trust the Texans against them, but the Texans have also put up some huge scores this year and are a talented overall defense.
The Bucs were also a trendy defense to use for the postseason, but with the Panthers looking far more competent of late, it’s hard to get as excited about the Bucs’ defense as we would have been a few weeks ago. Plus, they just lost starting safety Jordan Whitehead for the season, which is a major blow to that defense.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Steelers paired with Rams, Bengals, Packers Ravens, Falcons,
- Vikings paired with Texans, Commanders, Chiefs, and Cardinals
- Chargers paired with Colts, Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Vikings and Bengals
- Lions paired with Commanders, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals
- Bills paired with Commanders, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals
- Bucs paired with Colts, Lions, Commanders, Chargers, and Saints
We’re now getting outside of the most consistently solid defenses, so you’re just hoping to take advantage of good matchups here.
The Bengals have a tremendous schedule the rest of the way, except for a tough showdown against Denver in Week 17. However, the Bengals have been a poor defense this season and rank 25th in my BOD rankings over the last six weeks. I’d feel more comfortable with using the Bengals as a supporting defense to one of the truly strong defenses we’ve seen throughout the year.
Similarly, you won’t find many better schedules than the ones the Raiders and Jaguars defenses have, but are you really going to trust those defenses with your championship on the line? It would be a bold call.
The Cardinals have come on of late, averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks which is why I got yelled at on Reddit for having them this low in my rankings; however, I’d rather not use them against the Rams and that Panthers matchup doesn’t look as juicy as it did before. As a result, I’d prefer to pair the Cardinals with another defense that I can use for Weeks 16 and 17.
The Chiefs are playable against the Browns in Week 15, but they have averaged just 3.3 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and are not a great
fantasy unit, so I’d rather not play them in those final two weeks.
POSSIBLE PAIRINGS
- Bengals paired with Colts, Seahawks, Commanders, Chargers, and Saints
- Ravens paired with Colts, Bills, Lions, Rams, and Jaguars.
- Cardinals paired with Colts, Bills, Lions, Rams, Packers, and Jaguars
- Saints paired with Packers, Vikings, Bengals, and Chiefs
- Titans paired with Packers, Bengals, and Rams
I can’t see using any of these defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
