We hit on some big defense calls this week, having Green Bay as the number one defense and then watching them finish as the number one defense on the week. We also had the Jets and Seahawks in the top five and watched them finish in the top five as well, so that feels good.
However, beyond the Steelers, we had no other defense finish in the top 10. The 49ers faceplanted against the Rams. The Browns lost outright to the Giants, and the Raiders couldn’t handle Andy Dalton. We also saw the Texans and Bucs take major steps back offensively, which created gamescripts that hurt their defenses and neither of those teams finished inside the top 10 for the week.
The good news is that we now have three weeks of sample size and we can start to see some trends emerging and true performance solidified. I knew Minnesota was a well-coached defense, but I thought they had lost too much talent over the offseason (like Danielle Hunter) to compete with an offense like the Texans. That was clearly wrong. We’re also now seeing just what kind of offense the Panthers can be with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and it’s not a bottom-feeder. Similarly, we’ve been far too bullish on the Bears offense, as Shane Waldron remains an enigma as an offensive coordinator. The Colts allowed 475 yards rushing in TWO GAMES, and the Bears couldn’t run the ball and threw it over 50 times. That offense is an absolute mess.
Maybe it’s time to take these more crystallized lessons into our Week 4 rankings, but we have a doozy of a week because most of the offenses we want to target are facing defenses that have been bad so far this season. Can we trust below-average defenses in good matchups or should we stick to the tried-and-true elite defenses in mediocre ones? It’s a major strategic decision for this week.
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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are. This week, we had five of the top 10 defenses correctly called, which is not great, but I’ll take a 50% hit rate early in the season as we figure out these teams.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 3: 4-6
SEASON-LONG: 14-16 (47%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY x 2) + PASSES DEFENDED RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 4?
Through three weeks, the Bears are my sixth-ranked defense on the BOD formula, and they get a really good matchup against a Rams offense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bears rank second in positive Expected Points Added (EPA) rate allowed, sixth in turnover rate and seventh in opponent’s scoring rate. I know the Rams just beat the 49ers, but I see a top-10 defense against an offense without multiple starting offensive linemen and their two most dynamic offensive weapons. Given how many other top defenses have tough matchups this week, I’m comfortable with the Bears at the top of my rankings.
What a shock; the Steelers are one of the better defenses in football. They rank third in my BOD formula thanks to being second in opponent’s scoring rate, fifth in turnover rate, and eighth in PFF’s Pass Rush Production grade. They’ll now get a Colts offense that is capable of hitting the big play but has seemed hard-pressed to sustain consistent drives. We know the upside that Anthony Richardson has, but this is going to be a tough matchup for him if he continues to be unable to complete passes in the short and intermediate areas of the field. I will admit that ranking defenses this high against the Colts makes me a bit nervous, but I’m going to trust recent results and my formula.
The Jets answered the call in Week 3, and I know it was against a beat-up Patriots offensive line, but do we really doubt the talent of this Jets defense? They rank second in Pass Rush Production, eighth in positive EPA rate allowed, and 15th in turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Broncos give up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the first three games. I know they had a better game plan for Bo Nix in Week 3, but they were also facing a Bucs defense that is snake-bitten with injuries and not on the same level as the Jets. I feel good about the Jets’ ability to make big plays on defense here.
The Chiefs’ ranking is based on my concern for Justin Herbert and the other injuries that have ravaged the Chargers. On Sunday, Herbert reaggravated a high ankle sprain, which usually means missed time. That would leave Taylor Heinicke starting for a Chargers offense that already lacks many offensive weapons and also lost rookie OT Joe Alt and fellow OT Rashawn Slater to injury with both unlikely to play this week. The Chargers have been good at controlling the ball with the run game and relying on their defense, but without Herbert under center and without their two starting offensive tackles, it’s hard to see that working against the Chiefs. While the Kansas City defense has not been great on defense, ranking 15th in turnover rate, 15th in Pass Rush Production grade, 19th in tackles for a loss per game, and 23rd in opponent’s scoring rate, this just feels like a safe floor matchup given the state of the Chargers’ offense.
I’ve been drawn in by this Texans defense twice already this year, and they burned me both times but did you see the Jaguars on Monday Night Football? This is a team that looks completely lost and an offensive line that is having a really hard time protecting their quarterback. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 3rd in Pass Rush Production grade, fifth in passes defended rate, 5th in tackles for a loss per game, and 13th in positive EPA rate allowed. However, they are middle of the pack in turnovers and scoring rate, and they’ve fallen on their face twice. Last week, it was mainly the offense just looking inept against the Vikings that kept putting the defense in a bad spot, so I’m willing to go back to the Texans here even though it scares me.
The Browns are usually an elite defense, but they’ve started out slow this season; and there is some concern in Cleveland that Myles Garrett is dealing with a meaningful foot injury, which is why I recently moved the Browns down into Tier 3. Still, the Browns will face the Raiders, who they should be able to handle easily, which gives us some confidence even though the season-long results haven’t been there. FRIDAY UPDATE: The Raiders have ruled out Davante Adams and Michael Mayer, in addition to a few key defensive pieces, so I’m beginning to think this is a game the Browns will handle pretty easily.
Both the Vikings and Packers defenses have been elite this year, and they rank first and fifth in my BOD rankings, respectively. However, they are also two of the best-coached offenses in football and continue to have tremendous success despite both of them being without their starting quarterbacks. Through three games, the Vikings defense has been better, but the Packers offense gives up the fourth-fewest points to opposing defenses. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense has given up the 14th-fewest, which seems to favor the Packers defense a bit. The Packers should get Jordan Love back on Sunday, which makes this a bit tougher for the Vikings, but perhaps his mobility will be limited enough that it won’t be a major factor. I expect both of these defenses to play well, and while I have a hard time believing you’ll get a high-upside performance from either, I’d prefer the Vikings.
