You asked for playoff defense rankings and now you’ve got ‘em. Below you’ll find my full playoff rankings for DST units as well as a weekly breakdown of who is facing who so that you can plan your perfect playoff pairing. However, you will not be getting the detailed write-ups that I do each week, so I urge you to PLEASE READ THE NOTES BELOW TO UNDERSTAND THE CHART.
- These rankings are calculated based on FULL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE. That means some teams may be ranked high because they never have a bad matchup, so keep that in mind and don’t simply assume the higher-ranked defense will be better each individual week of the playoffs.
- The playoff score you’ll see on the chart was calculated using a team’s BOD rankings (which is their season-long ranking in my formula) plus their last six weeks’ fantasy points per game (to weigh in recent performance) plus the average matchup rankings for each week of the playoffs (to factor in opponent quality).
- Each team is listed with their opponents for each week. The ranking you see connected to the opponent is the fantasy points per game allowed to defenses over the last month (again, to account for recent performance). Teams ranked first or second give up the least points per game, while teams that rank 32nd and 31st give up the most.
- I’ve highlighted the “plus” matchups in green and the “bad” matchups in red so you can easily spot them.
- PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THESE RANKINGS ARE BASED ON THIS MOMENT AND NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POTENTIAL FUTURE VALUE. Yes, the Steelers show up here as the 11th-hardest matchup because they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest points per game to fantasy defenses over the last month. That could certainly change in the coming weeks with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback; however, Pittsburgh also allows the tenth-fewest points on the season, so they’ve never really been a great matchup because of how run-heavy they are. The point is that I’m trying to take into account how teams are performing currently, but we all know that may not mean that level of performance remains consistent in the future.
- Some of the teams that are eliminated from playoff contention may start playing younger players more, which could change these matchups in terms of toughness. We just don’t yet know who will do that or if the impact will be positive or negative, so it’s just something you need to keep an eye on personally and trust your own gut feeling on how that will impact teams.
With that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings, which I’ll update after each week of the playoffs.
Top 10 Playoff Defenses
We’ve seen some fluctuation here as the Houston offense has come down to earth a little bit after previously ranking as one of the five toughest matchups for opposing defenses. That has helped the Browns’ ranking here. Yet, we’ve also seen Houston rise up these playoff rankings since the Titans offense continues to flounder with Will Levis at quarterback, and they are now a top-ten matchup for opposing fantasy defenses.
The Bills have also climbed the rankings thanks to the Chargers offense’s freefall and will likely climb the rankings even higher now that Easton Stick is at quarterback instead of Justin Herbert.
The Broncos are criminally under-rostered at just 10% across league types right now. They’ve averaged 10.4 fantasy points over the last six weeks and have a really nice schedule to close the season.
You may be surprised to find the Colts at 8th given how well they’ve played of late, but they were a fairly mediocre defense before a four week stretch against the Panthers, Patriots, Bucs, and Titans and they scored just five points against the Jake Browning-led Bengals last week. They are scoring a lot of fantasy points due to defense and special teams touchdowns, so we need to be cautious. Also, Pittsburgh and Atlanta may be mediocre real-life offenses, but they’re not great fantasy matchups because they’re very run-heavy teams that don’t allow a lot of sacks. That means their games are low scoring, but they don’t give defenses a chance to force many turnovers or get sacks, which limits fantasy point totals against them.
You’ll also see Dallas and Baltimore down at the bottom of the tier one rankings because their schedules are not great. Dallas has been much worse on the road this year or when they don’t face an offense that’s a top-ten easy matchup, which doesn’t bode well for their ability to put up big point totals against the Bills and Dolphins. The Ravens also have a tough matchup against the 49ers that you really don’t want to start them for and them another risky matchup against the Dolphins.
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Playoff Defenses 11-22
Green Bay has moved into tier two despite ideal final two matchups because the Bucs offense is not friendly to fantasy defenses given how few sacks and turnovers they give up. The Packers are an ideal target to pair with Baltimore or Miami so you can sit Green Bay on your bench in Week 15 and then use them the final two weeks.
The Vikings defense has been strong of late, but they’re impacted here by good recent stretch of games from the Bengals and Packers offense. I know the Packers looked bad on Monday night, but they had been playing great football for a month, which helped them rank as the fourth-worst matchup for fantasy defenses over the last month. Whether you believe that or not depends on if you believe in the progress that Jordan Love is showing or if you think either of Christian Watson or Aaron Jones will return soon. If you don’t believe in Love (sad) then feel free to move up defenses like Minnesota or Tampa Bay.
Pittsburgh, like Minnesota, is another team impacted by the Bengals’ solid run of late. With Jake Browning at quarterback, the Bengals have ranked as the 16th-easiest matchup in the NFL, so right smack dab in the middle of the league. However, both Jacksonville and Indianapolis have really vulnerable secondaries, so that ranking may be propped up by the last two weeks. If you believe in Browning, then you can follow this chart, but if you remain skeptical then you can move the Vikings and Steelers both up.
Playoff Defenses 23-32
As I mentioned above, this Rams offensive ranking is based on their average points allowed when Kyren Williams is in the lineup. His presence has made a massive difference this season, which hurts the rankings for teams like the Saints.
#Rams RB Kyren Williams is the key to unlocking the full potential of Sean McVay's offense
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) November 27, 2023
7 games with Kyren:
12.37 Offensive DVOA (7th). 25 points per game. 379 total yards. 4-3 record
4 games without Kyren:
-14.48 Offensive DVOA (28th). 14.25 PPG. 272 total yards. 1-3 record
It’s important to keep an eye on the individual weeks here because that makes a defense like Seattle intriguing. I don’t want to go anywhere near Seattle in Weeks 15 and 17, but if I had a defense that had great matchups then, I wouldn’t mind Seattle’s Week 16 matchup against the Titans. That means, if I had a team like the Browns on my roster, Seattle would be a great pairing. I could play Cleveland in Week 15 against the Bears and Week 17 against the Jets, but I could sit them in Week 16 against the Texans and play Seattle against the Titans instead. Same thing if I had the Falcons. I could play Atlanta in Week 15 against Carolina and Week 17 against Chicago but play Seattle in Week 16 against the Titans. These are the types of pairings we want to get ahead of so that we don’t lose these chances on the wire.