The Dolphins defense has been average this year, ranking 15th in my BOD rankings on the season. However, they rank 10th in Pass Rush Production and 11th in opponent scoring rate and are going up against a Titans offense that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 18 points per game. The Titans’ offensive line gave up eight sacks against the Packers this past Sunday, and they continue to turn the ball over at a high rate, so even if the Dolphins haven’t secured many turnovers so far this year, I think they could get one or two here, and I don’t trust the Titans offense to put up lots of points. All of that makes us happy to roll the dice and play defenses against them.
This ranking for the 49ers is about match-up and also recent injuries. The 49ers defense has not lived up to expectations so far this year and ranks just 17th in my BOD rankings, but they do rank third in passes defended rate and 10th in turnover rate, so it hasn’t been all bad. Their biggest weakness has been allowing chunk plays; however, the Patriots aren’t an offense capable of doing that and we saw how juicy a matchup against the Patriots could be last week against the Jets. Part of that has to do with injuries on the offensive line. The Patriots lost their starting left tackle and were down to their third-string left guard. If those guys can’t get back onto the field this weekend, that could be a big problem against this 49ers front.
The Saints are my fourth-ranked defense so far, and they have been an impressive unit up until this point, ranking third in turnover rate, sixth in opponent scoring rate, and eighth in passes defended rate. Under normal circumstances, I might have them ranked higher, but the Falcons offense is solid and is currently giving up just the 17th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, so it’s not a great spot. However, it’s not a matchup that makes me want to fade the Saints, so they feel like a solid Tier 2 defense this week that is more of a safe floor play than a high-ceiling one.
Seahawks and Lions are two defenses that I don’t quite trust yet in a matchup that could change based on injuries. Yes, the Seahawks are ranked second in my BOD rankings so far, but they have also had a very easy schedule to date, and I can’t shake the voice in my head that believes that’s a large reason for their success. That could change drastically against this Lions offense; however, the Lions may be without Sam LaPorta, who sprained his ankle on Sunday, so we need to keep an eye out for that. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will be without Kenneth Walker again, and while that hasn’t hurt them much so far, we did just mention that they’ve had an easy schedule so far. I feel less confident in the Lions defense and I think the injury to Kenneth Walker is less impactful than one to LaPorta so, for right now, I have the Seahawks a bit higher than the Lions.
The Broncos rank ninth in my BOD rankings thanks to being first in Pass Rush Production grade, fifth in opponent’s scoring rate, and ninth in tackles for a loss per game. The problem is that the Jets are a ball-control offense that gives up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing defenses so far. This just feels like a game where the Broncos may put up four or five points for fantasy managers, so I don’t love chasing that.
The Bills and Ravens are two teams that we usually like to target as fantasy defenses, but it’s hard to do so when they play against one another since the Ravens are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Bills are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points. I know what Buffalo just did to the Jaguars, but this is still a defense without Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, and Terrell Bernard, and that worries me with backup linebackers against Lamar Jackson.
The Cowboys, like the Browns, are usually an elite defense that has started out slow this season and lost outright on Sunday. Now they will face an opponent they should be able to handle with ease, which gives us a little bit of confidence, but the Giants seem to have found a little bit of an offensive identity by aggressively targeting Malik Nabers and relying on Devin Singletary on the ground. Thursday night games are also inherently strange, and I’m just not sure how good the Cowboys are this year, so I’ll keep them in Tier 3.
The Chargers rank eighth in my BOD rankings so far and have been a unit under new coordinator Jesse Minter, but they’ve always yet to face a truly strong offense, so going up against the Chiefs will be a different level. We also just discussed that the Chargers offense is banged up, so their offense may continuously put their defense in bad spots against a solid Chiefs offense. We also had an injury to Joey Bosa last week, and Derwin James is currently suspended for one game. We don’t know if James will appeal the suspension, and we’ve yet to find out if Bosa will miss this game, but the Chargers would fall further down my rankings if even one of those guys is confirmed to be out. With a bye coming up next, it’s probably time to drop the Chargers defense in your leagues.
On one hand, the Dolphins offense looked brutal last week and now may have to move to their third-string quarterback with Skylar Thompson getting hurt on Sunday. (However, Tyler Huntley may be outright better if they think he knows the offense well enough to play). On the other hand, the Titans defense ranks 27th in my BOD rankings and has been a pretty bad fantasy defense this season. In most circumstances, I wouldn’t want to play them; however, the Titans rank 15th in opponent’s scoring rate and 16th in yards allowed per carry thanks to a hulking defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and De’Vondre Sweat. I don’t expect the Titans to make many big plays on defense, but this could be an ugly grind-it-out type of punt-fest that allows the Titans’ defense to post a solid five or six points in fantasy leagues.
The Bengals are a mess. I don’t really know what else to say. The Commanders have been a decent offense so far this season, and Jayden Daniels was out of his head on Monday Night Football, but the Bengals defense has also not stepped up at all so far this year. We just saw Andy Dalton transform this Panthers offense in a win over the Raiders this past weekend, and while that has the feeling of a little Cinderella magic dust, I think he unquestionably makes this team better. We can no longer just target the Panthers with any defense, and the Bengals have not proven to be a defense we can trust in an average matchup.
We have the Rams and Raiders defenses in solid matchups but as two defenses that have been fairly mediocre so far this season, which makes it hard to lean into them too much. I know others will want to pay the Colts, but the Steelers play a ball-control style of offense and haven’t made many mistakes at all for the first three games, which makes it tough to trust a Colts team that has a major issue stopping the run.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
